Jansel Luis — OGILVIE

Jansel Luis2B Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION338 act + 225 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .269 / .355

PA225

HR5

SB10

K%28

BB%4

BABIP298

ISO128

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE34

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$9M	+$6M
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$20M		$46M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	177	45	4	1	1	9	35	5	9	3	254	309	305	614	51	308	18	5	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	263	243	48	9	3	6	12	67	7	16	4	198	256	333	589	136	246	25	5	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	263	238	64	12	4	7	17	51	7	16	4	269	336	441	777	172	315	19	6	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	482	106	25	8	5	29	143	11	20	10	220	280	336	616	116	302	27	6	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	567	530	137	24	6	5	19	127	3	32	10	258	288	355	643	96	322	22	3	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	567	510	150	24	8	5	39	94	3	32	10	294	348	402	750	108	343	17	7	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	ARI	—	338	313	75	11	3	11	13	110	5	20	3	240	281	399	680	160	328	33	4	291	81	-7	+3	+0	+1	+10	0.6
YTD	21	AA	ARI	—	338	307	83	13	3	13	19	85	5	20	3	270	323	459	783	189	330	25	6	338	117	+7	+3	+0	+1	+10	2.1
ROS	21	AA	ARI	2%	225	211	48	8	2	5	9	63	3	10	2	227	269	355	624	128	300	28	4	280	73	-7	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	ARI	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		303	20	0	274	68	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	AA	ARI	—	343	318	76	11	3	11	13	111	5	20	3	239	280	396	676	157	327	32	4	291	81	-7	+3	-0	+1	+10	0.6
TOT	21	AA	ARI	—	563	524	123	19	5	16	22	173	8	30	5	235	276	381	657	147	315	31	4	287	78	-14	+4	-0	+2	+16	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	ARI	35%	577	540	127	22	5	14	25	156	7	20	4	235	278	372	650	137	301	27	4	288	78	-14	+2	-1	+2	+16	0.6
2028	23	MLB	ARI	49%	593	552	132	23	5	16	29	156	7	20	4	239	286	386	672	147	301	26	5	297	85	-10	+2	-1	+2	+17	1.1
2029	24	MLB	ARI	53%	605	562	136	24	5	17	31	156	7	20	4	242	290	393	683	151	302	26	5	302	89	-7	+2	-1	+2	+17	1.4
2030	25	MLB	ARI	55%	621	576	139	24	5	18	33	159	7	20	4	241	291	394	685	153	302	26	5	305	92	-6	+2	-1	+2	+18	1.6
2031	26	MLB	ARI	56%	628	582	141	24	5	19	34	160	7	20	4	242	292	399	691	156	301	25	5	306	92	-5	+2	-1	+2	+18	1.7
2032	27	MLB	ARI	55%	628	581	141	24	5	19	35	161	7	20	4	243	294	399	693	157	301	26	6	306	92	-5	+2	-1	+2	+18	1.7
2033	28	MLB	ARI	55%	623	576	139	24	5	18	35	160	7	18	4	241	293	394	687	153	301	26	6	305	92	-6	+2	-1	+2	+18	1.5
2034	29	MLB	ARI	53%	613	566	136	23	5	18	35	159	7	16	4	240	293	394	687	154	300	26	6	303	90	-7	+2	-2	+2	+17	1.3
2035	30	MLB	ARI	53%	603	557	133	23	5	17	34	158	7	14	3	239	291	390	681	151	299	26	6	300	88	-8	+2	-3	+2	+17	1.0
2036	31	MLB	ARI	52%	589	543	128	22	5	16	34	156	7	12	3	236	289	383	672	147	296	26	6	296	85	-10	+1	-3	+2	+17	0.7
2037	32	MLB	ARI	52%	570	527	121	20	4	15	32	153	6	10	2	230	281	368	650	139	293	27	6	291	81	-13	+1	-4	+2	+16	0.3
2038	33	MLB	ARI	56%	540	499	113	18	4	14	30	148	6	8	2	226	279	363	641	136	289	27	6	284	75	-15	+1	-5	+2	+15	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	ARI	35%	203	190	45	8	2	5	9	55	2	7	2	237	279	379	658	142	304	27	4	282	74	-6	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.1
2028	23	MLB	ARI	49%	289	270	65	11	3	8	14	76	3	10	2	241	286	393	678	152	304	26	5	291	81	-6	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.4
2029	24	MLB	ARI	53%	320	296	73	13	3	9	17	83	4	11	2	247	297	402	699	155	304	26	5	296	85	-5	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.6
2030	25	MLB	ARI	55%	340	315	78	14	3	10	18	87	4	11	2	248	297	406	703	159	304	26	5	299	87	-5	+1	-0	+1	+10	0.7
2031	26	MLB	ARI	56%	350	324	80	14	3	11	19	89	4	11	2	247	297	410	707	164	304	25	5	300	88	-5	+1	-0	+1	+10	0.8
2032	27	MLB	ARI	55%	346	320	78	14	3	10	19	89	4	11	2	244	294	400	694	156	304	26	5	300	88	-5	+1	-0	+1	+10	0.8
2033	28	MLB	ARI	55%	341	315	76	13	3	10	19	88	4	10	2	241	293	397	690	156	303	26	6	299	87	-5	+1	-1	+1	+10	0.7
2034	29	MLB	ARI	53%	327	301	74	13	3	10	19	85	4	9	2	246	299	409	708	163	302	26	6	297	86	-5	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.5
2035	30	MLB	ARI	53%	317	292	71	12	3	9	18	83	4	8	2	243	296	397	693	154	301	26	6	295	84	-6	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.4
2036	31	MLB	ARI	52%	307	284	68	12	2	9	17	81	3	6	1	239	289	391	680	151	299	26	6	291	81	-7	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.2
2037	32	MLB	ARI	52%	295	273	64	11	2	8	17	79	3	5	1	234	287	377	664	143	295	27	6	285	76	-8	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.0
2038	33	MLB	ARI	56%	302	279	63	10	2	8	17	83	3	4	1	226	278	362	640	136	291	27	6	278	71	-10	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3742	3464	836	145	32	107	203	979	42	103	21	241	291	394	686	153	304	26	5	293	83	-73	+12	-12	+13	+106	4.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	146	25	6	19	35	170	7	18	4	243	292	399	691	156	305	26	5	293	83	-13	+2	-2	+2	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	8961	8304	1970	341	78	223	465	2317	111	285	71	237	287	378	664	140	300	26	5	293	82	-178	+29	-22	+32	+254	11.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	143	25	6	16	34	168	8	21	5	238	287	379	666	141	301	26	5	293	82	-13	+2	-2	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	139	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2023	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	155	144	37	5	3	4	8	35	3	7	2	257	310	417	726	160	314	23	5	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2023	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	108	94	27	7	1	3	9	16	4	9	2	287	374	479	853	191	316	15	8	375	145	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	115	+9	+0	—	—	+15	2.4
2025	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	447	405	123	19	7	5	27	73	2	22	7	304	350	422	772	119	349	16	6	335	114	+7	+2	—	—	+13	2.2
2025	20	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	16	16	8	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	500	500	750	1.250	250	533	6	0	544	275	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2025	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	104	89	19	3	0	0	12	20	1	8	3	213	314	247	561	34	271	19	12	264	60	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,743	105	103	239	287	389	+13	+6	7.3	6.5
	/162	664	19	18	239	287	389	+2.4	+1.0	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jansel Luis (OGILVIE)	21	32→49	40→48	53→52	34	235/276/381	147	315	16	30	31%	4%	78	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	43	214/270/306	92	286	8	15	27%	7%	59	-1.1	203/268/295	92	290	8	17	31%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	43→47	42→55	53→50	40	213/260/324	111	270	9	16	24%	4%	59	-1.1	216/266/343	127	281	13	9	27%	4%	67	-0.5	226/284/408	182	256	25	3	23%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Ronny Simon 2021 · A	21	46→54	41→50	52→55	46	218/278/329	112	273	6	13	22%	7%	68	-0.5	210/261/359	149	274	18	19	29%	6%	69	-0.4	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
●Luis Rengifo 2018 · A	21	43→53	42→55	53→55	41	213/261/315	102	273	9	21	25%	5%	57	-1.2	234/302/352	118	290	9	18	21%	8%	84	+0.6	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2016 · AA	21	41→51	43→60	55→65	34	206/234/316	110	283	10	18	31%	4%	45	-2.1	227/258/382	155	306	16	33	30%	4%	73	-0.1	254/284/439	186	334	19	49	29%	4%	98	+1.2
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	46→51	44→50	56→60	43	227/276/361	134	289	9	20	24%	6%	75	-0.0	233/268/362	129	287	11	25	22%	4%	72	-0.2	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	44→54	46→45	50	39	219/275/352	134	288	13	16	28%	5%	73	-0.1	229/293/355	126	281	12	15	22%	7%	82	+0.5	229/300/349	120	276	11	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→49	42→50	47→45	45	219/283/320	101	283	10	12	26%	7%	68	-0.5	232/313/374	142	284	14	9	22%	10%	95	+1.4	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Nick Franklin 2012 · AA	21	44→50	46→50	53→50	41	221/269/350	128	285	15	15	28%	6%	69	-0.4	236/295/369	133	302	13	12	25%	8%	85	+0.7	237/304/370	133	299	13	12	24%	8%	87	+0.8
●Danny Santana 2012 · A	21	43→53	40→60	51→55	35	209/247/299	91	297	7	17	31%	4%	46	-2.0	245/279/348	103	317	6	18	24%	4%	72	-0.2	242/287/452	210	303	27	22	29%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Dustin Fowler 2016 · A	21	46→53	42→50	51→55	37	226/252/328	103	290	9	15	26%	3%	56	-1.3	241/266/374	133	297	11	19	22%	3%	74	-0.1	249/273/396	147	300	12	21	21%	3%	78	+0.2
●Willi Castro 2018 · A	21	48→53	42→50	48→55	38	237/267/341	103	294	10	12	23%	3%	66	-0.6	244/286/368	124	314	11	13	25%	4%	81	+0.4	241/326/381	140	307	13	23	24%	8%	100	+1.4
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2011 · A	21	51→59	43→45	51→55	40	251/275/361	110	288	11	17	18%	3%	74	-0.1	254/284/350	96	303	9	15	19%	4%	76	+0.0	270/301/382	112	304	12	11	15%	4%	91	+0.7
✕Eguy Rosario 2021 · A	21	44→52	43→50	49→55	39	217/262/332	115	296	10	12	30%	5%	62	-0.9	225/284/367	142	306	14	20	30%	7%	81	+0.4	219/282/363	144	293	15	21	29%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	46	39→45	53→60	43	222/276/307	85	284	7	21	24%	6%	61	-1.0	213/264/284	71	297	4	10	28%	6%	50	-1.8	203/245/250	47	280	3	7	27%	5%	29	-0.9
✕Jean Batista 2013 · A	21	46	43→55	50→45	36	226/249/345	119	283	10	8	24%	3%	59	-1.1	214/246/328	114	287	9	6	28%	4%	53	-1.5	184/197/321	138	244	10	2	29%	1%	26	-0.7
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2021 · A	20	41→48	42→55	52→55	41	203/255/306	103	257	10	13	25%	5%	53	-1.5	230/269/385	155	293	16	19	27%	4%	79	+0.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
●Peter Bourjos 2008 · A	21	46→56	42→50	54→60	39	223/268/336	113	308	8	16	30%	5%	65	-0.7	240/278/362	122	304	9	27	23%	4%	76	+0.0	249/298/396	147	304	12	28	22%	5%	91	+1.0
✕Oswald Peraza 2021 · A	21	44→52	38→50	52→60	42	214/270/290	76	279	6	17	25%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/375	140	299	17	28	26%	5%	84	+0.6	228/285/371	143	284	18	30	26%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2013 · A	21	50→48	39→60	54→55	39	240/270/324	85	307	6	17	24%	4%	62	-0.9	227/268/370	143	304	14	21	29%	5%	74	-0.1	218/266/399	181	293	20	14	32%	6%	78	+0.1