Luis Arana
SS Jupiter Hammerheads| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROKDSL Miami | 227 | .297/.422/.476 | 5 | 28 | 67 | — | .197/.311/.280 |
| 2026 | 18 | A/ROKMIA | 347 | .278/.379/.349 | 2 | 44 | 77 | — | .254/.332/.319 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 19 | MLBMIA | 8 | .212/.287/.297 | 0 | 0 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ36% MLB | 20 | MLBMIA | 110 | .218/.294/.315 | 2 | 3 | 80 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 21 | MLBMIA | 200 | .222/.299/.328 | 3 | 5 | 85 | 0.3 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 185 | 55 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 297 | 422 | 476 | 898 | 178 | 305 | 8 | 13 | 399 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 282 | 241 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 54 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 253 | 355 | 328 | 683 | 75 | 317 | 19 | 12 | 315 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 65 | 54 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 389 | 484 | 444 | 929 | 56 | 429 | 9 | 14 | 417 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 197 | 311 | 280 | 591 | 83 | 207 | 9 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 282 | 250 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 73 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 236 | 315 | 304 | 619 | 68 | 314 | 26 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 65 | 57 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 333 | 406 | 386 | 792 | 53 | 355 | 14 | 9 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 197 | 311 | 280 | 591 | 83 | 209 | 9 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 185 | 55 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 297 | 422 | 476 | 898 | 178 | 305 | 8 | 13 | 399 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 308 | 77 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 82 | 5 | 44 | 13 | 250 | 327 | 312 | 638 | 62 | 332 | 24 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 295 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 60 | 5 | 44 | 13 | 278 | 379 | 349 | 728 | 71 | 340 | 17 | 12 | 334 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 197 | 311 | 280 | 591 | 83 | 207 | 9 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 309 | 77 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 82 | 5 | 44 | 13 | 249 | 327 | 311 | 637 | 61 | 322 | 24 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Miami | — | 227 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 197 | 311 | 280 | 591 | 83 | 207 | 9 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 309 | 77 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 82 | 5 | 44 | 13 | 249 | 327 | 311 | 637 | 61 | 322 | 24 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB MLE | MIA | 4% | 457 | 411 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 117 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 219 | 293 | 310 | 603 | 90 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB CTX | MIA | 4% | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 287 | 297 | 583 | 84 | 282 | 25 | 12 | 267 | 72 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 20 | MLB MLE | MIA | 36% | 306 | 273 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 77 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 301 | 329 | 629 | 103 | 293 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIA | 49% | 408 | 365 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 230 | 306 | 343 | 649 | 113 | 294 | 25 | 9 | 293 | 85 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIA | 55% | 455 | 407 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 110 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 233 | 309 | 353 | 662 | 120 | 294 | 24 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIA | 57% | 505 | 449 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 120 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 235 | 312 | 360 | 671 | 125 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 302 | 91 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 57% | 562 | 501 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 133 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 314 | 365 | 678 | 128 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 57% | 583 | 519 | 124 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 51 | 138 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 314 | 366 | 680 | 129 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 57% | 596 | 531 | 126 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 141 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 314 | 365 | 679 | 129 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 55% | 594 | 529 | 125 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 141 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 313 | 363 | 676 | 127 | 295 | 24 | 9 | 304 | 92 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 55% | 583 | 520 | 122 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 140 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 234 | 311 | 358 | 669 | 124 | 294 | 24 | 9 | 302 | 90 | -7 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 53% | 566 | 505 | 118 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 137 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 232 | 308 | 352 | 661 | 121 | 293 | 24 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +6 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 57% | 552 | 494 | 113 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 136 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 229 | 305 | 345 | 650 | 116 | 292 | 25 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIA | 60% | 534 | 478 | 108 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 133 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 225 | 300 | 336 | 636 | 110 | 289 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2040 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIA | 61% | 511 | 457 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 130 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 220 | 295 | 324 | 618 | 103 | 286 | 25 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -14 | -2 | -2 | +5 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB CTX | MIA | 36% | 110 | 99 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 294 | 315 | 609 | 96 | 283 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB CTX | MIA | 49% | 200 | 178 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 49 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 299 | 328 | 627 | 106 | 284 | 24 | 8 | 285 | 85 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIA | 55% | 248 | 222 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 303 | 338 | 640 | 112 | 285 | 24 | 8 | 290 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIA | 57% | 286 | 255 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 68 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 305 | 344 | 649 | 117 | 285 | 24 | 9 | 294 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 57% | 318 | 283 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 75 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 307 | 349 | 656 | 120 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 296 | 93 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 57% | 330 | 294 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 78 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 307 | 350 | 657 | 121 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 297 | 93 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 57% | 337 | 301 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 80 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 307 | 350 | 656 | 120 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 297 | 93 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 55% | 329 | 293 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 78 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 306 | 347 | 653 | 119 | 285 | 24 | 9 | 295 | 92 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 55% | 320 | 285 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 77 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 304 | 343 | 647 | 116 | 285 | 24 | 9 | 293 | 90 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 53% | 303 | 270 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 73 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 302 | 337 | 639 | 113 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 290 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 57% | 315 | 281 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 77 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 298 | 330 | 629 | 108 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 285 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIA | 60% | 318 | 284 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 218 | 294 | 321 | 615 | 103 | 280 | 25 | 8 | 280 | 81 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2040 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIA | 61% | 313 | 281 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 213 | 288 | 310 | 599 | 97 | 277 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 76 | -9 | -1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3727 | 3326 | 750 | 131 | 16 | 72 | 321 | 902 | 46 | 71 | 27 | 225 | 302 | 339 | 642 | 114 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 289 | 86 | -54 | +3 | -1 | +40 | +81 | 7.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 132 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 157 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 228 | 304 | 345 | 649 | 117 | 287 | 24 | 9 | 289 | 86 | -9 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7539 | 6718 | 1557 | 284 | 37 | 140 | 652 | 1793 | 102 | 205 | 72 | 232 | 309 | 348 | 657 | 116 | 294 | 24 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -105 | +7 | -2 | +75 | +151 | 12.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 133 | 24 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 155 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 230 | 307 | 344 | 651 | 114 | 291 | 24 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -10 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 282 PAwOBA .308 → .271 (−37)K% 19.1% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 25.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .308 → .271; ISO .075 → .064; BABIP .317 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Marlins · 65 PAwOBA .414 → .331 (−82)K% 9.2% → 13.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 39.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 33.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .414 → .331; ISO .056 → .043; BABIP .429 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Miami · 227 PAwOBA .393 → .267 (−126)K% 7.9% → 9.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.93% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 9.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.41% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.56% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 15.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.026 | ×0.600 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.088 | ×0.600 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.423 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.01% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 118, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .393 → .267; ISO .178 → .090; BABIP .305 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).