Jacob Miller
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
K%15.7%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%3.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.34 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 64 | 263 | 55 | 27 | 3 | 94% | 4.0 | 15.0% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 4.36 | 4.37 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 64 | 263 | 55 | 27 | 3 | 94% | 4.0 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 4.36 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 115 | 481 | 93 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 115 | 481 | 93 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 3.85 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 23 | 22 | 118 | 514 | 110 | 56 | 6 | 96% | 5.1 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 4.59 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 23 | 22 | 118 | 514 | 110 | 56 | 6 | 96% | 5.1 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 4.59 | 3.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 13 | 13 | 52 | 228 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 16.3% | 11.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.18 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 43 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 116 | 502 | 89 | 56 | 13 | — | — | 17.8% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.7% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 63 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 4.74 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 68 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.60 | 4.52 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 71 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 4.45 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 87 | 369 | 71 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 4.71 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 63 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 64 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 58 | 335 | 1413 | 264 | 144 | 32 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 86 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 77 | 354 | 1512 | 244 | 159 | 32 | 97% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 855 | 138 | 90 | 18 | 97% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.3% | — | 4.54 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 262 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Alex Royalty R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .302 | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 151 | 90 |
| Brooks Caple R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.26 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.5% | .305 | 3.37 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 67 | -0.89 | 3.37 | 166 | 89 |
| Mike Ruff R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.86 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 1.4% | .301 | 5.54 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 185 | +1.68 | 3.86 | 260 | 89 |
| Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.65 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .299 | 5.34 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 113 | +0.69 | 4.65 | 194 | 88 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 88 |
| Cameron Wagoner R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.24 | 29.8% | 23.6% | 27 | -0.83 | 3.24 | 127 | 88 |
| Archie Bradley R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .315 | 3.18 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 327 | -1.18 | 2.25 | 570 | 88 |
| Alexander Meckley R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 1.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 14.5% | -3.5% | 69 | +0.76 | 4.07 | 172 | 88 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 87 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 87 |
| Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 13.3% | 1.3% | .270 | 4.79 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 88 | +0.77 | 4.02 | 191 | 87 |
| Jack Noble R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 6.15 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 58 | +1.70 | 4.45 | 125 | 87 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.49 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | .293 | 5.36 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 88 | -0.13 | 5.03 | 185 | 87 |
| Jordan Foley R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.91 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .294 | 4.08 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 162 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 305 | 87 |
| Troy Miller R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.35 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 45 | +0.39 | 4.96 | 168 | 86 |
| Blaine Knight R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .263 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.12 | 4.16 | 269 | 86 |
| Dane Myers R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | .284 | 5.39 | 12.2% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.34 | 125 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 86 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 12.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.34 | 18.2% | 4.9% | 115 | -0.12 | 4.16 | 378 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 87 | 18.1% | 10.5% | 0.91 | 4.60 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Spencer Turnbull ('24) | 5 | 68 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 0.77 | 4.18 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |