Jansel Luis

3B Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 22 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#764ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419AARI523.265/.337/.41472074—.228/.287/.349
202520A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs567.294/.348/.40253287—.279/.313/.379
202621AAARI486.270/.317/.444162684—.251/.288/.398
2027PROJMLE22MLBARI4.234/.273/.3600071-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBARI165.239/.280/.37545770.0
2029PROJ47% MLB24MLBARI240.242/.286/.38568820.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Speed94
Z-Con%81
ISO65
Whiff%53
wOBA50
K%46
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 64%
CompsRyan Bliss (age 22) · Kaleb Cowart (age 22) · Christopher Bostick (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†71
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .273 / .360
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%4
BABIP310
ISO122
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.40.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$2M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$4M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$4M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $5M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL D-backs Black — 193174 60711 12235 93 345403414817 69388 126 367 49 — — — — — —
202318 AVisalia Rawhide — 155144 37534 8353 72 257310417726 160314 235 323 61 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL D-backs Black — 10894 27713 9164 92 287374479853 191316 158 375 69 — — — — — —
202419 AVisalia Rawhide — 523471 12529107 4010911 2010 265337414751 149332 218 335 74 — — — — — —
202520 A+Hillsboro Hops — 447405 1231975 27732 227 304350422772 119349 166 335 90 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL D-backs — 1616 8210 010 20 5005007501.250 250533 60 544 155 — — — — — —
202520 INTLSalt River Rafters — 10489 19300 12201 83 213314247561 34271 1912 264 65 — — — — — —
202621 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486448 12120516 241227 264 270317444762 174335 255 332 84 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL D-backs Black — 193177 40411 9295 93 226283277560 51254 155 241 49 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 155146 31433 6473 72 212258342601 130289 304 259 61 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL D-backs Black — 10897 20512 6224 92 206280340621 134238 206 270 69 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 523482 1102595 2914711 2010 228287349636 120317 286 277 74 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 447413 1141854 19982 227 276311373684 97332 224 301 90 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 1616 6110 020 20 375375562938 188416 120 397 155 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486455 11418513 171497 264 251288398686 147331 313 292 84 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL D-backs Black — 193177 40411 9295 93 226283277560 51262 155 241 49 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL D-backs Black — 193174 60711 12235 93 345403414817 69388 126 367 49 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE2 teams — 263243 51945 12697 164 210267342609 132271 265 264 64 — — — — — —
202318 A RAW2 teams — 263238 641247 17517 164 269336441777 172315 196 344 64 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 523482 1102595 2914711 2010 228287349636 120318 286 277 74 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWVisalia Rawhide — 523471 12529107 4010911 2010 265337414751 149332 218 335 74 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE3 teams — 567525 1482475 241223 3210 282317383700 101349 224 304 92 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAW3 teams — 567510 1502485 39943 3210 294348402750 108343 177 328 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486455 11418513 171497 264 251288398686 147341 313 292 84 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAWAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486448 12120516 241227 264 270317444762 174335 255 332 84 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL D-backs Black — 193177 40411 9295 93 226283277560 51254 155 241 49 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE2 teams — 263242 51945 12697 164 211267343610 132268 265 264 64 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 523478 1102595 2914711 2010 230287351639 121317 286 277 74 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE3 teams — 567535 1482475 241223 3210 277317376693 99335 224 304 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486459 11418513 171497 264 248288394682 146331 313 292 84 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 523478 1102595 2914711 2010 230287351639 121317 286 277 74 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE3 teams — 567535 1482475 241223 3210 277317376693 99335 224 304 92 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 486459 11418513 171497 264 248288394682 146331 313 292 84 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEARI 2% 596561 12822512 241676 204 227267347614 120299 284 273 71 -21 +2 -1 +2 +13 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXARI 2% 44 1000 010 00 234273360634 126310 250 280 71 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEARI 35% 470441 10217411 211285 153 232274363637 131299 274 282 77 -13 +2 -0 +2 +10 0.1
202924 MLB MLEARI 47% 515481 11419513 241385 174 235279373653 138300 275 289 82 -11 +2 +0 +2 +11 0.4
203025 MLB MLEARI 52% 542504 12020514 271446 174 237283379661 142300 275 293 84 -10 +2 +1 +2 +12 0.6
203126 MLB MLEARI 54% 556516 12321515 291466 174 237285380665 143299 265 294 85 -10 +2 +1 +2 +12 0.7
203227 MLB MLEARI 54% 560519 12421515 301476 174 236286379665 143298 265 294 85 -10 +2 +1 +2 +12 0.7
203328 MLB MLEARI 54% 555515 12121414 301475 153 235284375658 140297 265 292 83 -11 +2 +0 +2 +12 0.5
203429 MLB MLEARI 53% 543504 11720413 291455 123 232281368649 136296 275 288 81 -12 +1 -1 +2 +12 0.2
203530 MLB MLEARI 52% 531493 11319413 281445 93 229277361638 132294 275 283 78 -14 +1 -1 +2 +12 -0.1
202823 MLB CTXARI 35% 165155 38724 7452 51 239280375656 137310 274 290 77 -4 +1 -0 +1 +4 0.0
202924 MLB CTXARI 47% 240225 551036 11642 82 242286385671 143311 275 296 82 -5 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.2
203025 MLB CTXARI 52% 281262 641237 14743 92 243289390679 147311 265 300 84 -5 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.3
203126 MLB CTXARI 54% 302280 691338 16793 92 243291392682 148310 265 301 85 -5 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.4
203227 MLB CTXARI 54% 304282 691338 16803 92 243292390682 147309 265 301 85 -5 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.4
203328 MLB CTXARI 54% 301279 671337 16803 82 241289385675 145308 275 298 83 -6 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.3
203429 MLB CTXARI 53% 288268 641237 15773 62 238286379666 141306 275 295 81 -7 +0 -0 +1 +6 0.1
203530 MLB CTXARI 52% 278258 611136 15753 51 235283371654 136304 275 290 78 -7 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21592009 487912353 11057422 5914 242289390679 147312 275 297 80 -45 +6 +1 +8 +47 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650605 14627716 331737 184 241288388677 147310 275 297 80 -14 +2 +0 +2 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 65146052 144224664141 318171478 22961 238285370655 132307 265 287 80 -98 +13 +1 +16 +97 3.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650604 14425614 321718 236 238286369655 131307 265 287 80 -14 +2 +0 +2 +14 0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 486 PAwOBA .325 → .292 (−33)K% 25.1% → 30.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.10%÷1.000×1.220——30.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.94%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0503.63%
HBP% /PA1.44%—×0.870—×1.0501.32%
Singles /BIP24.54%÷1.000×0.920×1.047×1.05024.81%
Doubles /BIP6.13%÷1.000×0.840×1.047×1.0505.66%
Triples /BIP1.53%÷1.000×0.940×1.047×1.0501.58%
Home runs /BIP4.91%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0504.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .325 → .292; ISO .174 → .148; BABIP .335 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 447 PAwOBA .334 → .301 (−33)K% 16.3% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.33%÷1.002×1.350——22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.04%÷1.044×0.710—×1.0424.28%
HBP% /PA0.45%—×0.810—×1.0420.38%
Singles /BIP27.71%÷1.012×0.910×1.026×1.04226.64%
Doubles /BIP5.72%÷0.908×0.830×1.026×1.0425.60%
Triples /BIP2.11%÷1.150×0.820×1.026×1.0421.61%
Home runs /BIP1.51%÷0.968×0.830—×1.0421.35%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .334 → .301; ISO .119 → .104; BABIP .349 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 16 PAwOBA .529 → .397 (−132)K% 6.2% → 9.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.25%÷0.952×1.440——9.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.942×0.620—×0.9950.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.030×0.820—×0.99526.41%
Doubles /BIP13.33%÷0.945×0.720—×0.99510.11%
Triples /BIP6.67%÷0.939×0.720—×0.9955.09%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.862×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .529 → .397; ISO .250 → .184; BABIP .533 → .416. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 523 PAwOBA .326 → .277 (−49)K% 20.8% → 28.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.84%÷1.009×1.360——28.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.46%÷0.980×0.690—×1.0455.49%
HBP% /PA2.10%—×0.780—×1.0451.71%
Singles /BIP21.82%÷1.010×0.920×1.017×1.04521.12%
Doubles /BIP8.01%÷0.964×0.830×1.017×1.0457.33%
Triples /BIP2.76%÷0.965×0.910×1.017×1.0452.77%
Home runs /BIP1.93%÷1.102×0.800—×1.0451.47%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 93, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .326 → .277; ISO .149 → .124; BABIP .332 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 155 PAwOBA .314 → .259 (−55)K% 22.6% → 30.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.58%÷1.019×1.360——30.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.16%÷0.987×0.690—×1.0503.79%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.780—×1.0501.59%
Singles /BIP22.94%÷1.060×0.920×1.011×1.05021.13%
Doubles /BIP4.59%÷1.029×0.830×1.011×1.0503.93%
Triples /BIP2.75%÷0.900×0.910×1.011×1.0502.95%
Home runs /BIP3.67%÷1.003×0.800—×1.0503.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .314 → .259; ISO .160 → .132; BABIP .314 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 108 PAwOBA .369 → .270 (−99)K% 14.8% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.81%÷1.030×1.440——20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.001×0.620—×1.0225.28%
HBP% /PA3.70%—×0.720—×1.0222.73%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.073×0.820×0.982×1.02215.74%
Doubles /BIP8.97%÷0.966×0.720×0.982×1.0226.72%
Triples /BIP1.28%÷0.950×0.720×0.982×1.0220.98%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.038×0.780—×1.0222.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .369 → .270; ISO .191 → .144; BABIP .316 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL D-backs Black · 193 PAwOBA .362 → .241 (−121)K% 11.9% → 14.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.92%÷0.978×1.220——14.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.22%÷0.927×0.700—×1.0224.80%
HBP% /PA2.59%—×0.700—×1.0221.85%
Singles /BIP33.77%÷1.014×0.680×0.983×1.02222.77%
Doubles /BIP4.64%÷1.104×0.600×0.983×1.0222.53%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷1.150×0.600×0.983×1.0220.35%
Home runs /BIP0.66%÷0.896×0.470—×1.0220.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 96, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .362 → .241; ISO .069 → .037; BABIP .388 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .