Wilkel Hernandez

Wilkel Hernandez P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%15.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	5	5	15	61	14	6	0	100%	3.0	15.6%	12.3%	3.3%	0.0%	1.20	3.34	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	5	5	15	61	14	6	0	100%	3.0	23.0%	9.8%	13.1%	0.0%	1.20	2.43	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	12	7	44	181	44	22	1	58%	3.7	16.5%	15.2%	1.3%	0.8%	2.64	4.05	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	12	7	44	181	44	22	1	58%	3.7	24.3%	12.2%	12.2%	0.6%	2.64	2.90	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	10	42	182	34	16	4	100%	4.2	13.8%	10.4%	3.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.91	—
2018	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	10	10	42	182	34	16	4	100%	4.2	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	2.2%	4.71	3.86	—
2019	20	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	101	432	90	26	5	100%	4.8	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	1.7%	3.73	3.62	—
2019	20	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	21	101	432	90	26	5	100%	4.8	20.8%	6.0%	14.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.73	—
2022	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	13	44	189	51	16	4	93%	3.1	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.86	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	13	44	189	51	16	4	93%	3.1	27.0%	8.5%	18.5%	2.1%	4.50	3.05	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	20	106	440	97	31	11	77%	4.1	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	3.5%	3.65	4.64	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	20	106	440	97	31	11	77%	4.1	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	3.5%	3.65	4.64	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	26	20	106	440	97	31	11	77%	4.1	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	3.65	3.50	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.9%	4.34	5.29	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.9%	4.34	5.29	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	28	27	120	524	108	55	16	96%	4.3	20.6%	10.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.40	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	16.0%	8.0%	8.1%	3.6%	4.80	4.71	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	16.0%	8.0%	8.1%	3.6%	4.80	4.71	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	34	19	114	497	96	44	14	56%	3.4	19.3%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.80	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	DET	1	1	7	30	4	3	1	100%	7.0	15.2%	9.5%	5.6%	3.4%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	81	341	54	32	12	100%	6.2	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	3.4%	5.21	5.24	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	77	326	58	29	12	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.6%	5.07	5.03	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	72	306	55	28	11	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.7%	5.11	5.17	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	34	144	23	14	5	100%	5.7	15.7%	9.5%	6.2%	3.4%	5.21	5.24	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	35	17	7	100%	5.8	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.6%	5.07	5.03	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	39	20	8	100%	6.4	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.7%	5.11	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	22	131	552	96	50	20	100%	5.9	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.12	4.76	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	76	31	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.12	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		150	122	587	2506	411	239	72	81%	3.9	16.4%	9.5%	6.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.50	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	42	200	853	140	81	24	81%	3.9	16.4%	9.5%	6.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.50	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilkel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	15.2%	9.5%	3.4%	—	5.15	17.2%	8.0%	230	-0.11	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	83
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	82
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	81
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	81
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	81
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	81
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	78
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	77
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	77
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	77
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	78	16.6%	9.2%	1.36	5.16
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43