Victor Acosta

SS Dayton Dragons
Age 23 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1614ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202420A+CIN404.186/.299/.28741438—.158/.254/.228
202521A+CIN391.225/.340/.28011357—.211/.306/.262
202622A+CIN166.257/.352/.4434589—.236/.321/.389
2027PROJMLE23MLBCIN1.200/.282/.2850063-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB24MLBCIN45.207/.288/.30711690.0
2029PROJ44% MLB25MLBCIN93.211/.292/.32012740.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$1M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed91
K%76
Z-Con%67
ISO66
wOBA59
wRC+55
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%
CompsGreg Miclat (age 23) · Arquímedes Gamboa (age 23) · Gabriel Maciel (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†63
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .285
PA1
HR0
K%24
BB%7
BABIP262
ISO87
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +2.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.10.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$1M———
Totals $0.0M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202117 ROKDSL Padres — 240186 531255 384512 267 285436484920 199345 1916 405 65 — — — — — —
202218 ROKACL Reds — 165139 33722 21373 57 237350360709 122307 2213 322 41 — — — — — —
202319 ADaytona Tortugas — 411347 872052 418521 122 251364354719 104327 2110 332 63 — — — — — —
202420 A+Dayton Dragons — 404345 641354 4410512 146 186299287586 101253 2611 274 38 — — — — — —
202521 A+Dayton Dragons — 391325 731121 387319 134 225340280620 55285 1910 290 57 — — — — — —
202622 A+Dayton Dragons — 166140 36644 113210 52 257352443795 186302 197 346 89 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202117 ROK MLEDSL Padres — 240200 36832 245612 267 180305280585 100224 2310 264 65 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEACL Reds — 165147 26512 13533 57 177258265523 88248 328 229 41 — — — — — —
202319 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 411359 741542 2911521 122 206303287590 81292 287 262 63 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 404355 561142 3413312 146 158254228483 70240 338 224 38 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 391336 711021 279319 134 211306262568 51273 247 253 57 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 166144 34543 84110 52 236321389710 153284 255 300 89 — — — — — —
202117 ROK MLEDSL Padres — 240200 36832 245612 267 180305280585 100234 2310 264 65 — — — — — —
202117 ROK RAWDSL Padres — 240186 531255 384512 267 285436484920 199345 1916 405 65 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEACL Reds — 165147 26512 13533 57 177258265523 88258 328 229 41 — — — — — —
202218 ROK RAWACL Reds — 165139 33722 21373 57 237350360709 122307 2213 322 41 — — — — — —
202319 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 411359 741542 2911521 122 206303287590 81298 287 262 63 — — — — — —
202319 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 411347 872052 418521 122 251364354719 104327 2110 332 63 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 404355 561142 3413312 146 158254228483 70244 338 224 38 — — — — — —
202420 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 404345 641354 4410512 146 186299287586 101253 2611 274 38 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 391336 711021 279319 134 211306262568 51287 247 253 57 — — — — — —
202521 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 391325 731121 387319 134 225340280620 55285 1910 290 57 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 166144 34543 84110 52 236321389710 153304 255 300 89 — — — — — —
202622 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 166140 36644 113210 52 257352443795 186302 197 346 89 — — — — — —
202117 ROK MLEDSL Padres — 240202 36832 245612 267 178305277582 99224 2310 264 65 — — — — — —
202218 ROK MLEACL Reds — 165148 26512 13533 57 176258264521 88248 328 229 41 — — — — — —
202319 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 411358 741542 2911521 122 207303288591 81292 287 262 63 — — — — — —
202420 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 404355 561142 3413312 146 158254228483 70240 338 224 38 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 391342 711021 279319 134 208306257564 50273 247 253 57 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 166147 34543 84110 52 231321381702 150284 255 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202420 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 404355 561142 3413312 146 158254228483 70240 338 224 38 — — — — — —
202521 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 391342 711021 279319 134 208306257564 50273 247 253 57 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 166147 34543 84110 52 231321381702 150284 255 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLECIN 0% 332295 591033 228112 72 199281282563 83262 247 261 63 -15 +1 +1 +4 +7 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXCIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 200282285567 85262 00 262 63 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLECIN 30% 147131 27512 10355 31 205287302589 97264 247 271 69 -5 +0 +1 +2 +3 0.0
202925 MLB MLECIN 44% 210186 39723 15507 41 209291315606 106266 247 277 74 -7 +0 +1 +2 +5 0.2
203026 MLB MLECIN 51% 266237 50924 19638 52 212293323616 111267 247 281 76 -8 +0 +1 +3 +6 0.3
203127 MLB MLECIN 52% 300266 561025 22729 62 212294325618 112268 247 282 77 -8 +0 +1 +3 +6 0.3
203228 MLB MLECIN 53% 319284 611135 23779 52 212293325618 112268 247 281 76 -9 +0 +1 +3 +7 0.3
203329 MLB MLECIN 53% 321286 611135 23789 42 210290319609 109267 247 278 74 -10 +0 +0 +3 +7 0.1
203430 MLB MLECIN 56% 319284 581025 23799 31 207287311598 104266 257 273 71 -11 +0 -1 +3 +7 -0.1
202824 MLB CTXCIN 30% 4540 8101 3112 10 207288307595 100265 247 273 69 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.0
202925 MLB CTXCIN 44% 9384 17311 6223 21 211292320613 110267 246 280 74 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203026 MLB CTXCIN 51% 135120 25412 10324 31 213295329623 115268 247 284 76 -4 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.1
203127 MLB CTXCIN 52% 157140 30513 11375 31 214295331626 117269 247 284 77 -4 +0 +1 +2 +3 0.2
203228 MLB CTXCIN 53% 170151 32613 12415 31 214295331625 116269 247 284 76 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.1
203329 MLB CTXCIN 53% 169150 31513 12415 21 212292324616 113268 247 280 74 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.0
203430 MLB CTXCIN 56% 180160 34613 13445 11 209288317605 108267 247 276 71 -6 -0 -0 +2 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 949845 17730616 6722829 156 209290316606 107266 247 281 66 -29 +1 +2 +10 +21 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 12221411 4615620 104 211291318609 107267 247 281 66 -20 +0 +2 +7 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 37753318 6701213442 278973137 10740 202291297588 95270 267 265 66 -63 +2 +5 +21 +43 0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650571 1152167 4816824 187 201291296587 95270 267 265 66 -20 +1 +2 +7 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 166 PAwOBA .341 → .300 (−41)K% 19.3% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.28%÷1.000×1.270——24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.63%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0124.76%
HBP% /PA6.02%—×0.790—×1.0124.82%
Singles /BIP20.37%÷1.000×0.920×1.050×1.01219.91%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷1.000×0.810×1.050×1.0124.78%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.850×1.050×1.0123.35%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0123.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .341 → .300; ISO .186 → .160; BABIP .302 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 391 PAwOBA .285 → .253 (−32)K% 18.7% → 23.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.67%÷0.999×1.270——23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.72%÷1.006×0.710—×1.0277.05%
HBP% /PA4.86%—×0.790—×1.0273.94%
Singles /BIP23.41%÷0.987×0.920×1.013×1.02722.70%
Doubles /BIP4.37%÷0.928×0.810×1.013×1.0273.96%
Triples /BIP0.79%÷0.900×0.850×1.013×1.0270.78%
Home runs /BIP0.40%÷1.124×0.800—×1.0270.29%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .285 → .253; ISO .055 → .050; BABIP .285 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 404 PAwOBA .268 → .224 (−44)K% 26.0% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.99%÷1.006×1.270——32.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.89%÷0.976×0.710—×1.0428.26%
HBP% /PA2.97%—×0.790—×1.0422.45%
Singles /BIP17.50%÷1.023×0.920×1.037×1.04217.00%
Doubles /BIP5.42%÷0.941×0.810×1.037×1.0425.03%
Triples /BIP2.08%÷1.030×0.850×1.037×1.0421.86%
Home runs /BIP1.67%÷1.285×0.800—×1.0421.08%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .268 → .224; ISO .101 → .079; BABIP .253 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 411 PAwOBA .323 → .262 (−60)K% 20.7% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.68%÷1.006×1.360——27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.73%÷1.006×0.690—×1.0456.98%
HBP% /PA5.11%—×0.780—×1.0454.16%
Singles /BIP22.90%÷1.032×0.920×1.001×1.04521.35%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷1.100×0.830×1.001×1.0456.03%
Triples /BIP1.91%÷1.083×0.910×1.001×1.0451.68%
Home runs /BIP0.76%÷1.060×0.800—×1.0450.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .323 → .262; ISO .104 → .081; BABIP .327 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 165 PAwOBA .316 → .229 (−88)K% 22.4% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.42%÷1.005×1.440——32.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.73%÷1.011×0.620—×1.0227.98%
HBP% /PA1.82%—×0.720—×1.0221.34%
Singles /BIP21.57%÷1.022×0.820×1.024×1.02218.12%
Doubles /BIP6.86%÷1.035×0.720×1.024×1.0225.00%
Triples /BIP1.96%÷0.983×0.720×1.024×1.0221.50%
Home runs /BIP1.96%÷0.970×0.780—×1.0221.61%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .316 → .229; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .307 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Padres · 240 PAwOBA .397 → .264 (−133)K% 18.8% → 23.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.972×1.220——23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.58%÷1.046×0.700—×1.0229.98%
HBP% /PA5.00%—×0.700—×1.0223.58%
Singles /BIP21.99%÷0.991×0.680×0.986×1.02215.20%
Doubles /BIP8.51%÷0.947×0.600×0.986×1.0225.43%
Triples /BIP3.55%÷1.150×0.600×0.986×1.0221.86%
Home runs /BIP3.55%÷1.199×0.470—×1.0221.42%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .397 → .264; ISO .199 → .109; BABIP .345 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).