Victor Acosta — OGILVIE

Victor AcostaSS Dayton Dragons

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 185 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†39

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .262 / .245

PA185

HR1

K%27

BB%6

BABIP239

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$-0.0M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	240	204	42	10	3	3	20	69	12	26	7	206	314	328	642	123	289	29	8	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	240	186	53	12	5	5	38	45	12	26	7	285	436	484	920	199	345	19	16	405	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	165	147	25	5	1	2	13	53	3	5	7	170	252	259	510	88	247	32	8	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	165	139	33	7	2	2	21	37	3	5	7	237	350	360	709	122	307	22	13	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	358	67	15	3	1	30	119	21	12	2	187	289	254	543	67	277	29	7	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	347	87	20	5	2	41	85	21	12	2	251	364	354	719	104	327	21	10	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	404	356	53	12	4	2	33	140	12	14	6	149	244	222	466	73	237	35	8	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	404	345	64	13	5	4	44	105	12	14	6	186	299	287	586	101	253	26	11	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	391	336	69	11	2	1	27	99	19	13	4	205	301	259	560	54	286	25	7	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	391	325	73	11	2	1	38	73	19	13	4	225	340	280	620	55	285	19	10	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CIN	—	135	116	22	3	2	2	6	39	9	2	1	190	282	302	584	112	260	29	4	260	57	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
YTD	22	A+	CIN	—	135	113	25	4	2	3	9	29	9	2	1	221	328	372	700	150	265	21	7	311	96	-1	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.5
ROS	22	A+	CIN	0%	185	163	28	5	2	1	12	50	8	3	1	172	262	245	508	74	235	27	6	236	39	-13	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						237	0	0	206	16	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	CIN	—	136	117	22	3	2	2	6	39	9	2	1	188	280	299	579	111	256	29	4	260	57	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
TOT	22	A+	CIN	—	320	279	50	8	4	3	18	89	17	5	2	179	271	269	540	90	247	28	6	246	46	-19	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CIN	35%	434	385	71	13	3	6	30	114	16	8	3	184	271	281	552	96	241	26	7	253	52	-24	+0	+1	+5	+12	-0.6
2028	24	MLB	CIN	46%	485	430	82	15	3	8	35	125	17	9	3	191	278	295	573	105	246	26	7	264	60	-22	+1	+1	+5	+14	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	CIN	52%	512	453	89	16	4	9	37	130	17	9	3	196	282	309	591	113	249	25	7	271	65	-20	+1	+1	+5	+15	0.1
2030	26	MLB	CIN	54%	528	467	93	17	4	10	39	134	17	9	3	199	285	317	602	118	250	25	7	274	68	-19	+1	+1	+6	+15	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CIN	54%	533	470	93	17	4	10	40	135	18	9	3	198	286	315	601	117	250	25	8	274	68	-19	+1	+1	+6	+15	0.3
2032	28	MLB	CIN	54%	531	468	92	16	4	10	41	136	17	9	3	197	285	312	597	115	250	26	8	273	67	-20	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.2
2027	23	MLB	CIN	35%	150	134	24	4	1	2	10	40	5	3	1	179	262	269	530	90	243	27	7	228	33	-11	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
2028	24	MLB	CIN	46%	224	198	39	7	2	4	16	58	8	4	1	197	284	313	597	116	248	26	7	241	43	-15	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.5
2029	25	MLB	CIN	52%	265	235	46	8	2	5	19	67	9	5	2	196	281	311	592	115	251	25	7	248	48	-15	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.5
2030	26	MLB	CIN	54%	286	254	51	9	2	6	21	72	9	5	2	201	285	323	608	122	252	25	7	252	51	-16	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
2031	27	MLB	CIN	54%	289	255	51	9	2	6	22	73	10	5	2	200	289	322	611	122	252	25	8	252	51	-16	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
2032	28	MLB	CIN	54%	288	255	51	9	2	6	22	74	9	5	2	200	287	322	608	122	252	26	8	251	50	-16	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1503	1332	262	46	11	29	110	384	50	27	10	197	283	313	596	116	252	26	7	247	47	-90	+1	+2	+16	+43	-2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	114	20	5	13	48	166	22	12	4	198	285	318	603	120	253	26	7	247	47	-39	+1	+1	+7	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	4819	4237	804	152	37	63	357	1304	177	126	45	190	280	288	568	98	256	27	7	258	56	-242	+7	+4	+52	+137	-4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	108	21	5	8	48	176	24	17	6	189	280	285	565	96	256	27	7	258	56	-33	+1	+1	+7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	240	186	53	12	5	5	38	45	12	26	7	285	436	484	920	199	345	19	16	405	168	+19	+2	—	—	+7	2.8
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	165	139	33	7	2	2	21	37	3	5	7	237	350	360	709	122	307	22	13	322	105	+1	-2	—	—	+5	0.4
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	411	347	87	20	5	2	41	85	21	12	2	251	364	354	719	104	327	21	10	332	112	+6	+2	—	—	+12	1.9
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	404	345	64	13	5	4	44	105	12	14	6	186	299	287	586	101	253	26	11	274	68	-15	+0	—	—	+11	-0.3
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	391	325	73	11	2	1	38	73	19	13	4	225	340	280	620	55	285	19	10	290	80	-9	+1	—	—	+11	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,504	27	26	195	279	307	+16	+6	0.0	0.2
	/162	664	12	12	195	279	307	+7.1	+2.6	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Acosta (OGILVIE)	22	30→40	20→25	60	40	179/271/269	90	247	3	5	28%	6%	46	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	43→47	36→40	50	45	203/261/265	62	273	3	15	26%	7%	43	-2.2	204/274/269	65	289	4	11	28%	8%	51	-1.7	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Ivan Castillo 2017 · AA	22	42→52	37→40	56→50	39	200/235/279	79	248	4	16	21%	3%	36	-2.7	229/267/320	91	279	5	12	19%	4%	60	-1.0	246/281/342	96	295	5	11	18%	3%	69	-0.3
✕Chris Garia 2014 · A	21	40→50	35→40	52→60	40	192/243/253	60	262	3	17	27%	5%	33	-2.9	227/267/329	102	307	7	28	27%	4%	63	-0.9	231/270/343	112	308	8	32	27%	4%	63	-0.5
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→38	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	63	-0.9	207/276/283	76	320	2	18	33%	8%	55	-1.4	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Alfredo Angarita 2018 · A	21	41	35→30	51→55	49	194/273/255	61	268	2	16	27%	9%	47	-1.9	202/266/258	56	293	2	10	29%	7%	44	-2.1	195/259/238	43	283	1	9	29%	7%	33	-1.3
✕Greg Miclat 2010 · A	23	43→53	34→30	52→60	44	203/252/255	51	267	2	16	24%	6%	37	-2.7	243/297/311	68	324	3	23	24%	6%	70	-0.3	261/318/330	69	347	2	28	24%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→44	36→40	51→50	45	179/255/247	68	273	4	15	33%	9%	37	-2.6	199/279/294	95	294	8	14	32%	10%	59	-1.1	198/284/290	92	298	8	15	33%	10%	58	-0.7
✕Jose R. Flores 2010 · A	22	41→51	39→40	51→45	44	198/255/282	85	264	7	9	27%	7%	46	-2.0	243/289/332	89	292	7	8	18%	6%	72	-0.2	242/290/323	81	290	5	7	18%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Candido Pimentel 2012 · A	22	45	34→30	49→55	46	207/272/257	49	292	2	15	28%	8%	46	-2.0	235/284/291	56	331	2	14	27%	6%	59	-1.1	256/301/305	49	357	1	18	27%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Raul Linares 2013 · A	22	40	36→45	59→55	42	187/248/257	70	259	2	22	27%	6%	37	-2.7	210/259/304	94	279	6	10	25%	6%	53	-1.5	217/260/323	106	275	7	7	23%	5%	55	-0.5
✕Argenis Tavarez 2006 · A	22	42	36→30	52→45	43	200/254/268	69	275	3	10	27%	7%	42	-2.3	209/262/266	57	280	2	8	24%	6%	44	-2.1	216/271/239	23	286	0	9	23%	7%	39	-0.9
✕Rafael Ynoa 2010 · A	22	40→50	35→40	47→55	51	185/261/243	58	239	2	9	22%	9%	39	-2.5	234/285/310	76	281	5	17	18%	7%	66	-0.6	245/298/316	71	292	5	19	17%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Dreily Guerrero 2012 · A	21	38	35→30	54→55	40	180/239/245	66	276	2	13	34%	7%	30	-3.1	178/224/242	64	308	3	9	41%	5%	22	-3.7	150/190/213	63	273	5	12	45%	5%	-2	-1.6
✕Yeixon Ruiz 2013 · A	22	44	34→40	51→55	45	205/259/255	50	252	2	13	19%	6%	40	-2.4	221/260/286	65	291	3	13	24%	5%	48	-1.9	220/260/285	65	291	3	15	24%	4%	44	-1.0
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	39→49	36→40	52→60	46	186/254/253	67	244	3	17	24%	7%	38	-2.6	222/285/312	90	295	5	23	25%	7%	66	-0.6	225/290/312	88	297	5	28	24%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Reidy Mercado 2023 · A	22	40	35→30	54→60	38	186/241/238	52	298	2	17	36%	6%	28	-3.2	187/236/245	58	305	3	23	37%	6%	27	-3.3	164/209/207	43	271	1	36	38%	5%	3	-1.2
✕Drew Stankiewicz 2015 · A	22	39→49	37→45	51→45	38	192/239/261	70	279	5	9	32%	6%	33	-2.9	225/281/310	85	293	4	7	23%	7%	63	-0.8	230/290/321	91	297	5	5	23%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Joe Munoz 2008 · A	22	43	36→30	51→55	44	202/275/270	69	257	2	16	21%	6%	53	-1.5	204/255/269	65	274	3	9	25%	4%	42	-2.3	197/231/226	29	265	0	9	25%	2%	17	-1.1