Jacob Miller

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#391ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	23	23	115	3.85	3.39	19.3%	7.1%	—	K 15.1% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.17
2025	21	AAMIA	23	22	118	4.59	3.32	21.4%	10.9%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.85
2026	22	AAMIA	19	19	68	4.87	4.23	18.8%	11.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	1	1	1	5.01	5.01	15.9%	11.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBMIA	7	7	37	4.73	4.64	17.8%	10.3%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBMIA	9	9	51	4.56	4.47	18.9%	9.6%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsChris Kachmar (age 24) · Cade Kuehler (age 22) · Mike Ruff (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%15.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	26	6	2	1	100%	1.4	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	3.8%	4.76	4.24	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	6	26	6	2	1	100%	1.4	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	3.8%	4.76	4.34	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	64	263	55	27	3	94%	4.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.7%	4.36	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	64	263	55	27	3	94%	4.0	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	1.1%	4.36	3.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	15.1%	8.0%	7.1%	2.4%	3.85	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	15.1%	8.0%	7.1%	2.4%	3.85	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.1%	12.3%	1.9%	3.85	3.39	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	1.3%	4.59	3.85	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	1.3%	4.59	3.85	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	1.2%	4.59	3.32	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	19	68	308	58	34	7	100%	3.6	15.3%	12.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.87	4.85	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	19	68	308	58	34	7	100%	3.6	15.3%	12.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.87	4.85	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	19	68	308	58	34	7	100%	3.6	18.8%	11.0%	7.8%	2.3%	4.87	4.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.9%	11.4%	4.5%	2.6%	5.01	5.01	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	84	354	63	36	9	100%	5.6	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	2.6%	4.80	4.71	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	77	323	61	31	8	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	2.6%	4.63	4.54	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	75	316	62	30	8	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	2.6%	4.54	4.48	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	72	306	60	29	8	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.51	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	69	290	56	28	8	100%	6.3	19.4%	9.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.60	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	64	270	52	27	8	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.73	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	58	245	46	25	8	100%	5.8	18.8%	10.2%	8.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.91	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	220	41	23	7	100%	5.8	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.4%	4.99	5.11	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	37	156	28	16	4	100%	5.3	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	2.5%	4.73	4.64	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	51	215	41	21	5	100%	5.7	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	2.5%	4.56	4.47	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	60	253	49	24	6	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	2.5%	4.47	4.41	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	51	25	7	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	2.6%	4.45	4.44	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	61	258	50	25	7	100%	6.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.49	4.52	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	58	245	47	24	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.59	4.65	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	43	23	7	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.72	4.82	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	49	207	38	22	7	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.2%	4.90	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	431	1820	346	179	49	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	2.7%	4.60	4.23	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	83	23	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	2.7%	4.60	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		85	83	370	1592	254	171	32	98%	4.4	16.0%	10.7%	5.2%	2.0%	4.37	4.22	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	860	137	92	17	98%	4.4	16.0%	10.7%	5.2%	2.0%	4.37	4.22	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 68 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.85 (+0.69)K% 18.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.83%	—	×0.810	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.04%	—	×1.100	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 118 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.85 (+0.54)K% 21.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.40%	—	×0.810	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.100	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.27%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 81 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.43 (+0.88)K% 19.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.95%	—	×0.770	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.150	8.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.935	×1.250	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 34 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.52 (+0.51)K% 20.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.29%	—	×0.810	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.100	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.064	×1.200	1.63%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 59 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.29 (+0.95)K% 20.2% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.24%	—	×0.740	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.180	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.58	18.7%	8.9%	235	-0.43	—	—	—
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	91
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	90
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	89
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	88
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	87
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	85
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	84
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	84
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	68	18.6%	10.0%	1.08	4.71
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Matt Albers ('19)	3.8	63	17.4%	9.5%	1.03	4.35
Barry Jones ('86-'93, 1 WAR*)	2.2	62	17.4%*	10.4%*	0.96*	4.17*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*