Blake Wolters — OGILVIE

Blake Wolters P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%15.8%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-2.9%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	13.8%	11.9%	1.8%	2.1%	4.20	4.58	—
2024	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	13.8%	11.9%	1.8%	2.1%	4.20	4.58	—
2024	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	14	14	56	247	46	25	4	100%	4.0	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	1.6%	4.20	3.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	14.3%	22.8%	-8.5%	1.7%	3.99	5.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	14.3%	22.8%	-8.5%	1.7%	3.99	5.73	—
2025	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	12	12	47	207	40	40	3	100%	3.9	19.3%	19.3%	0.0%	1.4%	3.99	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	24	103	483	114	58	21	96%	4.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	5.5%	7.08	6.35	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	24	103	483	114	58	21	96%	4.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	5.5%	7.08	6.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	KC	6	6	27	117	33	13	4	100%	4.5	28.2%	11.1%	17.1%	3.4%	1.65	4.00	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	KC	19	18	76	366	81	45	17	95%	4.0	22.1%	12.3%	9.8%	4.6%	9.04	5.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	106	447	81	70	12	100%	5.0	18.1%	15.7%	2.4%	2.8%	5.63	5.46	-0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	110	464	91	64	13	100%	5.2	19.6%	13.8%	5.8%	2.7%	5.27	5.08	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	113	475	97	60	13	100%	5.6	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.7%	5.00	4.84	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	481	101	57	13	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	2.7%	4.81	4.70	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	481	102	57	13	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.73	4.67	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	474	100	56	13	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.71	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	109	460	97	55	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.80	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	104	439	91	54	13	100%	6.1	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.86	4.93	-0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	413	84	52	13	100%	6.1	20.5%	12.5%	8.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	52	220	40	34	6	100%	5.2	18.1%	15.7%	2.4%	2.6%	5.52	5.35	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	80	338	66	47	9	100%	5.3	19.6%	13.8%	5.8%	2.5%	5.16	4.97	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	93	393	80	49	10	100%	5.5	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.5%	4.89	4.73	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	101	426	90	50	11	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	2.5%	4.70	4.59	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	104	439	93	52	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.5%	4.62	4.56	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	104	439	93	52	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.6%	4.61	4.60	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	102	431	91	52	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.68	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	87	51	12	100%	6.2	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.81	-0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	93	393	80	49	12	100%	5.8	20.5%	12.5%	8.0%	3.0%	4.88	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	829	3498	720	436	92	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.6%	4.81	4.39	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	105	22	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.6%	4.81	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		51	50	206	937	150	144	35	98%	4.0	16.1%	15.3%	0.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.75	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	49	200	910	146	140	34	98%	4.0	16.1%	15.3%	0.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.75	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Wolters (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	15.8%	18.6%	2.8%	—	5.12	19.4%	5.4%	328	-0.94	—	—	—
Ofreidy Gómez R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP	5.17	12.8%	14.5%	2.4%	.266	4.86	14.4%	4.0%	401	-0.31	3.58	663	82
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	82
Yoscar Pimentel R 2023 · 5.94 FIP	21	SP	5.94	14.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	136	82
Carlos Guzman R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	21	SP	5.58	14.6%	15.5%	3.2%	.225	4.86	16.4%	5.8%	205	-0.72	2.61	469	82
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	80
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	80
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	80
Tom Robson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP	4.89	12.6%	13.4%	2.1%	.337	4.89	12.5%	-1.3%	105	-0.00	3.23	132	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	80
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	80
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	80
Joander Suarez R 2021 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.3%	16.0%	3.4%	.342	3.87	21.2%	11.7%	238	-1.72	2.74	432	79
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	79
Ryne Inman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	21	SP	5.35	14.6%	17.2%	2.4%	.342	4.62	18.9%	7.8%	239	-0.73	2.86	383	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	78
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	102	20.3%	12.9%	1.10	5.01
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77