Ripken Reyes
SS San Antonio Missions| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AASD | 528 | .257/.409/.359 | 6 | 30 | 88 | — | .227/.364/.317 |
| 2024 | 27 | AASD | 506 | .225/.351/.311 | 4 | 16 | 57 | — | .197/.304/.270 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/AASD | 362 | .232/.360/.343 | 2 | 3 | 67 | — | .213/.309/.312 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBSD | 3 | .215/.304/.300 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 31 | MLBSD | 45 | .212/.300/.295 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 59 | 49 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 397 | 429 | 825 | 143 | 295 | 8 | 8 | 369 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | — | 200 | 165 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 315 | 423 | 430 | 854 | 115 | 352 | 10 | 8 | 382 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 70 | 50 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 280 | 463 | 280 | 743 | 424 | 24 | 9 | 356 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 32 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 364 | 548 | 591 | 1.139 | 227 | 471 | 16 | 22 | 483 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 247 | 191 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 241 | 380 | 288 | 668 | 47 | 279 | 12 | 11 | 306 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 169 | 139 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 361 | 367 | 728 | 144 | 259 | 15 | 11 | 337 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 528 | 409 | 105 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 78 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 257 | 409 | 359 | 768 | 103 | 304 | 15 | 11 | 352 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 408 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 63 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 225 | 351 | 311 | 662 | 86 | 255 | 12 | 9 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 139 | 110 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 385 | 373 | 757 | 100 | 306 | 9 | 11 | 326 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 223 | 179 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 346 | 324 | 670 | 117 | 227 | 11 | 13 | 306 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 59 | 51 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 345 | 392 | 737 | 137 | 253 | 12 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 2 | — | 200 | 171 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 234 | 332 | 316 | 647 | 82 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 70 | 52 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 418 | 250 | 668 | 375 | 33 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 32 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 320 | 452 | 520 | 972 | 200 | 399 | 22 | 12 | 394 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 247 | 198 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 237 | 355 | 278 | 632 | 40 | 261 | 14 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 169 | 145 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 302 | 303 | 605 | 117 | 215 | 19 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 528 | 423 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 97 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 227 | 364 | 317 | 681 | 90 | 263 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 422 | 83 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 197 | 304 | 270 | 574 | 73 | 217 | 15 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 139 | 116 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 338 | 345 | 683 | 86 | 273 | 12 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 223 | 189 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 185 | 290 | 291 | 581 | 106 | 199 | 13 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 222 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 239 | 335 | 333 | 668 | 95 | 274 | 14 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 259 | 214 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 308 | 417 | 430 | 847 | 121 | 339 | 10 | 8 | 379 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 77 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 273 | 429 | 338 | 766 | 65 | 447 | 29 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 102 | 72 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 306 | 490 | 375 | 865 | 69 | 440 | 22 | 13 | 396 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 343 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 67 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 216 | 333 | 289 | 621 | 73 | 260 | 16 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 416 | 330 | 77 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 54 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 233 | 372 | 321 | 693 | 88 | 271 | 13 | 11 | 319 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 528 | 423 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 97 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 227 | 364 | 317 | 681 | 90 | 280 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 528 | 409 | 105 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 78 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 257 | 409 | 359 | 768 | 103 | 304 | 15 | 11 | 352 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 422 | 83 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 197 | 304 | 270 | 574 | 73 | 230 | 15 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 408 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 63 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 225 | 351 | 311 | 662 | 86 | 255 | 12 | 9 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 305 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 44 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 311 | 318 | 629 | 102 | 245 | 12 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 362 | 289 | 67 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 45 | 37 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 360 | 343 | 703 | 111 | 258 | 10 | 12 | 314 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 225 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 236 | 335 | 329 | 664 | 93 | 258 | 14 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 80 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 429 | 325 | 754 | 62 | 383 | 29 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 353 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 67 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 210 | 333 | 280 | 613 | 71 | 242 | 16 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 528 | 432 | 96 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 97 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 222 | 364 | 310 | 674 | 88 | 263 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 436 | 83 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 190 | 304 | 261 | 565 | 71 | 217 | 15 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 317 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 44 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 311 | 306 | 617 | 98 | 227 | 12 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 506 | 436 | 83 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 190 | 304 | 261 | 565 | 71 | 217 | 15 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 317 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 44 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 311 | 306 | 617 | 98 | 227 | 12 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 2% | 380 | 335 | 73 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 219 | 307 | 306 | 614 | 87 | 256 | 15 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 304 | 300 | 603 | 84 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | SD | 23% | 200 | 176 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 303 | 302 | 605 | 86 | 255 | 16 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | SD | 23% | 45 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 300 | 295 | 595 | 83 | 250 | 16 | 7 | 275 | 75 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 289 | 250 | 539 | 50 | 242 | 16 | 7 | 275 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 116 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 101 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 289 | 251 | 540 | 50 | 243 | 16 | 7 | 275 | 74 | -19 | +0 | -9 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2528 | 2104 | 462 | 76 | 24 | 18 | 183 | 409 | 168 | 81 | 24 | 220 | 331 | 304 | 635 | 85 | 262 | 16 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -10 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 541 | 119 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 105 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 220 | 331 | 307 | 638 | 87 | 262 | 16 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -18 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 223 PAwOBA .300 → .254 (−46)K% 10.8% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.76% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.59% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 3.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.48% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.968 | 13.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.973 | ×0.968 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.968 | 2.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .300 → .254; ISO .117 → .106; BABIP .227 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 139 PAwOBA .318 → .290 (−28)K% 9.4% → 11.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.35% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.65% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .318 → .290; ISO .100 → .091; BABIP .306 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 506 PAwOBA .297 → .253 (−44)K% 12.5% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.72% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 5.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .297 → .253; ISO .086 → .075; BABIP .255 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 528 PAwOBA .345 → .299 (−46)K% 14.8% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.77% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.28% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 7.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 21.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 3.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.81% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .345 → .299; ISO .103 → .093; BABIP .304 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 247 PAwOBA .303 → .279 (−24)K% 11.7% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.74% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.93% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.48% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 5.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 22.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .303 → .279; ISO .047 → .044; BABIP .279 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 169 PAwOBA .329 → .260 (−69)K% 14.8% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.79% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 18.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.51% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 5.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 13.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .260; ISO .144 → .114; BABIP .259 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 70 PAwOBA .349 → .293 (−56)K% 24.3% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.29% | ÷1.011 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 15.71% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 12.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.42% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 37.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.067 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 113, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .349 → .293; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .424 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALake Elsinore Storm · 32 PAwOBA .465 → .394 (−70)K% 15.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.62% | ÷0.932 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 12.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 4.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 13.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 5.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.815 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 100, 2B 111, 3B 106, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .465 → .394; ISO .227 → .208; BABIP .471 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).