Wilkel Hernandez
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.8%
IP115
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 1.20 | 3.34 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 12 | 7 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 19 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 10 | 10 | 42 | 182 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 13.8% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 101 | 432 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 15.4% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 3.73 | 3.60 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 14 | 13 | 44 | 189 | 51 | 16 | 4 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 26 | 20 | 106 | 440 | 97 | 31 | 11 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 3.65 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 28 | 27 | 120 | 524 | 108 | 55 | 16 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 4.34 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 34 | 19 | 114 | 497 | 96 | 44 | 14 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 84 | 49 | 16 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 86 | 48 | 16 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 85 | 47 | 16 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 83 | 45 | 16 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 79 | 44 | 15 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 75 | 43 | 15 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 70 | 42 | 15 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 65 | 40 | 14 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 60 | 39 | 14 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 55 | 37 | 14 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 5.59 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 122 | 587 | 2506 | 416 | 246 | 72 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.53 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 42 | 200 | 853 | 142 | 84 | 25 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.53 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilkel Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.06 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 338 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 91 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 91 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 88 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 87 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 87 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 87 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 85 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 85 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 84 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 83 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 83 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 82 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 82 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.