Mason Thompson — OGILVIE

Mason Thompson P Round Rock Express

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 241 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.87

FIP4.72

K%20.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

SI (41%)

CU (5%)

CH (3%)

SL-1.2 (33%)

FB-2.7 (59%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	5	5	12	50	12	5	0	100%	2.4	16.3%	12.5%	3.8%	0.0%	2.25	3.31	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	5	5	12	50	12	5	0	100%	2.4	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	0.0%	2.25	2.35	—
2017	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	7	7	27	115	28	12	2	100%	3.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	2.2%	4.67	4.32	—
2017	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	7	7	27	115	28	12	2	100%	3.9	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.7%	4.67	3.32	—
2018	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	20	93	425	97	37	8	91%	4.2	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.1%	4.94	4.12	—
2018	20	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	20	93	425	97	37	8	91%	4.2	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	1.9%	4.94	3.33	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	27	132	25	22	4	80%	2.7	15.5%	20.0%	-4.5%	3.8%	7.24	6.43	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	27	132	25	22	4	80%	2.7	18.9%	16.7%	2.3%	3.0%	7.24	5.59	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	51	231	47	22	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.4%	4.91	4.57	-0.0
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	51	231	47	22	8	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.91	4.58	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	43	180	41	13	2	11%	1.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	1.2%	3.16	3.15	+0.7
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	4	43	180	41	13	2	11%	1.1	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	1.1%	3.16	2.70	+0.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	243	45	22	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	1.7%	5.40	3.63	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	243	45	22	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	1.7%	5.40	3.63	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	55	243	45	22	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.5%	1.6%	5.40	3.61	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	1.7%	8.67	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	1.7%	8.67	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	1.4%	8.67	4.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	0	114	522	93	55	11	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.5%	7.3%	2.1%	5.21	4.17	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	18.8%	8.1%	10.6%	1.9%	5.67	3.57	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	18.8%	8.1%	10.6%	1.9%	5.67	3.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	TEX	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	1.7%	5.67	3.27	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.87	4.72	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	45	198	44	19	4	—	—	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	1.8%	5.58	3.70	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	57	242	49	30	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	54	228	45	29	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.01	5.09	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	20	0	21	89	18	11	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	29	0	30	127	25	16	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.01	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	165	739	136	82	17	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.3%	2.3%	5.13	4.24	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	894	165	99	21	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.3%	2.3%	5.13	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		256	48	375	1691	302	187	36	19%	1.5	17.9%	11.0%	6.8%	2.1%	5.21	4.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	26	200	902	161	100	19	19%	1.5	17.9%	11.0%	6.8%	2.1%	5.21	4.16	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	20.9%	12.2%	2.7%	—	4.98	20.0%	7.4%	111	+0.26	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	78
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	76
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	76
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	76
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	75
Matt Carasiti R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	18.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.276	4.88	22.4%	10.9%	22	+0.87	2.80	312	75
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	75
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	74
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	74
Gonzalez Germen R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SU	3.88	19.2%	10.9%	1.8%	.292	3.70	15.5%	6.9%	16	-0.18	3.70	146	74
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	20.3%	12.5%	1.09	4.92
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82