Jansel Luis — OGILVIE

Jansel Luis3B Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION486 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%4

BABIP316

ISO112

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE34

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	135	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2023	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	155	144	37	5	3	4	8	35	3	7	2	257	310	417	726	160	314	23	5	323	104	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	108	94	27	7	1	3	9	16	4	9	2	287	374	479	853	191	316	15	8	375	140	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2024	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	113	+8	+0	—	—	+11	2.0
2025	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	447	405	123	19	7	5	27	73	2	22	7	304	350	422	772	119	349	16	6	335	113	+7	+2	—	—	+10	1.8
2025	20	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	16	16	8	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	500	500	750	1.250	250	533	6	0	544	254	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2025	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	104	89	19	3	0	0	12	20	1	8	3	213	314	247	561	34	271	19	12	264	65	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	178	46	4	1	1	8	34	5	9	3	258	309	309	618	51	300	18	4	268	68	-7	+1	—	—	+4	-0.3
2023	18	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	155	146	29	4	2	3	6	46	3	7	2	199	245	315	560	116	269	30	4	248	54	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	108	97	20	5	1	2	6	22	4	9	2	206	280	340	621	134	233	20	6	265	65	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	483	106	24	8	6	28	145	11	20	10	219	278	340	617	120	296	28	5	265	65	-21	+0	—	—	+11	-1.0
2025	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	447	416	105	16	5	4	16	102	2	22	7	252	283	344	627	91	303	23	4	273	71	-15	+2	—	—	+10	-0.4
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	16	16	6	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	375	375	562	938	188	418	12	0	399	156	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	178	46	4	1	1	8	34	5	9	3	258	309	309	618	51	310	18	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	263	244	50	9	3	6	11	68	7	16	4	205	260	340	600	135	257	26	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	263	238	64	12	4	7	17	51	7	16	4	269	336	441	777	172	315	19	6	344	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	483	106	24	8	6	28	145	11	20	10	219	278	340	617	120	301	28	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	529	137	22	7	5	20	127	3	32	10	259	290	355	645	96	323	22	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	567	510	150	24	8	5	39	94	3	32	10	294	348	402	750	108	343	17	7	328	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	178	46	4	1	1	8	34	5	9	3	258	309	309	618	51	300	18	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	263	243	50	9	3	6	11	68	7	16	4	206	260	342	601	136	254	26	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	479	106	24	8	6	28	145	11	20	10	221	278	342	620	121	296	28	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	539	137	22	7	5	20	127	3	32	10	254	290	349	639	95	307	22	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	263	243	50	9	3	6	11	68	7	16	4	206	260	342	601	136	254	26	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	479	106	24	8	6	28	145	11	20	10	221	278	342	620	121	296	28	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	539	137	22	7	5	20	127	3	32	10	254	290	349	639	95	307	22	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	ARI	—	486	455	111	18	5	12	17	149	7	26	4	244	282	385	666	141	333	31	3	281	76	-14	+4	+0	+2	+11	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA RAW	ARI	—	486	448	121	20	5	16	24	122	7	26	4	270	317	444	762	174	335	25	5	332	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	AA MLE	ARI	2%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		309	22	0	281	76	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	AA MLE	ARI	—	495	464	112	18	5	12	17	151	7	26	4	241	279	379	658	138	329	31	3	281	76	-14	+4	-0	+2	+11	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	35%	532	499	118	20	5	12	22	144	6	19	4	236	277	369	646	132	305	27	4	286	80	-13	+2	-0	+2	+12	0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	49%	576	538	130	22	5	15	26	151	7	20	4	242	285	385	670	143	305	26	5	296	86	-9	+2	-0	+2	+12	0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	605	563	138	23	6	17	30	155	7	21	4	245	292	398	690	153	305	26	5	302	90	-7	+3	-0	+2	+13	1.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	621	577	142	24	6	18	32	158	7	21	4	246	294	402	696	156	305	25	5	305	92	-6	+3	-0	+2	+13	1.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	628	584	143	24	6	18	32	160	7	21	4	245	292	399	691	154	305	25	5	306	93	-5	+3	-0	+2	+14	1.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	628	583	143	24	6	18	33	160	7	21	4	245	294	400	693	154	305	25	5	306	93	-5	+3	-0	+2	+14	1.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	623	578	141	24	5	18	33	160	7	20	4	244	293	396	689	152	304	26	5	305	92	-6	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	613	568	137	23	5	17	33	158	7	18	4	241	291	389	680	148	303	26	5	303	91	-7	+2	-2	+2	+13	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	603	558	134	23	5	16	33	157	7	16	3	240	291	385	676	145	302	26	5	300	89	-8	+2	-2	+2	+13	0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	589	545	130	22	5	16	32	155	7	14	3	239	289	385	675	147	300	26	5	296	86	-10	+2	-3	+2	+13	0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	570	528	124	20	5	15	31	153	6	11	2	235	285	377	662	142	297	27	5	290	82	-12	+1	-4	+2	+12	0.0
2038	33	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	540	500	114	18	4	13	29	147	6	8	2	228	279	358	637	130	292	27	5	283	78	-14	+1	-4	+2	+12	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	35%	187	175	43	8	2	4	8	51	2	7	1	246	286	383	669	137	312	27	4	281	80	-5	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	49%	281	263	65	12	3	7	13	74	3	10	2	247	290	395	686	148	312	26	5	291	86	-5	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	320	297	73	13	3	8	16	82	4	11	2	246	293	391	684	145	312	26	5	296	90	-4	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	340	316	79	14	4	9	17	86	4	12	2	250	297	405	702	155	312	25	5	299	92	-3	+2	-0	+1	+7	0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	350	325	81	15	4	9	18	89	4	12	2	249	297	403	700	154	311	25	5	300	93	-3	+2	-0	+1	+8	0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	346	321	80	14	4	9	18	88	4	12	2	249	297	402	699	153	311	25	5	300	93	-3	+2	-0	+1	+7	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	341	316	78	14	3	9	18	87	4	11	2	247	296	396	691	149	311	26	5	299	92	-3	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	327	302	74	13	3	9	18	84	4	10	2	245	296	397	694	152	310	26	6	297	91	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	317	293	72	13	3	8	17	83	4	8	2	246	296	392	689	147	309	26	5	294	89	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	307	284	69	12	3	8	17	81	3	7	1	243	293	391	684	148	306	26	6	290	86	-5	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	295	274	65	11	3	7	16	79	3	6	1	237	287	376	663	139	303	27	5	285	82	-6	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	302	280	65	11	3	7	16	82	3	5	1	232	281	368	649	136	299	27	5	278	78	-8	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3713	3446	844	150	38	94	192	966	42	111	20	245	293	392	685	147	312	26	5	293	84	-52	+14	-10	+13	+80	4.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	147	26	7	16	34	169	7	19	4	244	292	390	682	146	310	26	5	293	84	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8683	8064	1934	326	82	211	433	2234	107	287	69	240	288	379	667	139	304	26	5	293	84	-102	+25	-18	+25	+155	8.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	144	24	6	16	32	167	8	21	5	238	286	377	663	139	301	26	5	293	84	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	6.7	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
/162	664	17	32	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	6.6	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
/162	664	17	16	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	5.6	3,719	100	109	242	286	388	+13	+6	7.6	6.8
/162	664	18	20	+2.4	+1.0	1.4	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jansel Luis (OGILVIE)	21	32→49	40→48	53→52	34	233/271/357	124	309	6	14	28%	4%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	45→53	46→45	50	39	223/279/354	131	293	13	16	28%	5%	78	-0.3	228/292/347	119	279	11	15	21%	7%	81	-0.1	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Luis Rengifo 2018 · A	21	44→54	42→55	53→55	42	214/262/319	105	273	9	21	25%	5%	63	-1.3	234/303/352	118	291	9	18	21%	8%	86	+0.3	271/321/427	157	304	18	16	17%	6%	109	+1.5
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2016 · AA	21	40→50	41→60	55→65	34	201/231/303	102	281	9	18	32%	4%	47	-2.5	224/256/371	147	305	15	33	31%	4%	73	-0.6	254/287/434	180	335	19	58	29%	4%	98	+0.7
●Ronny Simon 2021 · A	21	46→56	41→50	52→60	46	218/278/329	112	273	6	13	22%	7%	72	-0.7	210/262/355	145	274	16	19	29%	6%	72	-0.7	266/329/370	104	332	7	30	21%	8%	98	+0.9
✕Roman Quinn 2014 · A	21	43→53	42→45	56→65	41	213/270/315	102	287	10	26	29%	6%	65	-1.2	239/297/338	99	321	8	33	26%	7%	80	-0.1	245/301/378	133	333	11	48	28%	7%	89	+0.2
✕Nick Franklin 2012 · AA	21	45→49	46→50	53→50	42	226/275/354	128	291	14	15	27%	6%	76	-0.4	233/294/362	129	300	12	12	25%	8%	85	+0.2	231/299/358	127	295	12	12	25%	8%	84	+0.2
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	44	213/273/305	91	288	7	15	28%	7%	64	-1.3	202/271/287	85	292	7	17	31%	8%	59	-1.6	226/309/352	126	299	12	25	27%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	44→46	43→55	53→50	40	217/263/333	116	270	11	16	24%	5%	67	-1.1	216/266/341	125	279	12	9	27%	5%	70	-0.8	223/280/397	174	256	23	3	23%	6%	88	+0.3
●Danny Santana 2013 · A	22	46→56	41→55	49→55	38	222/259/321	99	289	8	14	26%	4%	61	-1.5	263/294/368	105	336	5	20	22%	4%	85	+0.2	240/285/441	201	301	25	22	29%	5%	97	+0.7
✕Alen Hanson 2014 · AA	21	48→52	44→50	56→60	43	233/281/368	135	296	9	20	24%	6%	81	-0.1	235/271/353	118	291	9	25	22%	5%	74	-0.6	246/282/378	132	296	11	30	20%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Willi Castro 2018 · A	21	48→53	42→50	48→55	37	233/263/334	101	292	9	12	24%	3%	66	-1.1	241/283/357	116	313	10	13	25%	4%	80	-0.2	241/327/383	141	308	13	23	24%	8%	101	+1.1
✕Jorge Barrosa 2022 · A	21	46→49	41→45	52→55	41	221/276/320	98	289	8	21	26%	5%	69	-0.9	224/291/342	118	277	10	18	22%	8%	80	-0.2	219/291/339	121	266	11	18	21%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	47→45	46	221/286/323	102	285	10	12	26%	8%	74	-0.6	228/311/363	135	276	12	9	21%	10%	93	+0.8	222/308/359	137	264	13	9	20%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Henry Ramos 2013 · A	21	45→55	41→50	46→50	39	218/260/315	97	295	8	11	28%	5%	61	-1.5	224/269/331	107	296	9	8	26%	6%	68	-1.0	252/313/388	135	315	15	7	24%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Angel Martínez 2023 · AA	21	44→47	45→50	48→50	47	218/285/345	126	278	11	11	25%	8%	78	-0.3	223/280/346	123	279	12	10	24%	6%	76	-0.4	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2021 · A	20	41→51	42→55	52→55	41	203/255/306	103	257	10	13	25%	5%	58	-1.7	228/267/375	147	291	14	19	26%	4%	78	-0.3	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2011 · A	21	51→61	43→45	51→55	40	250/274/359	109	288	10	17	18%	3%	76	-0.4	254/285/350	96	301	8	15	18%	4%	78	-0.3	269/301/365	97	307	10	11	16%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2013 · A	21	50→49	39→55	54→55	39	239/270/328	89	309	6	17	24%	4%	68	-1.0	227/269/365	138	304	13	21	28%	5%	76	-0.4	212/259/369	157	293	16	14	32%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2021 · A	21	44→52	42→55	49→55	39	214/259/321	107	292	9	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	228/287/365	137	303	13	20	28%	7%	84	+0.1	224/286/367	142	294	14	21	28%	7%	82	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps