Luis Arana

SS Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 19 S/R 5'10" / 154 lbs A HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP40OGV rank#390ETA2029MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202517ROKDSL Miami227.297/.422/.47652867—.197/.311/.280
202618A/ROKMIA347.278/.379/.34924477—.254/.332/.319
2027PROJMLE19MLBMIA8.212/.287/.2970072-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB20MLBMIA110.218/.294/.31523800.1
2029PROJ49% MLB21MLBMIA200.222/.299/.32835850.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$4M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed78
Z-Con%73
K%71
Whiff%71
Max EV65
BB%45
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 76%
CompsAngel Genao (age 19) · Dalton Pompey (age 19) · Juan Brito (age 19)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†72
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .287 / .297
PA8
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP282
ISO85
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.81.60.00.10.30.50.70.90.91.00.90.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.9$2M+$2M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.9$2M+$2M
2034Arb-1$4M+1.0$5M+$3M
2035Arb-2$7M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-3$9M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $7M $15M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202517 ROKDSL Miami — 227185 551045 301810 289 297422476898 178305 813 399 67 — — — — — —
202618 AJupiter Hammerheads — 282241 611202 34544 3010 253355328683 75317 1912 315 70 — — — — — —
202618 ROKFCL Marlins — 6554 21110 961 143 389484444929 56429 914 417 110 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Miami — 227193 38622 222110 289 197311280591 83207 910 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 282250 591102 25734 3010 236315304619 68314 269 271 70 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 6557 19110 691 143 333406386792 53355 149 331 110 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Miami — 227193 38622 222110 289 197311280591 83209 910 267 67 — — — — — —
202517 ROK RAWDSL Miami — 227185 551045 301810 289 297422476898 178305 813 399 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 347308 771112 30825 4413 250327312638 62332 249 282 77 — — — — — —
202618 A RAW2 teams — 347295 821312 43605 4413 278379349728 71340 1712 334 77 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Miami — 227193 38622 222110 289 197311280591 83207 910 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 347309 771112 30825 4413 249327311637 61322 249 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Miami — 227193 38622 222110 289 197311280591 83207 910 267 67 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 347309 771112 30825 4413 249327311637 61322 249 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202719 MLB MLEMIA 4% 457411 901725 381175 123 219293310603 90291 268 275 72 -15 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202719 MLB CTXMIA 4% 87 1000 120 00 212287297583 84282 2512 267 72 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202820 MLB MLEMIA 36% 306273 621125 26774 82 225301329629 103293 258 286 80 -7 +1 -1 +3 +7 0.3
202921 MLB MLEMIA 49% 408365 841627 351005 103 230306343649 113294 259 293 85 -7 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.6
203022 MLB MLEMIA 55% 455407 941729 391106 113 233309353662 120294 249 299 88 -6 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.9
203123 MLB MLEMIA 57% 505449 10620310 441207 113 235312360671 125295 249 302 91 -6 +1 -0 +5 +11 1.2
203224 MLB MLEMIA 57% 562501 11922312 491337 124 237314365678 128295 249 305 93 -5 +1 +1 +6 +12 1.5
203325 MLB MLEMIA 57% 583519 12423313 511388 124 237314366680 129295 249 306 93 -5 +1 +1 +6 +13 1.7
203426 MLB MLEMIA 57% 596531 12623313 521418 124 237314365679 129295 249 306 93 -5 +1 +1 +6 +13 1.7
203527 MLB MLEMIA 55% 594529 12523313 521418 124 236313363676 127295 249 304 92 -6 +1 +1 +6 +13 1.6
203628 MLB MLEMIA 55% 583520 12223312 511407 103 234311358669 124294 249 302 90 -7 +1 +1 +6 +13 1.4
203729 MLB MLEMIA 53% 566505 11822311 491377 93 232308352661 121293 249 298 88 -8 +1 -0 +6 +12 1.1
203830 MLB MLEMIA 57% 552494 11321211 471366 84 229305345650 116292 259 294 85 -10 +0 -1 +6 +12 0.7
203931 MLB MLEMIA 60% 534478 10820210 451336 74 225300336636 110289 258 288 81 -12 -0 -2 +6 +12 0.4
204032 MLB MLEMIA 61% 511457 1001828 431306 57 220295324618 103286 258 281 76 -14 -2 -2 +5 +11 -0.2
202820 MLB CTXMIA 36% 11099 23412 9281 31 218294315609 96283 258 278 80 -3 +0 -0 +1 +2 0.1
202921 MLB CTXMIA 49% 200178 39713 17493 51 222299328627 106284 248 285 85 -4 +1 -0 +2 +4 0.3
203022 MLB CTXMIA 55% 248222 50915 21603 62 225303338640 112285 248 290 88 -3 +0 -0 +3 +5 0.5
203123 MLB CTXMIA 57% 286255 581016 25684 62 227305344649 117285 249 294 91 -3 +0 -0 +3 +6 0.7
203224 MLB CTXMIA 57% 318283 651117 28754 72 229307349656 120286 249 296 93 -3 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.9
203325 MLB CTXMIA 57% 330294 681227 29784 72 229307350657 121286 249 297 93 -3 +1 +1 +4 +7 0.9
203426 MLB CTXMIA 57% 337301 691227 29804 72 229307350656 120286 249 297 93 -3 +1 +1 +4 +7 1.0
203527 MLB CTXMIA 55% 329293 681227 29784 72 228306347653 119285 249 295 92 -3 +1 +1 +4 +7 0.9
203628 MLB CTXMIA 55% 320285 641116 28774 62 227304343647 116285 249 293 90 -4 +0 +0 +3 +7 0.8
203729 MLB CTXMIA 53% 303270 611116 26734 52 224302337639 113284 249 290 88 -4 +0 -0 +3 +7 0.6
203830 MLB CTXMIA 57% 315281 631116 27774 52 222298330629 108282 249 285 85 -6 +0 -0 +3 +7 0.4
203931 MLB CTXMIA 60% 318284 621115 27794 43 218294321615 103280 258 280 81 -7 -0 -1 +3 +7 0.2
204032 MLB CTXMIA 61% 313281 601015 26803 34 213288310599 97277 268 273 76 -9 -1 -1 +3 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 37273326 7501311672 32190246 7127 225302339642 114286 249 289 86 -54 +3 -1 +40 +81 7.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 13223313 561578 125 228304345649 117287 249 289 86 -9 +1 -0 +7 +14 1.2
Career— MLE — 75396718 155728437140 6521793102 20572 232309348657 116294 249 296 86 -105 +7 -2 +75 +151 12.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 13324312 561559 186 230307344651 114291 249 296 86 -10 +1 -0 +7 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 282 PAwOBA .308 → .271 (−37)K% 19.1% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷1.000×1.360——26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.06%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0508.74%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.780—×1.0501.16%
Singles /BIP25.13%÷1.000×0.920×1.049×1.05025.46%
Doubles /BIP6.42%÷1.000×0.830×1.049×1.0505.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.049×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.07%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0500.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .308 → .271; ISO .075 → .064; BABIP .317 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Marlins · 65 PAwOBA .414 → .331 (−82)K% 9.2% → 13.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.23%÷1.000×1.440——13.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.85%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0228.78%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.720—×1.0221.13%
Singles /BIP39.58%÷1.000×0.820—×1.02233.19%
Doubles /BIP2.08%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0221.53%
Triples /BIP2.08%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0221.53%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .414 → .331; ISO .056 → .043; BABIP .429 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Miami · 227 PAwOBA .393 → .267 (−126)K% 7.9% → 9.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.93%÷1.040×1.220——9.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.22%÷0.978×0.700—×1.0229.67%
HBP% /PA4.41%—×0.700—×1.0223.15%
Singles /BIP21.56%÷0.978×0.680×1.021×1.02215.65%
Doubles /BIP5.99%÷1.026×0.600×1.021×1.0223.66%
Triples /BIP2.40%÷1.088×0.600×1.021×1.0221.38%
Home runs /BIP2.99%÷1.423×0.470—×1.0221.01%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 118, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .393 → .267; ISO .178 → .090; BABIP .305 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).