Luis Arana — OGILVIE

Luis AranaSS Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 18 S/R 5'10" / 154 lbs A HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION208 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .320 / .334

PA138

HR2

SB8

K%25

BB%9

BABIP308

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.9	$16M	+$15M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.1	$16M	+$15M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+3.2	$15M	+$15M
2034	Arb-1	$7M	+3.2	$14M	+$11M
2035	Arb-2	$11M	+3.2	$13M	+$9M
2036	Arb-3	$15M	+3.1	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$36M		$85M	+$71M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	227	195	45	7	3	2	20	24	10	28	9	231	333	328	662	97	251	11	9	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	227	185	55	10	4	5	30	18	10	28	9	297	422	476	898	178	305	8	13	399	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	A	MIA	—	208	180	44	5	1	1	24	51	2	25	8	244	340	300	640	56	331	25	12	292	82	-4	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.6
YTD	18	A	MIA	—	208	170	50	6	1	1	34	36	2	25	8	294	417	359	776	65	363	17	16	359	133	+8	+2	+0	+2	+6	1.8
ROS	18	A	MIA	0%	138	122	29	4	1	2	13	34	2	8	2	236	320	334	654	98	307	25	9	292	81	-3	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.4
ROS	18	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		302	—	—	279	72	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	A	MIA	—	208	181	44	5	1	1	24	51	2	25	8	243	340	298	638	55	328	25	12	292	82	-4	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.6
TOT	18	A	MIA	—	346	302	73	9	2	3	37	85	4	33	10	241	332	314	646	73	322	25	11	292	82	-7	+3	+0	+4	+10	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIA	43%	362	319	75	12	2	5	35	88	5	11	3	235	320	332	653	97	310	24	10	302	89	-4	+1	+1	+4	+10	1.1
2028	20	MLB	MIA	61%	461	406	99	16	3	8	45	110	7	13	4	244	330	357	687	113	310	24	10	310	95	-3	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.7
2029	21	MLB	MIA	68%	532	466	115	19	3	10	53	125	8	14	4	247	334	365	699	118	310	23	10	315	99	-0	+1	+1	+6	+15	2.3
2030	22	MLB	MIA	71%	581	509	126	21	3	12	58	134	9	15	4	248	335	371	706	124	310	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	+1	+6	+16	2.7
2031	23	MLB	MIA	72%	614	539	135	22	4	13	61	141	9	15	4	250	337	378	715	128	311	23	10	321	104	+3	+1	+1	+7	+17	2.9
2032	24	MLB	MIA	72%	630	552	140	23	4	14	63	144	10	15	4	254	341	386	727	132	312	23	10	323	105	+4	+1	+1	+7	+18	3.1
2033	25	MLB	MIA	71%	637	558	141	23	4	14	64	145	10	15	4	253	340	384	724	131	312	23	10	324	106	+4	+1	+1	+7	+18	3.2
2034	26	MLB	MIA	71%	641	561	141	23	4	14	65	146	10	15	4	251	340	381	721	130	312	23	10	324	106	+4	+1	+1	+7	+18	3.2
2035	27	MLB	MIA	70%	638	558	140	23	4	14	65	145	10	15	4	251	340	382	721	131	312	23	10	324	106	+4	+1	+1	+7	+18	3.2
2036	28	MLB	MIA	69%	632	552	137	22	3	14	65	145	10	14	4	248	338	375	713	127	311	23	10	323	106	+4	+1	+0	+7	+18	3.1
2037	29	MLB	MIA	67%	621	542	134	22	3	13	64	144	10	14	4	247	338	371	709	124	311	23	10	322	104	+3	+1	-1	+7	+18	2.8
2038	30	MLB	MIA	66%	610	533	131	21	3	13	63	143	9	13	4	246	336	370	705	124	310	23	10	319	102	+2	+1	-1	+7	+17	2.6
2039	31	MLB	MIA	71%	595	519	126	20	3	12	62	141	9	12	4	243	334	362	696	119	308	24	10	315	99	-0	+1	-2	+6	+17	2.2
2040	32	MLB	MIA	68%	576	503	121	19	3	11	59	139	9	11	3	241	331	356	687	115	305	24	10	310	95	-3	+1	-3	+6	+16	1.8
2041	33	MLB	MIA	73%	547	478	113	17	3	10	56	135	8	10	3	236	327	347	674	111	302	25	10	304	91	-6	+1	-3	+6	+15	1.3
2042	34	MLB	MIA	68%	499	438	98	14	2	8	51	126	7	9	2	224	315	320	634	96	297	25	10	296	84	-9	+1	-4	+5	+14	0.8
2043	35	MLB	MIA	64%	443	389	86	12	2	7	45	115	6	7	2	221	311	316	628	95	291	26	10	287	77	-11	+1	-5	+5	+13	0.2
2044	36	MLB	MIA	55%	382	336	71	9	2	5	38	102	5	6	2	211	301	295	595	83	286	27	10	277	70	-13	+0	-6	+4	+11	-0.3
2027	19	MLB	MIA	43%	156	138	32	5	1	2	15	38	2	5	1	232	316	326	642	94	305	24	10	288	78	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2028	20	MLB	MIA	61%	281	247	59	9	2	5	28	67	4	8	2	239	326	352	678	113	305	24	10	295	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.7
2029	21	MLB	MIA	68%	362	317	76	12	2	7	36	85	6	9	3	240	329	356	685	117	305	23	10	299	87	-5	+1	+1	+4	+10	1.0
2030	22	MLB	MIA	71%	413	363	87	14	2	8	41	96	6	10	3	240	327	355	682	116	305	23	10	303	90	-5	+1	+1	+4	+12	1.3
2031	23	MLB	MIA	72%	444	390	95	15	3	9	44	102	7	11	3	244	331	367	698	123	306	23	10	305	92	-4	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.5
2032	24	MLB	MIA	72%	451	396	97	16	3	9	45	103	7	11	3	245	333	369	701	124	307	23	10	307	93	-4	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.6
2033	25	MLB	MIA	71%	453	397	99	16	3	10	46	103	7	11	3	249	338	380	718	131	307	23	10	308	94	-3	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.6
2034	26	MLB	MIA	71%	455	399	99	16	3	10	46	103	7	11	3	248	336	378	715	130	306	23	10	308	94	-3	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.7
2035	27	MLB	MIA	70%	444	389	94	15	2	9	45	101	7	10	3	242	331	360	691	118	306	23	10	308	94	-3	+1	+1	+5	+13	1.6
2036	28	MLB	MIA	69%	435	380	93	15	2	9	45	100	7	10	3	245	336	366	701	121	306	23	10	307	93	-3	+1	+0	+5	+12	1.5
2037	29	MLB	MIA	67%	416	364	89	14	2	9	43	96	6	9	3	245	334	368	702	124	306	23	10	306	92	-4	+1	-0	+4	+12	1.3
2038	30	MLB	MIA	66%	401	350	85	14	2	8	42	94	6	8	2	243	334	363	697	120	305	23	10	303	90	-4	+1	-1	+4	+11	1.2
2039	31	MLB	MIA	71%	422	369	88	14	2	8	44	100	6	9	2	238	329	352	682	114	303	24	10	300	88	-6	+1	-1	+5	+12	1.0
2040	32	MLB	MIA	68%	393	343	81	13	2	7	41	95	6	8	2	236	328	347	675	111	300	24	10	295	84	-7	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.7
2041	33	MLB	MIA	73%	397	347	80	12	2	7	41	98	6	7	2	231	322	337	660	107	297	25	10	289	79	-9	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.4
2042	34	MLB	MIA	68%	339	296	67	10	2	5	35	86	5	6	2	226	318	324	643	98	292	25	10	281	73	-10	+0	-3	+4	+10	0.1
2043	35	MLB	MIA	64%	281	247	53	7	1	4	28	73	4	5	1	215	305	300	604	85	287	26	10	273	67	-11	+1	-3	+3	+8	-0.2
2044	36	MLB	MIA	55%	208	182	39	5	1	3	21	56	3	3	1	214	306	302	608	88	282	27	10	263	60	-9	+0	-3	+2	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6751	5915	1413	222	37	129	686	1596	102	151	42	239	328	354	683	115	304	24	10	299	87	-100	+13	-11	+72	+191	17.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	136	21	4	12	66	154	10	15	4	239	329	353	681	114	305	24	10	299	87	-10	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	10366	9075	2203	349	59	201	1045	2426	163	260	74	243	332	361	692	118	308	23	10	313	98	-28	+22	-17	+111	+294	39.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	139	22	4	13	66	152	10	16	5	244	333	366	699	121	310	23	10	313	98	-2	+1	-1	+7	+18	2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	227	185	55	10	4	5	30	18	10	28	9	297	422	476	898	178	305	8	13	399	163	+16	+2	—	—	+6	2.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#3Julio Lugolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,290 PA	11	5,290	80	198	270	334	386	+31	+25	23.8	23.1
	/162	664	10	25	270	334	386	+3.9	+3.1	3.0	pk7: 22
#4Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#5Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	11	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
	/162	664	7	18	271	314	372	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	7,009	137	157	244	328	362	+69	+0	26.0	20.3
	/162	664	13	15	244	328	362	+6.6	+0.0	2.5	pk7: 15
#6Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	11	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.6	18.1
	/162	664	12	17	264	333	391	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arana (OGILVIE)	18	57	37	57	61	241/332/314	73	322	3	33	25%	11%	82	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	77	+0.1	246/292/306	60	294	1	19	16%	6%	66	-0.6	304/363/386	81	348	4	36	13%	8%	114	+2.3
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	63	-0.8	208/298/281	73	293	3	17	27%	10%	65	-0.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	245/292/346	101	303	7	14	21%	5%	78	+0.2	237/292/339	102	303	8	14	23%	6%	76	+0.1	255/306/365	110	315	10	22	21%	6%	86	+0.6
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	41→50	50→40	52	218/297/315	97	275	8	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	225/288/361	136	282	16	4	25%	8%	81	+0.4	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
★Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	65	-0.7	215/298/294	79	281	4	15	23%	9%	69	-0.4	259/359/388	129	285	11	20	12%	12%	115	+2.3
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	48→49	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/308	87	276	3	15	20%	12%	79	+0.3	223/313/311	88	314	5	21	27%	11%	79	+0.3	222/315/321	99	301	8	23	26%	12%	81	+0.2
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	53	39→40	51→50	54	247/334/327	80	325	6	15	24%	11%	92	+1.2	210/306/286	76	353	4	12	36%	12%	69	-0.4	219/305/313	93	356	7	15	36%	11%	72	-0.2
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	79	+0.3	227/281/295	68	275	3	9	18%	6%	60	-1.0	246/313/343	97	286	7	1	15%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	47→49	41→50	53→45	48	227/287/331	103	273	8	13	20%	7%	72	-0.2	229/306/358	129	287	12	10	23%	9%	89	+0.9	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	51→61	38→45	49→50	48	238/291/324	86	288	3	12	18%	7%	71	-0.3	236/280/312	76	293	3	12	19%	5%	63	-0.8	270/315/371	102	328	4	17	18%	5%	90	+0.8
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	304	3	13	23%	8%	70	-0.3	246/314/341	95	294	8	13	18%	9%	86	+0.8	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→59	41→50	49→50	58	241/333/346	105	301	8	10	21%	12%	96	+1.5	249/334/387	138	332	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	244/330/384	140	317	13	15	25%	11%	101	+1.8
✕Domingo Leyba 2014 · A	18	51→50	44→50	53→45	52	244/312/377	133	284	9	14	17%	8%	95	+1.4	231/274/320	89	284	6	8	20%	5%	63	-0.8	230/290/372	142	257	18	6	18%	7%	83	+0.3
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
●Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	52→60	40→45	51→55	43	249/302/344	96	311	7	16	22%	6%	82	+0.5	258/307/346	88	320	7	14	21%	5%	84	+0.6	276/333/375	99	320	6	26	15%	7%	100	+1.5
●Andrés Giménez 2017 · A	18	52→60	40→50	48→55	57	247/331/355	109	280	6	11	14%	10%	98	+1.6	236/297/336	100	298	6	18	22%	6%	78	+0.2	261/326/416	155	313	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.0
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51→42	43→45	51→55	52	244/320/360	116	300	9	14	21%	9%	94	+1.3	228/320/325	97	311	8	17	26%	11%	85	+0.7	226/320/360	134	289	14	26	25%	12%	91	+0.8
●Vidal Bruján 2016 · A	18	50→58	37→45	50→65	55	230/302/309	79	254	4	17	11%	8%	73	-0.1	236/293/328	92	268	5	17	13%	7%	73	-0.1	245/304/358	113	290	9	43	18%	7%	82	+0.4
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	47	217/279/316	98	271	8	11	23%	7%	65	-0.7	239/313/375	136	278	16	17	19%	9%	95	+1.4	230/306/371	141	263	18	23	20%	9%	88	+0.7