Jacob Miller — OGILVIE

Jacob Miller P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%15.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	26	6	2	1	100%	1.4	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	3.8%	4.76	4.24	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	6	26	6	2	1	100%	1.4	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	3.8%	4.76	4.34	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	64	263	55	27	3	94%	4.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.7%	4.36	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	64	263	55	27	3	94%	4.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.7%	4.36	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	64	263	55	27	3	94%	4.0	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	1.1%	4.36	3.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	15.1%	8.0%	7.1%	2.4%	3.85	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	15.1%	8.0%	7.1%	2.4%	3.85	4.17	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	115	481	93	34	9	100%	5.0	19.3%	7.1%	12.3%	1.9%	3.85	3.39	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	1.3%	4.59	3.85	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	17.3%	12.0%	5.4%	1.3%	4.59	3.85	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	118	514	110	56	6	96%	5.1	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	1.2%	4.59	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	18	18	66	297	56	33	7	100%	3.7	15.3%	12.2%	3.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	18	18	66	297	56	33	7	100%	3.7	15.3%	12.2%	3.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	MIA	18	18	66	297	56	33	7	100%	3.7	18.9%	11.1%	7.7%	2.4%	4.91	4.21	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	7	29	5	3	1	100%	6.9	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	2.3%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	73	326	61	36	8	—	—	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	2.4%	4.91	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	110	464	81	50	11	100%	5.2	17.4%	10.8%	6.6%	2.3%	4.74	4.66	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	113	475	87	49	11	100%	5.6	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	2.4%	4.60	4.52	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	114	481	91	48	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.4%	4.51	4.45	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	114	481	92	48	11	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.4%	4.46	4.42	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	112	474	91	47	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	2.4%	4.46	4.46	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	109	460	87	47	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.5%	4.51	4.54	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	104	439	83	45	12	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.3%	8.4%	2.7%	4.61	4.68	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	413	76	44	12	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.7%	7.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.85	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	91	385	69	42	12	100%	6.1	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	3.1%	4.94	5.06	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	55	232	40	25	5	100%	5.5	17.4%	10.8%	6.6%	2.2%	4.68	4.60	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	79	334	61	34	7	100%	5.6	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	2.2%	4.54	4.46	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	93	393	74	39	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.2%	4.45	4.39	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	100	422	81	42	10	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.3%	4.39	4.35	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	83	43	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	2.3%	4.39	4.39	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	100	422	80	43	10	100%	5.9	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.4%	4.44	4.47	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	97	410	77	42	10	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.3%	8.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	92	388	72	41	11	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.7%	7.8%	2.7%	4.68	4.77	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	87	367	66	40	11	100%	6.2	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	136	804	3394	633	350	83	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	2.4%	4.54	4.17	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	157	87	21	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	2.4%	4.54	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		84	82	368	1581	253	170	32	98%	4.4	16.0%	10.8%	5.2%	2.0%	4.38	4.23	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	859	137	92	17	98%	4.4	16.0%	10.8%	5.2%	2.0%	4.38	4.23	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	15.7%	11.8%	2.3%	—	4.54	18.2%	7.9%	336	-0.37	—	—	—
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	90
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	89
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	88
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	88
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	88
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	88
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	87
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	86
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	572	86
Jordan Foley R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.00	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.16	3.21	305	85
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	85
Cody Sedlock R 2017 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	12.6%	9.6%	2.6%	.353	4.45	18.2%	4.9%	115	-0.24	4.21	378	85
Travis Lakins R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	3.0%	.349	3.82	18.4%	7.5%	191	-0.97	3.18	374	85
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	85
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	105	18.4%	10.4%	0.98	4.64
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98