Luis Arana — OGILVIE

Luis AranaSS Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 18 S/R 5'10" / 154 lbs A HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION347 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP299

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$92M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$10M	+$10M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$9M
2034	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$9M	+$6M
2035	Arb-2	$11M	+2.0	$8M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$16M	+1.9	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$37M		$54M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	227	185	55	10	4	5	30	18	10	28	9	297	422	476	898	178	305	8	13	399	156	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	227	196	46	8	3	3	19	25	10	28	9	235	333	352	685	117	245	11	8	296	86	-4	+2	—	—	+5	0.3
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	227	196	46	8	3	3	19	25	10	28	9	235	333	352	685	117	253	11	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	227	185	55	10	4	5	30	18	10	28	9	297	422	476	898	178	305	8	13	399	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	227	196	46	8	3	3	19	25	10	28	9	235	333	352	685	117	245	11	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	227	196	46	8	3	3	19	25	10	28	9	235	333	352	685	117	245	11	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A MLE	MIA	—	347	307	74	12	1	2	31	85	5	44	13	241	321	306	627	65	324	24	9	279	75	-10	+4	+0	+4	+8	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	MIA	—	65	54	21	1	1	0	9	6	1	14	3	389	484	444	929	56	429	9	14	417	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A RAW	MIA	—	282	241	61	12	0	2	34	54	4	30	10	253	355	328	683	75	317	19	12	315	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	A MLE	MIA	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		307	22	11	289	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	A MLE	MIA	—	356	315	75	12	1	2	32	87	5	45	13	238	318	302	620	63	320	24	9	279	75	-11	+4	+0	+4	+8	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	43%	378	336	82	15	2	6	33	91	6	14	4	244	323	354	677	110	309	24	9	300	89	-5	+1	+1	+4	+8	0.9
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	61%	473	420	102	18	2	8	42	111	8	15	4	243	323	352	676	110	310	23	9	309	95	-3	+1	+1	+5	+10	1.5
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	68%	529	467	116	21	2	11	48	121	9	15	4	248	330	373	703	124	310	23	9	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+6	+11	1.9
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	571	505	126	23	2	12	52	129	9	15	5	250	330	374	705	125	310	23	9	319	102	+2	+1	+1	+6	+12	2.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	72%	617	545	138	25	3	14	57	138	10	16	5	253	335	387	722	134	311	22	9	322	104	+3	+1	+1	+7	+13	2.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	72%	633	559	141	25	3	14	58	140	11	16	5	252	334	383	717	131	311	22	9	324	106	+4	+1	+1	+7	+14	2.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	638	563	144	26	3	15	59	141	11	15	5	256	338	393	731	137	311	22	9	326	107	+5	+1	+1	+7	+14	2.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	642	566	145	26	3	15	60	142	11	15	5	256	339	392	731	136	311	22	9	326	107	+5	+1	+1	+7	+14	2.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	70%	639	563	144	26	3	15	60	141	11	15	4	256	339	393	732	137	311	22	9	326	107	+5	+1	+1	+7	+14	2.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	69%	632	556	142	25	3	15	60	141	11	14	4	255	340	392	732	137	311	22	9	325	106	+5	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	67%	621	547	137	24	2	14	59	140	10	14	4	250	334	378	713	128	310	23	10	324	105	+4	+1	-1	+7	+13	2.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	66%	610	537	134	24	2	13	58	139	10	13	4	250	334	374	708	125	310	23	10	321	104	+3	+1	-1	+7	+13	2.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	595	523	130	23	2	13	57	137	10	12	4	249	334	375	709	126	308	23	10	317	101	+1	+1	-2	+6	+13	1.9
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIA	68%	577	508	123	21	2	12	55	135	9	11	3	242	327	362	689	120	305	23	10	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+6	+13	1.5
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIA	73%	547	481	114	19	2	10	52	131	9	10	3	237	323	347	670	110	301	24	10	305	93	-5	+1	-3	+6	+12	1.1
2042	34	MLB MLE	MIA	68%	499	441	101	16	2	9	47	123	8	8	2	229	315	336	650	107	296	25	9	297	87	-8	+1	-4	+5	+11	0.5
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIA	43%	163	146	34	6	1	2	14	39	2	6	2	233	309	329	637	96	301	24	9	282	89	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	61%	288	255	60	10	1	5	26	67	5	9	3	235	318	341	659	106	302	23	9	290	95	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.9
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	68%	360	319	77	13	2	7	32	83	6	10	3	241	322	361	683	119	301	23	9	295	99	-0	+1	+1	+4	+8	1.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	406	359	87	15	2	8	37	92	7	11	3	242	325	362	687	120	301	23	9	299	102	+1	+1	+1	+4	+9	1.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	72%	446	395	97	17	2	9	41	100	7	11	3	246	327	367	694	122	302	22	9	302	104	+2	+1	+1	+5	+10	1.9
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	72%	453	400	99	17	2	10	42	100	8	11	3	247	331	375	706	128	303	22	9	304	106	+3	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.0
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	454	401	99	17	2	10	42	100	8	11	3	247	330	374	704	127	303	22	9	305	107	+4	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.0
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	456	403	99	17	2	10	42	101	8	11	3	246	329	372	701	127	303	22	9	306	107	+4	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	70%	444	392	96	16	2	10	42	98	7	10	3	245	329	372	701	128	303	22	9	306	107	+4	+1	+1	+5	+10	2.0
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	69%	435	384	95	16	2	10	41	97	7	10	3	247	331	378	709	130	302	22	9	305	106	+3	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.9
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	67%	416	366	90	15	2	9	40	94	7	9	3	246	332	372	703	126	302	23	10	303	105	+3	+1	-0	+4	+9	1.7
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	66%	401	353	86	15	2	8	38	91	7	8	2	244	329	365	695	122	301	23	9	301	104	+2	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.5
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	422	372	90	15	2	9	40	97	7	8	2	242	327	366	693	124	299	23	9	298	101	+0	+1	-1	+5	+9	1.4
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIA	68%	393	347	82	14	1	8	37	92	6	7	2	236	321	352	672	115	297	23	9	293	97	-1	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIA	73%	397	350	80	13	1	7	38	95	6	7	2	229	315	331	646	103	293	24	10	287	93	-3	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.8
2042	34	MLB CTX	MIA	68%	339	299	67	10	1	6	32	83	5	6	2	224	310	324	634	100	288	24	9	279	87	-5	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6273	5541	1338	226	27	128	584	1429	103	145	42	241	325	361	686	120	301	23	9	298	101	+12	+12	-5	+67	+136	22.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	138	23	3	13	61	148	11	15	4	240	326	359	684	118	300	23	9	298	101	+1	+1	-0	+7	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	9437	8321	2066	365	41	199	877	2127	163	247	74	248	332	374	706	125	309	23	9	317	101	+14	+18	-6	+99	+200	33.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	143	25	3	14	60	147	11	17	5	250	332	377	709	127	311	23	9	317	101	+1	+1	-0	+7	+14	2.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#4Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#5Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.9	6,543	138	154	249	328	374	+68	+0	26.8	21.0
/162	664	14	16	+6.9	+0.0	2.7	pk7: 15
#6Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	7.3	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.7	18.1
/162	664	12	17	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arana (OGILVIE)	18	57	37	57	57	231/309/318	86	307	3	19	25%	9%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	250/296/311	61	297	1	19	15%	6%	73	-0.6	302/361/382	79	347	4	36	13%	8%	110	+1.8
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	244/293/346	101	299	6	14	20%	5%	80	-0.1	238/292/336	98	305	7	14	23%	6%	78	-0.3	255/308/363	108	313	9	21	21%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	208/298/282	74	292	3	17	27%	10%	69	-0.9	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	82	-0.0	227/281/295	68	274	3	9	17%	6%	65	-1.2	245/328/327	82	296	5	2	17%	9%	81	-0.0
●Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	69	-0.9	218/303/296	78	282	4	15	22%	9%	74	-0.5	257/357/385	127	281	12	19	12%	12%	112	+2.1
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	54→52	38→40	51→50	55	249/339/328	79	329	6	15	24%	11%	95	+0.9	210/307/287	77	354	4	12	36%	12%	74	-0.6	211/298/307	96	339	8	14	36%	11%	71	-0.6
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	51→61	38→45	49→50	48	238/291/324	86	288	3	12	18%	7%	74	-0.5	234/279/310	76	290	3	12	19%	5%	66	-1.1	270/316/373	102	329	4	17	18%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	52→61	40→45	51→55	43	249/302/344	96	311	7	16	22%	6%	84	+0.2	258/307/344	86	320	6	14	20%	5%	86	+0.3	278/334/376	98	321	6	26	14%	7%	101	+1.2
●Andrés Giménez 2017 · A	18	52→60	40→50	48→55	57	247/331/355	109	280	6	11	14%	10%	98	+1.2	235/295/332	97	297	6	18	22%	5%	79	-0.2	260/325/413	154	312	16	25	21%	5%	105	+1.5
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	54→53	44→45	47→55	51	257/334/386	129	322	9	7	22%	9%	105	+1.7	237/303/349	112	298	9	18	22%	7%	86	+0.3	246/293/372	126	299	14	21	22%	5%	85	+0.2
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	303	3	13	23%	8%	74	-0.6	243/310/336	93	291	7	13	18%	9%	85	+0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	47→51	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/307	86	277	4	15	20%	12%	81	-0.1	224/315/307	83	317	4	21	27%	12%	81	-0.1	223/313/312	89	304	7	28	26%	11%	80	-0.1
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	47→48	41→50	53→45	48	227/287/331	103	273	8	13	20%	7%	76	-0.4	228/306/352	124	285	12	10	23%	9%	88	+0.4	229/316/366	137	276	13	9	21%	10%	94	+0.6
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	40→50	50→40	52	216/294/311	95	269	7	8	22%	9%	74	-0.5	225/287/355	130	281	15	4	24%	8%	81	-0.1	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Domingo Leyba 2014 · A	18	51	44→50	53→45	52	244/312/377	133	284	9	14	17%	8%	95	+1.0	235/278/323	88	288	5	8	19%	5%	70	-0.9	225/285/349	124	255	14	6	18%	7%	78	-0.2
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	48	220/284/320	100	275	8	11	23%	8%	72	-0.7	239/315/371	132	277	15	17	19%	9%	96	+1.0	231/310/363	132	264	16	23	19%	9%	89	+0.4
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps