Jacob Miller
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.8
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.5 · 2030
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%8.4%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 4 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 16 | 15 | 64 | 263 | 55 | 27 | 3 | 15.0% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 4.36 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 23 | 23 | 115 | 481 | 93 | 34 | 9 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 23 | 22 | 118 | 514 | 110 | 56 | 6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 4.59 | 3.87 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 94 | 52 | 11 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 125 | 529 | 99 | 55 | 12 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 121 | 57 | 14 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 162 | 683 | 144 | 62 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 4.22 | 4.14 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 176 | 742 | 159 | 65 | 18 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 176 | 742 | 161 | 64 | 18 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 174 | 736 | 160 | 64 | 18 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 4.07 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 159 | 64 | 18 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 154 | 63 | 18 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 165 | 696 | 148 | 62 | 18 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 159 | 671 | 141 | 61 | 18 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 153 | 644 | 134 | 59 | 17 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +1.6 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 146 | 615 | 126 | 58 | 17 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +1.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 118 | 56 | 17 | 20.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 130 | 551 | 109 | 54 | 16 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 66 | 309 | 1316 | 212 | 137 | 25 | 16.1% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 4.08 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 852 | 137 | 89 | 16 | 16.1% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | — | 4.15 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 480 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .334 | 3.73 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 153 | -0.56 | 3.20 | 313 | 92 |
| Miguel Almonte R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 1.8% | .300 | 4.42 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 143 | +0.57 | 3.05 | 247 | 92 |
| Tyler Woessner R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .307 | 5.37 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 76 | +1.28 | 4.09 | 197 | 92 |
| Ty Cummings R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .329 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 116 | +0.70 | 4.30 | 233 | 92 |
| Trent Baker R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 92 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 92 |
| Jamison Hill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 91 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 91 |
| Alex Royalty R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.33 | 151 | 91 |
| Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.69 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.28 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 263 | 91 |
| Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.14 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.15 | 4.99 | 213 | 91 |
| Brett Daniels R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 91 |
| Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 91 |
| Wil Crowe R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 90 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.78 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .275 | 4.29 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 122 | -0.49 | 4.06 | 218 | 90 |
| Peyton Olejnik R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.1% | 13.2% | 1.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 129 | 90 |
| Kevin Comer R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 15.4% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .309 | 3.72 | 21.8% | 12.8% | 164 | -0.23 | 3.49 | 271 | 90 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 90 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 90 |
| Max Gamboa R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .334 | 3.99 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.02 | 3.97 | 162 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.4 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.4 | $23M | +$19M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.2 | $22M | +$16M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.0 | $20M | +$12M |
| Totals | $20M | $131M | +$110M | ||