Wilkel Hernandez
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.45
FIP5.45
K%15.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP81
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.20 | 3.34 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 5 | 15 | 61 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 1.20 | 2.43 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 12 | 7 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 58% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 4.05 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 12 | 7 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 58% | 3.7 | 24.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0.6% | 2.64 | 2.90 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 10 | 10 | 42 | 182 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.8% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 5.02 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 10 | 10 | 42 | 182 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 4.71 | 3.86 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 101 | 432 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 3.73 | 3.74 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 21 | 21 | 101 | 432 | 90 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.8% | 6.0% | 14.8% | 1.2% | 3.73 | 2.73 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 14 | 13 | 44 | 189 | 51 | 16 | 4 | 93% | 3.1 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 14 | 13 | 44 | 189 | 51 | 16 | 4 | 93% | 3.1 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 3.05 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 26 | 20 | 106 | 440 | 97 | 31 | 11 | 77% | 4.1 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 3.65 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 26 | 20 | 106 | 440 | 97 | 31 | 11 | 77% | 4.1 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 28 | 27 | 120 | 524 | 108 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.3 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.34 | 5.43 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 28 | 27 | 120 | 524 | 108 | 55 | 16 | 96% | 4.3 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.40 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 34 | 19 | 114 | 497 | 96 | 44 | 14 | 56% | 3.4 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 5.13 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 34 | 19 | 114 | 497 | 96 | 44 | 14 | 56% | 3.4 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 54 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 56 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 60 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 5.23 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 5.23 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 131 | 552 | 99 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 4.92 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 81 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 122 | 587 | 2506 | 416 | 246 | 79 | 81% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.68 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 42 | 200 | 853 | 142 | 84 | 27 | 81% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilkel Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 15.8% | 10.2% | 3.7% | — | 5.31 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 230 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 83 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 82 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 81 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 79 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 78 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 77 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 77 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 76 |
| Terance Marin R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.01 | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.18 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 88 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 322 | 75 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 75 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 75 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 74 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.94 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .315 | 7.90 | 8.5% | -4.1% | 47 | +2.96 | 3.71 | 361 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 74 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 74 |
| Mike Augliera R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 114 | 74 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 74 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 73 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 78 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.46 | 5.33 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |