Blake Wolters

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	AKC	14	14	56	4.20	3.73	18.6%	10.1%	—	K 13.8% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.58
2025	20	AKC	12	12	47	3.99	4.77	19.3%	19.3%	—	K 14.3% · BB 22.8% · FIP 5.73
2026	21	MIX2 levels	25	24	103	7.08	5.23	23.6%	12.0%	—	K 18.0% · BB 13.9% · FIP 6.35
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	1	1	1	5.95	5.95	17.8%	15.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBKC	11	11	61	5.61	5.49	19.4%	13.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBKC	15	15	86	5.33	5.20	20.4%	12.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsGarrett Cave (age 22) · Max Bain (age 23) · Michael YaSenka (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%17.8%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	13.8%	11.9%	1.8%	2.1%	4.20	4.58	—
2024	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	13.8%	11.9%	1.8%	2.1%	4.20	4.58	—
2024	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	1.6%	4.20	3.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	14.3%	22.8%	-8.5%	1.7%	3.99	5.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	14.3%	22.8%	-8.5%	1.7%	3.99	5.73	—
2025	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	19.3%	19.3%	0.0%	1.4%	3.99	4.77	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	103	483	114	58	21	96%	4.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	5.5%	7.08	6.35	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	103	483	114	58	21	96%	4.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	5.5%	7.08	6.35	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	103	483	114	58	21	96%	4.1	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	4.3%	7.08	5.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	17.8%	15.8%	2.0%	3.6%	5.95	5.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	123	519	101	71	18	100%	5.3	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.5%	5.61	5.49	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	123	519	106	64	18	100%	5.6	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.33	5.20	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	86	361	76	42	12	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.5%	9.4%	3.4%	5.13	5.03	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	85	358	76	41	12	100%	6.1	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.99	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	83	349	74	40	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.4%	5.03	5.03	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	332	70	39	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.6%	9.4%	3.5%	5.08	5.11	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	309	64	37	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	3.7%	5.18	5.24	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	282	58	34	11	100%	6.1	20.5%	12.1%	8.3%	3.9%	5.32	5.42	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	61	258	50	35	9	100%	5.5	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.5%	5.61	5.49	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	86	363	74	45	12	100%	5.7	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.33	5.20	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	70	296	62	34	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	11.5%	9.4%	3.4%	5.13	5.03	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	74	312	66	36	11	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	3.4%	5.04	4.99	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	75	317	67	36	11	100%	6.2	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.4%	5.03	5.03	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	64	35	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.6%	9.4%	3.5%	5.08	5.11	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	68	287	60	34	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	3.7%	5.18	5.24	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	63	266	54	32	10	100%	6.3	20.5%	12.1%	8.3%	3.9%	5.32	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	568	2400	497	287	84	100%	5.9	20.7%	12.0%	8.7%	3.5%	5.21	4.80	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	101	30	100%	5.8	20.7%	12.0%	8.7%	3.5%	5.21	4.80	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		51	50	206	937	150	144	35	98%	4.0	16.1%	15.3%	0.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.75	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	49	200	910	146	140	34	98%	4.0	16.1%	15.3%	0.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.75	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 76 IPFIP 5.34 → 6.64 (+1.30)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.770	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.30%	—	×1.150	14.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.64%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 27 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.44 (+1.44)K% 28.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.740	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 47 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.73 (+1.02)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.740	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.32%	—	×1.180	22.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.74%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 56 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.58 (+0.88)K% 18.6% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.62%	—	×0.740	13.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.180	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Wolters (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.26	20.2%	7.5%	332	-0.69	—	—	—
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	90
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	86
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.70	20.0%	10.3%	184	-1.17	3.53	358	86
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	85
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	85
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	84
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	84
Matthew Thompson R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	22	SP	5.26	19.4%	16.5%	3.1%	.286	5.29	17.7%	0.8%	105	+0.03	5.03	411	83
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	82
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	20.2%	12.6%	1.36	5.35
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Mike Corkins ('69-'74, -3 WAR*)	2.3	115	21.7%*	11.5%*	1.22*	5.27*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83