Mason Thompson

P Round Rock Express

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 241 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	52	0	55	5.40	3.61	18.5%	9.1%	0.6	K 18.3% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.63
2025	27	MIX4 levels	29	1	27	8.67	4.06	21.7%	14.5%	0.2	K 18.3% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.58
2026	28	AAATEX	39	3	40	5.67	3.28	22.6%	9.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.51
2027PROJ	29	MLBTEX	6	0	6	4.64	4.67	19.5%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBTEX	14	0	15	4.78	4.88	18.8%	11.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBTEX	17	0	18	4.98	5.11	18.1%	11.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo54

K%23

xwOBA vs10

CompsDustin Molleken (age 30) · Gregory Infante (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.64

FIP4.67

K%19.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	5	5	12	50	12	5	0	100%	2.4	16.3%	12.5%	3.8%	0.0%	2.25	3.31	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	5	5	12	50	12	5	0	100%	2.4	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	0.0%	2.25	2.35	—
2017	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	7	7	27	115	28	12	2	100%	3.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	2.2%	4.67	4.32	—
2017	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	7	7	27	115	28	12	2	100%	3.9	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.7%	4.67	3.32	—
2018	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	20	93	425	97	37	8	91%	4.2	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.1%	4.94	4.12	—
2018	20	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	20	93	425	97	37	8	91%	4.2	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	1.9%	4.94	3.33	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	27	132	25	22	4	80%	2.7	15.5%	20.0%	-4.5%	3.8%	7.24	6.43	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	27	132	25	22	4	80%	2.7	18.9%	16.7%	2.3%	3.0%	7.24	5.59	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	51	231	47	22	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.4%	4.91	4.57	-0.0
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	51	231	47	22	8	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.91	4.58	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	43	180	41	13	2	11%	1.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	1.2%	3.16	3.15	+0.7
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	4	43	180	41	13	2	11%	1.1	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	1.1%	3.16	2.70	+0.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	243	45	22	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	1.7%	5.40	3.63	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	55	243	45	22	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.5%	1.6%	5.40	3.61	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	1.7%	8.67	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	18.3%	16.7%	1.7%	1.7%	8.67	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	29	1	27	138	30	20	2	3%	0.9	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	1.4%	8.67	4.06	+0.2
2026	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	19.4%	8.1%	11.3%	1.9%	5.67	3.51	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	19.4%	8.1%	11.3%	1.9%	5.67	3.51	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	39	3	40	177	40	16	3	8%	1.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	1.7%	5.67	3.28	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	0	114	522	93	55	11	0%	1.0	17.8%	10.5%	7.3%	2.1%	5.21	4.17	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	39	0	41	174	33	20	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.88	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	TEX	32	0	33	140	25	16	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.11	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	14	0	15	63	12	7	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.3%	7.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.88	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	14	9	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	0	147	663	119	71	15	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.7%	7.2%	2.3%	5.14	4.20	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	900	161	96	20	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.7%	7.2%	2.3%	5.14	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		256	48	375	1691	304	187	36	19%	1.5	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.1%	5.21	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	26	200	902	162	100	19	19%	1.5	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.1%	5.21	4.15	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 40 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.51 (+0.25)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.60%	—	×0.860	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.04%	—	×0.900	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 10 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.38 (+0.27)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.960	×1.100	2.49%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 6 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.39 (+0.60)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.100	16.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.963	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 15 IPFIP 1.46 → 1.79 (+0.33)K% 28.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.36%	—	×0.880	24.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×1.050	6.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.084	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 27 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.35 (+0.17)K% 21.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.82%	—	×0.880	19.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.050	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.154	×1.100	3.47%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 22 IPFIP 5.11 → 6.43 (+1.31)K% 20.2% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.18%	—	×0.770	15.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.43%	—	×1.150	20.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.900	×1.250	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 5.11 → 6.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 5 IPFIP 6.04 → 7.76 (+1.72)K% 13.0% → 8.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.680	8.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.250	16.30%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.04 → 7.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 93 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.12 (+0.81)K% 22.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.82%	—	×0.740	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.71%	—	×1.180	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.176	×1.300	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.5%	11.0%	2.6%	—	4.98	18.5%	7.0%	74	+0.31	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	87
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	78
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	78
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	77
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	662	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	41	18.4%	11.2%	0.96	4.97
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*