Jacob Berry
3B Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA/AAMIA | 528 | .239/.309/.363 | 11 | 14 | 57 | — | .214/.265/.318 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 553 | .267/.361/.393 | 10 | 29 | 79 | — | .219/.289/.328 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAAKC | 418 | .251/.357/.416 | 12 | 19 | 82 | — | .221/.303/.347 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBKC | 16 | .226/.296/.339 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBKC | 70 | .226/.296/.339 | 1 | 2 | 83 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBKC | 106 | .225/.295/.338 | 2 | 3 | 82 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 148 | 125 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 264 | 366 | 392 | 758 | 128 | 294 | 16 | 9 | 340 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 125 | 347 | 200 | 33 | 6 | 180 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 123 | 113 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 248 | 303 | 442 | 746 | 195 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 326 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 345 | 317 | 72 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 282 | 369 | 651 | 142 | 275 | 20 | 5 | 287 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 76 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 265 | 333 | 441 | 775 | 176 | 356 | 29 | 8 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 103 | 91 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 242 | 317 | 374 | 690 | 132 | 274 | 17 | 10 | 305 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 425 | 386 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 87 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 238 | 307 | 360 | 667 | 122 | 285 | 20 | 7 | 302 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 469 | 406 | 106 | 28 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 87 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 261 | 352 | 394 | 746 | 133 | 310 | 19 | 10 | 334 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 84 | 70 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 300 | 410 | 386 | 795 | 86 | 365 | 20 | 14 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 351 | 88 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 66 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 357 | 416 | 773 | 165 | 270 | 16 | 12 | 342 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 148 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 303 | 326 | 629 | 109 | 246 | 22 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 62 | 229 | 164 | 50 | 6 | 116 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 123 | 116 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 216 | 254 | 379 | 633 | 164 | 250 | 26 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 345 | 322 | 60 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 88 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 232 | 301 | 533 | 115 | 235 | 26 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 103 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 277 | 358 | 635 | 126 | 256 | 21 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 425 | 396 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 102 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 210 | 262 | 308 | 570 | 98 | 259 | 24 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 469 | 421 | 92 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 107 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 219 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 109 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 366 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 221 | 303 | 347 | 650 | 126 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 288 | 297 | 585 | 97 | 250 | 25 | 6 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 166 | 141 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 350 | 362 | 711 | 113 | 286 | 17 | 8 | 322 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 544 | 509 | 98 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 140 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 193 | 236 | 314 | 550 | 122 | 243 | 26 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 544 | 498 | 118 | 28 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 118 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 294 | 396 | 689 | 159 | 285 | 22 | 6 | 303 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 490 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 124 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 208 | 261 | 304 | 565 | 96 | 260 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 477 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 105 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 239 | 309 | 363 | 671 | 124 | 283 | 20 | 8 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 497 | 108 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 126 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 217 | 288 | 324 | 611 | 107 | 271 | 23 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 553 | 476 | 127 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 61 | 104 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 267 | 361 | 393 | 754 | 126 | 318 | 19 | 11 | 338 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 366 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 221 | 303 | 347 | 650 | 126 | 252 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 351 | 88 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 66 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 357 | 416 | 773 | 165 | 270 | 16 | 12 | 342 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 147 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 288 | 293 | 581 | 95 | 237 | 25 | 6 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 544 | 510 | 98 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 140 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 192 | 236 | 314 | 550 | 122 | 239 | 26 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 488 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 124 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 209 | 261 | 305 | 566 | 96 | 258 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 499 | 108 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 126 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 216 | 288 | 323 | 610 | 106 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 372 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 218 | 303 | 341 | 645 | 124 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 488 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 124 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 209 | 261 | 305 | 566 | 96 | 258 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 499 | 108 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 126 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 216 | 288 | 323 | 610 | 106 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 418 | 372 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 218 | 303 | 341 | 645 | 124 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 10% | 380 | 343 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 81 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 229 | 298 | 346 | 645 | 118 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 296 | 339 | 635 | 113 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 287 | 83 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 31% | 225 | 203 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 48 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 228 | 299 | 347 | 645 | 118 | 277 | 21 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 42% | 253 | 228 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 55 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 298 | 345 | 642 | 118 | 276 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | KC | 46% | 263 | 237 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 226 | 296 | 342 | 637 | 116 | 276 | 22 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 48% | 269 | 243 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 293 | 337 | 630 | 113 | 275 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 31% | 70 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 296 | 339 | 635 | 114 | 275 | 21 | 7 | 287 | 83 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 42% | 106 | 95 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 295 | 338 | 633 | 113 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 286 | 82 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | KC | 46% | 121 | 109 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 293 | 334 | 628 | 111 | 274 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 48% | 130 | 117 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 291 | 330 | 621 | 109 | 272 | 22 | 8 | 281 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 427 | 385 | 86 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 94 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 223 | 295 | 327 | 622 | 104 | 275 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 69 | -10 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +9 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 131 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 143 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 224 | 296 | 329 | 625 | 106 | 275 | 22 | 8 | 284 | 69 | -15 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3374 | 3058 | 656 | 144 | 12 | 59 | 222 | 764 | 57 | 108 | 34 | 215 | 280 | 327 | 608 | 113 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -26 | +3 | -4 | +4 | +25 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 147 | 11 | 21 | 7 | 214 | 280 | 324 | 604 | 110 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 418 PAwOBA .339 → .290 (−49)K% 15.8% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .339 → .290; ISO .165 → .132; BABIP .270 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 469 PAwOBA .328 → .271 (−57)K% 18.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.55% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.63% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.78% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 7.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.51% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .271; ISO .133 → .108; BABIP .310 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 425 PAwOBA .294 → .248 (−46)K% 20.5% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.29% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.40% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .294 → .248; ISO .122 → .099; BABIP .285 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 103 PAwOBA .300 → .268 (−32)K% 17.5% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.48% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.55% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.050 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.18% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .300 → .268; ISO .132 → .117; BABIP .274 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 345 PAwOBA .283 → .230 (−53)K% 20.3% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.29% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.64% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.32% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 15.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.83% | ÷1.016 | ×0.850 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 2.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.62% | ÷0.817 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 99, 2B 123, 3B 103, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .283 → .230; ISO .142 → .113; BABIP .275 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 123 PAwOBA .320 → .263 (−57)K% 21.1% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.14% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.54% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.042 | 17.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.042 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.987 | ×1.042 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .320 → .263; ISO .195 → .156; BABIP .277 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 148 PAwOBA .338 → .270 (−68)K% 15.5% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.54% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.55% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 19.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .270; ISO .128 → .099; BABIP .294 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 18 PAwOBA .176 → .116 (−60)K% 33.3% → 48.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.942 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 16.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 108, K 96, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .176 → .116; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .