Victor Acosta — OGILVIE

Victor AcostaSS Dayton Dragons

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2030

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .277 / .263

PA320

HR2

SB7

K%28

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗40

PWR

20↗25

SPD

60→60

FLD

45↗55

EYE

48↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$9M		$41M	+$32M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	240	204	40	9	2	3	20	67	12	26	7	.196	.305	.304	.609	.108	.270	28	8	.275	69	-9	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	165	147	25	5	1	2	13	53	3	5	7	.170	.252	.259	.510	.088	.247	32	8	.223	29	-13	-2	+0	+2	+5	-0.9
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	411	358	70	16	3	2	30	120	21	12	2	.196	.296	.274	.570	.078	.288	29	7	.259	56	-20	+2	+0	+4	+12	-0.3
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	404	357	54	11	4	2	32	132	12	14	6	.151	.244	.221	.466	.070	.232	33	8	.215	23	-35	+0	+0	+4	+11	-1.9
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	391	336	70	10	2	1	27	93	19	13	4	.208	.304	.259	.563	.051	.283	24	7	.248	48	-23	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	CIN	320	282	54	10	2	2	24	89	11	7	2	.191	.281	.262	.543	.071	.269	28	8	.254	53	-17	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	CIN	434	383	78	15	3	5	34	117	14	9	3	.204	.292	.298	.590	.094	.273	27	8	.271	66	-17	+1	+1	+5	+12	0.1
2028	24	MLB 26%	CIN	485	427	90	17	3	8	40	127	15	11	3	.211	.301	.321	.622	.110	.275	26	8	.282	74	-14	+1	+1	+5	+14	0.6
2029	25	MLB 44%	CIN	512	449	95	18	3	9	43	133	15	11	3	.212	.302	.325	.627	.114	.277	26	8	.288	79	-12	+1	+1	+5	+15	1.0
2030	26	MLB 59%	CIN	528	463	99	18	3	10	45	136	15	12	3	.214	.304	.330	.634	.117	.278	26	9	.291	81	-11	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.2
2031	27	MLB 76%	CIN	533	467	99	18	3	10	46	138	15	12	3	.212	.303	.328	.631	.116	.278	26	9	.292	81	-11	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.2
2032	28	MLB 84%	CIN	531	464	98	18	3	10	47	139	15	11	3	.211	.304	.328	.632	.116	.278	26	9	.290	80	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.0
2033	29	MLB 90%	CIN	524	458	97	18	3	10	46	138	15	10	3	.212	.304	.330	.634	.118	.277	26	9	.288	79	-13	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.8
2034	30	MLB	CIN	514	449	93	17	3	9	45	137	15	9	2	.207	.301	.318	.619	.111	.275	27	9	.285	76	-14	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.6
2035	31	MLB	CIN	501	438	90	17	3	8	44	136	14	7	1	.205	.298	.313	.611	.107	.274	27	9	.281	74	-15	+1	-2	+5	+14	0.4
2036	32	MLB	CIN	483	423	86	16	3	8	43	134	14	6	1	.203	.298	.312	.610	.109	.272	28	9	.277	70	-16	+1	-3	+5	+14	0.1
2037	33	MLB	CIN	454	398	79	14	3	7	40	129	13	4	0	.198	.293	.302	.594	.103	.271	28	9	.272	66	-17	+1	-4	+5	+13	-0.2
2038	34	MLB	CIN	408	359	69	12	2	6	35	119	11	4	0	.192	.284	.287	.571	.095	.269	29	9	.266	61	-18	+1	-4	+4	+12	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7838	6862	1386	259	49	112	654	2137	249	183	53	.202	.295	.303	.598	.101	.274	27	8	.274	68	-288	+15	-11	+84	+222	2.4
/ 162G	—			650	569	114	21	4	9	54	177	21	15	4	.200	.293	.299	.592	.098	.272	27	8	.274	68	-24	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	240	186	53	12	5	5	38	45	12	26	7	.285	.436	.484	.920	.199	.345	19	16	.405	168	+19	+2	—	—	+7	2.8
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	165	139	33	7	2	2	21	37	3	5	7	.237	.350	.360	.709	.122	.307	22	13	.322	105	+1	-2	—	—	+5	0.4
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	411	347	87	20	5	2	41	85	21	12	2	.251	.364	.354	.719	.104	.327	21	10	.332	112	+6	+2	—	—	+12	1.9
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	404	345	64	13	5	4	44	105	12	14	6	.186	.299	.287	.586	.101	.253	26	11	.274	68	-15	+0	—	—	+11	-0.3
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	391	325	73	11	2	1	38	73	19	13	4	.225	.340	.280	.620	.055	.285	19	10	.290	80	-9	+1	—	—	+11	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Acosta (OGILVIE)	22	30→40	20→25	60	40	.190/.277/.263	.073	.269	2	7	28%	7%	53	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	35→30	50→55	45	.193/.257/.255	.062	.261	3	15	26%	7%	40	-2.4	.210/.292/.281	.071	.312	3	15	30%	10%	62	-0.9	.210/.320/.274	.064	.324	2	21	31%	13%	69	-0.2
✕Louis Ott 2007 · A	22	44→48	36→30	52→45	40	.203/.263/.271	.068	.302	3	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	.225/.294/.293	.068	.315	4	6	27%	8%	66	-0.6	.231/.308/.288	.057	.326	4	5	27%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	43	37→30	51→60	45	.202/.271/.271	.070	.286	4	11	29%	8%	50	-1.7	.211/.307/.281	.070	.293	4	26	27%	8%	69	-0.4	.229/.340/.278	.049	.305	3	35	22%	10%	80	+0.1
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→39	38→40	61→60	48	.207/.284/.298	.091	.280	3	20	26%	8%	63	-0.9	.210/.279/.286	.076	.314	2	18	31%	8%	57	-1.2	.219/.291/.296	.077	.328	2	26	31%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	43	40→30	50→45	43	.207/.256/.299	.091	.264	7	6	24%	6%	50	-1.7	.225/.268/.285	.060	.282	3	6	20%	5%	51	-1.7	.234/.271/.267	.033	.288	1	6	19%	4%	46	-0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	.206/.285/.274	.068	.268	3	8	23%	8%	57	-1.2	.226/.305/.314	.088	.269	4	8	16%	8%	76	+0.1	.231/.320/.325	.095	.269	5	9	15%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→60	47	.215/.281/.293	.077	.280	1	18	22%	8%	59	-1.1	.228/.289/.316	.088	.298	4	17	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.245/.306/.339	.094	.314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	41→50	39→45	57→55	45	.197/.265/.287	.090	.262	6	17	26%	7%	52	-1.6	.220/.297/.304	.084	.293	6	16	25%	9%	70	-0.3	.229/.318/.327	.099	.300	9	17	24%	11%	81	+0.3
✕Reidy Mercado 2023 · A	22	41	35→30	54→60	38	.191/.247/.246	.055	.302	3	17	36%	6%	33	-2.9	.190/.239/.247	.057	.309	3	22	37%	6%	30	-3.1	.169/.213/.213	.045	.279	1	36	38%	5%	6	-1.2
✕Candido Pimentel 2012 · A	22	45	34→30	50→55	47	.210/.276/.262	.052	.294	2	15	27%	8%	50	-1.8	.234/.284/.290	.056	.325	2	14	26%	6%	59	-1.1	.256/.302/.306	.050	.350	1	18	26%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Dreily Guerrero 2012 · A	21	39	35→30	54→55	41	.182/.244/.247	.064	.276	2	14	32%	7%	32	-3.0	.177/.222/.241	.064	.301	3	9	40%	5%	20	-3.8	.149/.187/.213	.063	.267	5	12	44%	4%	-4	-1.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→43	36→40	50	45	.180/.255/.246	.066	.273	3	13	33%	9%	37	-2.6	.198/.277/.295	.097	.290	9	14	32%	10%	59	-1.1	.195/.282/.288	.093	.289	8	15	32%	10%	56	-0.7
✕Riley Unroe 2018 · AA	22	40→47	37→45	46→55	44	.192/.258/.257	.065	.276	4	12	30%	8%	41	-2.3	.204/.270/.291	.087	.291	7	12	30%	8%	55	-1.4	.221/.306/.342	.121	.297	13	26	28%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Alfredo Angarita 2018 · A	21	41	35→30	51→55	49	.194/.274/.256	.062	.268	2	15	26%	9%	48	-1.9	.202/.266/.257	.055	.287	2	10	28%	8%	44	-2.1	.194/.258/.236	.042	.276	1	9	28%	7%	32	-1.3
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	37→47	39→40	49→50	43	.183/.239/.268	.085	.247	7	10	28%	7%	36	-2.7	.222/.288/.312	.090	.301	7	10	27%	8%	68	-0.5	.234/.306/.318	.084	.309	7	8	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Elih Marrero 2019 · A	22	46	36→40	49→55	47	.214/.278/.283	.069	.280	3	5	24%	8%	56	-1.3	.212/.271/.291	.079	.283	5	9	25%	7%	55	-1.4	.207/.287/.272	.066	.304	3	27	30%	10%	55	-0.5
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→43	36→30	47→60	47	.226/.287/.294	.067	.288	2	10	21%	7%	62	-0.9	.230/.323/.285	.055	.320	2	26	25%	12%	76	+0.1	.224/.333/.269	.045	.305	1	34	23%	14%	74	-0.0
✕Greg Miclat 2010 · A	23	42→52	34→30	52→60	43	.198/.243/.250	.052	.258	2	16	23%	6%	32	-3.0	.239/.293/.304	.065	.318	3	22	24%	6%	67	-0.5	.260/.319/.327	.067	.348	2	28	24%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Erlin Cerda 2017 · A	23	45	36→40	53→55	44	.210/.273/.281	.071	.280	2	13	24%	6%	53	-1.5	.196/.241/.267	.071	.299	3	8	33%	5%	35	-2.8	.166/.201/.211	.044	.261	0	8	35%	4%	-1	-1.2
✕Argenis Tavarez 2006 · A	22	43	37→30	52→45	43	.202/.257/.273	.071	.279	3	10	28%	7%	44	-2.1	.208/.261/.263	.055	.279	2	9	24%	6%	43	-2.2	.216/.271/.239	.023	.286	0	9	23%	7%	39	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)