Anderson Alvarez

Anderson Alvarez P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 18 RHP 5'11" / 161 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.2 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.4%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	10.6%	11.6%	-1.1%	1.8%	3.23	4.69	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	10.6%	11.6%	-1.1%	1.8%	3.23	4.69	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	161	25	15	2	100%	3.9	15.5%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	3.23	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	12.0%	14.4%	-2.3%	4.3%	4.91	6.29	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	12.0%	14.4%	-2.3%	4.3%	4.91	6.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	51	226	40	26	7	92%	4.3	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	12	12	53	223	44	23	6	100%	4.4	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	+0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	12	12	55	234	48	23	7	100%	4.6	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.8%	4.62	4.53	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	12	12	58	246	52	23	7	100%	4.9	21.1%	9.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.40	+0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	12	12	61	258	57	22	7	100%	5.1	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.22	+0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	12	12	63	268	61	22	7	100%	5.3	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.09	+0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	12	12	65	274	64	22	7	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	11	11	66	278	66	22	7	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.99	3.94	+0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	11	11	66	278	67	22	7	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.0%	16.0%	2.6%	3.95	3.92	+0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	11	11	65	274	65	22	7	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+0.7
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	6	6	26	110	22	11	3	100%	4.3	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	+0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	9	9	40	169	35	16	5	100%	4.4	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.8%	4.62	4.53	+0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	10	10	49	207	44	19	6	100%	4.9	21.1%	9.3%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.40	+0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	11	11	55	232	51	20	6	100%	5.0	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.22	+0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	11	11	59	249	57	21	7	100%	5.4	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.09	+0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	11	11	61	258	60	21	7	100%	5.5	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	11	11	63	266	63	21	7	100%	5.7	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.99	3.94	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	10	10	63	266	64	21	7	100%	6.3	23.9%	8.0%	16.0%	2.6%	3.95	3.92	+0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	10	10	62	262	63	21	7	100%	6.2	23.9%	8.1%	15.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.96	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	476	2012	456	172	55	100%	5.4	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.76	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	191	72	23	100%	5.4	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.76	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		22	21	90	387	44	51	13	95%	4.1	11.4%	13.2%	-1.8%	3.3%	4.18	5.62	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	857	98	113	28	95%	4.1	11.4%	13.2%	-1.8%	3.3%	4.18	5.62	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	18.4%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.54	20.5%	10.7%	166	-0.41	—	—	—
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	87
Carlos Jimenez R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	17	SP	4.07	18.1%	12.6%	1.7%	.324	4.66	20.9%	5.2%	104	+0.59	4.07	257	86
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	86
Miguel Mora R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	17.9%	11.2%	2.2%	.221	4.89	16.6%	-3.6%	107	+0.68	2.95	151	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	85
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	85
Manuel Mercedes R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	18	SP	4.69	16.7%	12.4%	2.6%	.350	4.85	12.5%	-1.0%	303	+0.16	3.79	491	85
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	84
Eddy Yean R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	16.8%	10.3%	2.9%	.284	4.81	17.7%	3.4%	120	+0.25	3.76	451	84
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	84
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	19	SP	4.51	15.5%	10.3%	2.6%	.208	4.91	17.8%	4.0%	112	+0.40	4.51	152	83
Listher Sosa R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	17	SP	3.93	16.5%	8.9%	2.0%	.262	4.36	16.5%	7.4%	100	+0.43	3.51	279	83
Andry Lara R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	18	SP-	4.98	19.1%	9.7%	4.1%	.294	4.77	16.6%	6.7%	334	-0.21	4.57	535	83
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	82
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Yorman Gómez R 2021 · 5.48 FIP	18	SP	5.48	15.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.254	4.12	16.4%	5.7%	263	-1.36	3.18	490	82
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	82
Hamlet Garcia R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	17	SP	5.70	14.8%	10.0%	4.7%	.294	5.84	15.1%	-4.2%	64	+0.14	5.36	108	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	58	22.3%	8.8%	1.06	4.27
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43