Anderson Alvarez

P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 161 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.6 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1226ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	3.23	3.64	15.5%	9.3%	—	K 10.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.69
2026	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	4.91	4.83	17.7%	11.5%	—	K 12.0% · BB 14.4% · FIP 6.29
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	—	—	0	5.38	5.38	16.9%	13.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	4	4	19	5.13	5.04	18.6%	11.7%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLB—	6	6	28	4.90	4.79	19.7%	10.8%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWilkel Hernandez (age 19) · Rafael Garcia (age 18) · Blake Wolters (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%16.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	10.6%	11.6%	-1.1%	1.8%	3.23	4.69	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	10.6%	11.6%	-1.1%	1.8%	3.23	4.69	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	15.5%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	3.23	3.64	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	12.0%	14.4%	-2.3%	4.3%	4.91	6.29	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	12.0%	14.4%	-2.3%	4.3%	4.91	6.29	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	13.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.38	5.38	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	9	9	39	165	31	19	5	100%	4.3	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.0%	5.13	5.04	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	8	8	39	165	33	18	5	100%	4.9	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.79	+0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	8	8	40	167	35	17	5	100%	5.0	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.67	4.54	+0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	8	8	40	171	37	16	5	100%	5.1	21.8%	9.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.49	4.38	+0.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	7	7	41	172	38	15	5	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.36	4.27	+0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	7	7	40	169	38	15	5	100%	5.7	22.7%	8.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	7	7	40	171	39	15	5	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.18	+0.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	7	7	39	166	38	15	5	100%	5.6	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.22	+0.5
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	4	4	19	80	15	9	2	100%	4.8	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.0%	5.13	5.04	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	6	6	28	118	23	13	3	100%	4.7	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.79	+0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	6	6	33	139	29	14	4	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.67	4.54	+0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	7	7	36	152	33	14	4	100%	5.1	21.8%	9.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.49	4.38	+0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	7	7	38	160	36	14	4	100%	5.4	22.3%	9.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.36	4.27	+0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	6	6	37	156	35	14	4	100%	6.2	22.7%	8.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.20	+0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	6	6	38	160	37	14	4	100%	6.3	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.18	+0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	6	6	37	156	36	14	4	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.22	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	49	268	1133	247	107	32	100%	5.5	21.8%	9.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.47	4.02	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	184	80	24	100%	5.5	21.8%	9.4%	12.3%	2.8%	4.47	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		22	21	90	387	44	51	13	95%	4.1	11.4%	13.2%	-1.8%	3.3%	4.18	5.62	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	857	98	113	28	95%	4.1	11.4%	13.2%	-1.8%	3.3%	4.18	5.62	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Tampa Bay · 51 IPFIP 4.76 → 6.29 (+1.52)K% 17.7% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.70%	—	×0.680	12.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.50%	—	×1.250	14.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Tampa Bay · 39 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.69 (+1.04)K% 15.5% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.53%	—	×0.680	10.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×1.250	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷0.952	×1.400	1.83%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	16.9%	13.1%	3.1%	—	4.79	19.8%	9.0%	118	-0.59	—	—	—
Wilkel Hernandez R 2018 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP	4.91	13.8%	10.4%	3.0%	.281	3.62	15.4%	8.3%	101	-1.29	3.34	587	87
Rafael Garcia R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP	4.65	14.9%	14.0%	1.9%	.288	7.13	16.0%	-0.4%	50	+2.48	4.65	102	86
Blake Wolters R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP	4.58	13.8%	11.9%	2.1%	.308	6.15	16.8%	0.1%	150	+1.57	4.58	206	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	86
Keiber Arredondo R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	19	SP	5.86	13.0%	13.4%	3.9%	.292	4.00	16.0%	2.7%	93	-1.86	3.61	141	85
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	85
Arlinthon De Dios R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP	5.15	13.0%	11.6%	3.1%	.339	3.73	16.1%	4.6%	36	-1.42	3.73	123	85
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	85
Juan Carela R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP	4.42	17.0%	13.5%	1.9%	.333	4.32	20.8%	9.3%	329	-0.10	4.23	455	85
Miguel Mora R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	17.9%	11.2%	2.2%	.221	4.89	16.6%	-3.6%	107	+0.68	2.95	151	84
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	84
Jacob Miller R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP	4.29	15.0%	11.9%	1.7%	.254	4.20	16.0%	5.5%	301	-0.09	3.85	360	84
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	84
Jonas De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	15.2%	15.3%	2.1%	.326	5.27	18.5%	4.3%	47	+0.37	4.73	130	84
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	84
Mason Thompson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	19	SP	4.32	18.0%	12.3%	2.2%	.288	4.57	16.6%	4.5%	115	+0.25	3.15	350	84
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	39	21.1%	9.9%	1.11	4.61
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*