Victor Acosta — OGILVIE

Victor AcostaSS Dayton Dragons

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION166 act + 24 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .292 / .238

PA24

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP247

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	240	186	53	12	5	5	38	45	12	26	7	285	436	484	920	199	345	19	16	405	160	+17	+2	—	—	+5	2.5
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	165	139	33	7	2	2	21	37	3	5	7	237	350	360	709	122	307	22	13	322	104	+1	-2	—	—	+4	0.3
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	347	87	20	5	2	41	85	21	12	2	251	364	354	719	104	327	21	10	332	111	+5	+2	—	—	+9	1.6
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	404	345	64	13	5	4	44	105	12	14	6	186	299	287	586	101	253	26	11	274	71	-14	+0	—	—	+9	-0.5
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	391	325	73	11	2	1	38	73	19	13	4	225	340	280	620	55	285	19	10	290	82	-8	+1	—	—	+8	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	240	203	41	9	3	3	21	67	12	26	7	202	314	320	634	118	265	28	9	283	78	-6	+2	—	—	+5	0.1
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	165	147	25	5	1	2	13	53	3	5	7	170	252	259	510	88	242	32	8	224	38	-12	-2	—	—	+4	-1.1
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	358	70	16	3	2	30	120	21	12	2	196	296	274	570	78	287	29	7	260	62	-19	+2	—	—	+9	-0.8
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	404	357	53	11	4	2	32	141	12	14	6	148	242	218	460	70	229	35	8	211	29	-34	+0	—	—	+9	-2.6
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	391	336	68	10	2	1	27	99	19	13	4	202	298	253	551	51	264	25	7	243	51	-23	+1	—	—	+8	-1.4
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	240	203	41	9	3	3	21	67	12	26	7	202	314	320	634	118	279	28	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	—	240	186	53	12	5	5	38	45	12	26	7	285	436	484	920	199	345	19	16	405	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	165	147	25	5	1	2	13	53	3	5	7	170	252	259	510	88	247	32	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	165	139	33	7	2	2	21	37	3	5	7	237	350	360	709	122	307	22	13	322	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	358	70	16	3	2	30	120	21	12	2	196	296	274	570	78	288	29	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	347	87	20	5	2	41	85	21	12	2	251	364	354	719	104	327	21	10	332	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	404	357	53	11	4	2	32	141	12	14	6	148	242	218	460	70	237	35	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	404	345	64	13	5	4	44	105	12	14	6	186	299	287	586	101	253	26	11	274	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	391	336	68	10	2	1	27	99	19	13	4	202	298	253	551	51	282	25	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	391	325	73	11	2	1	38	73	19	13	4	225	340	280	620	55	285	19	10	290	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	240	205	41	9	3	3	21	67	12	26	7	200	314	317	631	117	265	28	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	165	148	25	5	1	2	13	53	3	5	7	169	252	257	508	88	242	32	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	357	70	16	3	2	30	120	21	12	2	196	296	275	570	78	287	29	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	404	357	53	11	4	2	32	141	12	14	6	148	242	218	460	70	229	35	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	391	342	68	10	2	1	27	99	19	13	4	199	298	249	547	50	264	25	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	357	70	16	3	2	30	120	21	12	2	196	296	275	570	78	287	29	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	404	357	53	11	4	2	32	141	12	14	6	148	242	218	460	70	229	35	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	391	342	68	10	2	1	27	99	19	13	4	199	298	249	547	50	264	25	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CIN	—	166	144	32	5	3	3	8	43	10	5	2	222	309	361	670	139	290	26	5	292	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CIN	—	166	140	36	6	4	4	11	32	10	5	2	257	352	443	795	186	302	19	7	346	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CIN	0%	24	21	4	1	0	0	2	6	1	1	0	190	292	238	530	48	245	25	8	248	54	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CIN	—	190	165	36	6	3	3	10	49	11	6	2	218	306	345	652	127	287	26	5	286	80	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	35%	434	386	73	13	4	5	29	112	16	9	3	189	274	282	556	93	249	26	7	257	60	-20	+1	+1	+5	+9	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	46%	485	431	85	15	4	8	34	122	17	10	3	197	282	306	588	109	253	25	7	269	68	-18	+1	+1	+5	+11	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	512	454	92	16	5	9	36	128	17	10	4	203	286	319	605	117	255	25	7	275	72	-17	+0	+1	+5	+11	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	528	468	96	17	5	10	38	131	17	11	4	205	289	327	616	122	256	25	7	278	74	-16	+1	+1	+6	+11	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	533	472	96	17	5	10	39	133	17	11	4	203	288	324	612	121	256	25	7	278	74	-16	+1	+1	+6	+12	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	531	470	96	17	5	10	39	133	17	10	4	204	289	326	615	121	256	25	7	277	74	-17	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	524	463	93	16	4	10	39	132	17	9	3	201	287	317	605	117	255	25	7	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+6	+11	-0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	60%	514	454	90	16	4	9	38	131	17	8	3	198	285	311	595	112	254	25	7	273	71	-18	+0	-1	+6	+11	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	35%	150	134	26	5	1	2	10	39	5	3	1	194	275	291	566	97	251	26	7	234	60	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	46%	224	199	40	7	2	4	15	57	8	5	2	201	284	317	600	116	256	25	7	248	68	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	265	235	47	8	2	5	19	66	9	5	2	200	285	315	600	115	258	25	7	255	72	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	286	254	52	9	2	6	21	71	9	6	2	205	289	327	616	122	259	25	7	259	74	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	289	257	52	9	2	6	21	72	9	6	2	202	286	323	609	121	259	25	7	259	74	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	288	256	52	9	2	6	21	72	9	6	2	203	287	324	611	121	258	25	7	258	74	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	302	266	55	10	3	6	23	76	10	5	2	207	294	335	629	128	258	25	8	256	73	-10	+0	-0	+3	+7	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	60%	308	272	56	10	3	6	23	79	10	5	2	206	292	331	623	125	257	26	7	254	71	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2112	1873	380	67	17	41	153	532	69	41	15	203	287	322	610	120	259	25	7	254	65	-71	+2	+1	+23	+46	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	117	21	5	13	47	164	21	13	5	203	287	325	611	122	259	25	7	254	65	-22	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5696	5020	982	179	49	81	417	1508	203	149	54	196	284	299	583	104	260	26	7	265	65	-141	+5	+2	+44	+89	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	112	20	6	9	48	172	23	17	6	195	284	298	583	103	261	26	7	265	65	-22	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.2	2,115	38	41	201	283	316	+23	+8	1.1	1.2
/162	664	12	13	+7.1	+2.5	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Acosta (OGILVIE)	22	30→40	20→25	60	40	179/267/260	80	245	3	7	26%	6%	54	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	46	-2.6	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	65	-1.2	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	68	-0.5
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	44→48	36→40	50	44	207/262/270	63	277	3	15	26%	7%	52	-2.2	208/276/272	64	293	4	11	28%	8%	57	-1.8	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Ivan Castillo 2017 · AA	22	42→52	37→45	55→50	39	201/237/278	77	250	4	16	21%	3%	44	-2.8	232/270/325	93	280	5	12	18%	4%	67	-1.1	253/288/354	102	300	5	11	17%	4%	78	-0.2
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	212/286/308	96	275	7	10	23%	9%	70	-0.8	208/289/307	99	266	6	10	22%	10%	68	-0.7
✕Chris Garia 2014 · A	21	41→51	35→40	52→60	40	195/246/255	60	265	3	17	26%	5%	42	-2.9	228/268/328	100	304	7	28	26%	4%	67	-1.1	232/271/341	109	306	8	32	26%	4%	67	-0.6
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→41	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	67	-1.1	208/276/283	75	319	2	18	32%	8%	60	-1.6	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→45	36→40	51→50	45	181/256/249	69	269	4	15	32%	9%	45	-2.7	201/280/295	94	290	8	14	30%	10%	65	-1.2	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/268/264	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	210/306/281	71	297	4	26	28%	9%	73	-0.6	226/338/275	49	304	3	35	23%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Yeixon Ruiz 2013 · A	22	44	34→30	51→55	45	205/259/255	50	252	2	13	19%	6%	47	-2.5	222/262/285	63	293	3	13	24%	5%	55	-2.0	223/263/286	62	295	3	15	24%	5%	52	-1.1
✕Jose R. Flores 2010 · A	22	41→50	39→40	51→45	44	198/255/282	85	264	7	9	27%	7%	53	-2.1	242/287/330	88	290	7	8	18%	6%	74	-0.5	240/287/320	79	288	5	7	18%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Greg Miclat 2010 · A	23	43→53	34→30	52→60	44	203/252/255	51	267	2	16	24%	6%	44	-2.8	242/297/308	66	320	3	23	23%	7%	74	-0.6	258/317/325	67	341	2	28	23%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Rafael Ynoa 2010 · A	22	40→50	35→40	47→55	51	185/261/243	58	239	2	9	22%	9%	46	-2.6	234/284/311	77	280	5	17	18%	6%	69	-0.9	246/297/319	73	292	5	19	17%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Louis Ott 2007 · A	22	44→48	36→30	52→45	40	203/263/271	68	302	3	10	32%	6%	53	-2.1	225/295/293	68	316	4	6	28%	8%	70	-0.9	230/307/287	57	326	4	5	28%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Raul Linares 2013 · A	22	40	36→45	59→55	42	187/248/257	70	259	2	22	27%	6%	44	-2.8	210/259/304	94	279	6	10	25%	6%	58	-1.7	217/260/323	106	275	7	7	23%	5%	60	-0.5
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	42	182/238/271	89	250	7	11	30%	6%	43	-2.8	225/293/312	87	303	7	9	26%	8%	74	-0.6	234/307/314	80	309	6	8	24%	9%	77	-0.3
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	206/254/297	91	260	7	5	24%	6%	55	-2.0	221/264/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	54	-2.0	231/268/265	34	289	1	6	20%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Argenis Tavarez 2006 · A	22	42	36→30	52→45	43	200/254/268	69	275	3	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	209/262/266	57	280	2	8	24%	6%	51	-2.3	216/271/239	23	286	0	9	23%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Candido Pimentel 2012 · A	22	45	34→30	49→55	46	207/272/257	49	292	2	15	28%	8%	53	-2.1	233/283/290	57	326	2	14	27%	6%	63	-1.3	253/299/303	50	349	1	18	26%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Joe Munoz 2008 · A	22	43	36→30	51→55	44	202/275/270	69	257	2	16	21%	6%	58	-1.7	204/255/269	65	274	3	9	25%	4%	49	-2.4	197/231/226	29	265	0	9	25%	2%	27	-1.1
✕Gabriel Maciel 2022 · A	23	44→52	37→30	54→55	45	208/267/278	70	274	4	19	25%	7%	55	-1.9	220/279/301	81	282	5	13	22%	7%	65	-1.2	232/292/307	76	288	2	11	19%	7%	68	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps