BJ Murray — OGILVIE

BJ Murray3B Iowa Cubs

Age 26 S/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA BB +5%HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2026

wRC+†117

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .298 / .363

PA250

HR8

SB7

K%28

BB%10

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45↗50

PWR

40→40

SPD

45→45

FLD

50→50

EYE

57↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$1M	-$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$43M	+$35M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	61	59	11	2	1	1	2	21	0	2	0	.186	.213	.305	.518	.119	.270	34	3	.248	48	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2022	22	A+	3 teams	405	353	86	17	1	7	44	108	6	8	4	.244	.337	.357	.694	.113	.329	27	11	.309	95	-2	+0	+0	+1	+11	1.1
2023	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	542	482	103	28	3	14	52	166	6	14	3	.214	.298	.371	.670	.158	.293	31	10	.294	83	-10	+2	+0	+2	+15	0.9
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	418	373	63	10	0	8	41	122	2	14	1	.169	.255	.260	.515	.091	.224	29	10	.236	38	-29	+2	+0	+1	+12	-1.4
2025	25	AA	Knoxville Smokies	537	469	101	18	0	21	57	135	5	20	8	.215	.307	.388	.695	.173	.251	25	11	.304	91	-6	+1	+0	+2	+15	1.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	82	74	23	4	1	3	8	18	0	3	1	.311	.378	.514	.892	.203	.377	22	10	.390	157	+5	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.8
ROS	26	MLB	CHC	168	148	35	7	1	5	17	45	1	4	1	.236	.319	.399	.718	.162	.291	27	10	.314	98	-0	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.6
TOT	26	MLB	CHC	250	222	58	11	2	8	25	63	1	7	2	.261	.339	.437	.776	.176	.329	25	10	.339	117	+5	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 25%	CHC	336	296	70	14	1	11	35	77	2	9	2	.236	.321	.402	.723	.166	.282	23	10	.324	106	+2	+1	+0	+1	+10	1.4
2028	28	MLB 37%	CHC	364	321	76	15	1	12	38	84	2	9	2	.237	.321	.402	.723	.165	.282	23	10	.323	105	+2	+1	-1	+1	+10	1.4
2029	29	MLB 47%	CHC	373	328	77	15	1	12	39	87	3	8	2	.235	.322	.396	.718	.162	.282	23	10	.321	104	+2	+1	-1	+1	+11	1.3
2030	30	MLB 55%	CHC	378	333	77	15	1	12	39	90	3	8	2	.231	.317	.390	.708	.159	.281	24	10	.318	101	+1	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.2
2031	31	MLB 66%	CHC	369	326	75	15	1	11	38	89	2	6	1	.230	.314	.383	.698	.153	.279	24	10	.314	99	-1	+1	-3	+1	+10	0.9
2032	32	MLB 75%	CHC	354	312	70	14	1	10	37	87	2	4	1	.224	.311	.372	.682	.147	.278	25	10	.309	95	-2	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.6
2033	33	MLB 83%	CHC	326	287	63	12	1	9	34	82	2	3	0	.220	.307	.362	.669	.143	.276	25	10	.304	91	-3	+1	-4	+1	+9	0.3
2034	34	MLB 89%	CHC	284	251	55	10	1	8	29	74	2	1	0	.219	.305	.363	.668	.143	.274	26	10	.297	86	-5	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.0
2035	35	MLB 95%	CHC	233	206	44	8	1	6	24	63	1	1	0	.214	.299	.350	.648	.136	.272	27	10	.289	79	-5	+0	-6	+1	+7	-0.3
2036	36	MLB	CHC	177	156	32	6	1	4	18	50	1	0	0	.205	.291	.333	.625	.128	.268	28	10	.280	73	-5	+0	-6	+1	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5325	4700	1038	206	16	151	544	1380	40	111	27	.221	.307	.368	.675	.147	.277	26	10	.302	89	-66	+11	-31	+19	+151	8.5
/ 162G	—			650	574	126	25	2	18	66	168	5	14	3	.220	.305	.364	.670	.145	.276	26	10	.302	89	-8	+2	-4	+2	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	61	56	16	3	1	2	5	14	0	2	0	.286	.344	.482	.826	.196	.350	23	8	.363	136	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	224	187	51	8	1	5	36	46	0	8	4	.273	.390	.406	.797	.134	.336	21	16	.361	135	+9	+0	—	—	+6	1.5
2022	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	161	128	39	11	0	3	26	31	6	0	0	.305	.444	.461	.905	.156	.379	19	16	.407	170	+13	+0	—	—	+5	1.8
2022	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	20	19	4	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	.211	.250	.368	.618	.158	.250	30	5	.275	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	542	452	119	34	4	16	82	129	6	14	3	.263	.383	.462	.846	.199	.333	24	15	.376	146	+28	+2	—	—	+15	4.6
2024	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	353	299	61	10	0	11	50	86	2	10	1	.204	.322	.348	.670	.144	.245	24	14	.307	93	-3	+2	—	—	+10	0.9
2024	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	65	58	9	1	0	0	7	14	0	4	0	.155	.246	.172	.419	.017	.205	22	11	.206	16	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	25	AA	Knoxville Smokies	537	443	107	18	0	20	83	103	5	20	8	.242	.367	.418	.785	.176	.267	19	15	.352	127	+16	+1	—	—	+15	3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
BJ Murray (OGILVIE)	26	45→50	40	45	60	.213/.298/.363	.150	.273	8	6	28%	10%	87	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis Rengifo 2022 · MLB	25	45→55	46→50	47→55	48	.227/.289/.357	.130	.269	15	12	22%	7%	80	+0.4	.254/.302/.402	.148	.288	18	13	18%	6%	98	+1.6	.267/.318/.414	.147	.301	17	16	17%	6%	105	+1.6
●Jonathan India 2023 · MLB	26	50→51	49→50	46→50	52	.249/.342/.401	.152	.302	16	9	22%	9%	115	+2.7	.241/.337/.381	.140	.289	15	11	21%	10%	108	+2.3	.234/.336/.364	.130	.280	13	9	20%	11%	99	+1.6
●Robbie Grossman 2017 · MLB	27	50→57	45	45→50	54	.241/.326/.361	.121	.310	12	12	25%	11%	97	+1.5	.250/.346/.375	.125	.306	11	6	20%	13%	109	+2.4	.242/.350/.402	.161	.287	17	17	21%	13%	111	+1.9
✕Max Moroff 2019 · MLB	26	41→51	49→50	47→50	51	.209/.298/.357	.147	.275	17	8	29%	11%	85	+0.7	.216/.296/.371	.155	.289	19	9	30%	9%	88	+0.9	.177/.268/.301	.123	.246	16	6	33%	10%	55	-0.5
✕Danny Muno 2015 · AAA	26	48→51	44→45	47→50	52	.232/.318/.350	.117	.292	12	13	23%	10%	91	+1.1	.224/.301/.323	.099	.295	8	11	25%	9%	77	+0.1	.220/.301/.308	.088	.302	6	11	26%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Drew Sutton 2009 · AA	26	49→54	47→50	49→50	48	.245/.306/.384	.139	.291	14	16	21%	8%	95	+1.4	.243/.314/.376	.133	.309	12	10	24%	8%	95	+1.4	.237/.313/.361	.124	.310	10	5	25%	9%	89	+0.6
●Lane Thomas 2022 · MLB	26	45→51	51→55	48→55	49	.227/.305/.393	.166	.296	18	13	29%	10%	97	+1.5	.246/.309/.418	.172	.307	19	15	25%	8%	105	+2.1	.248/.309/.422	.174	.307	20	21	25%	7%	104	+2.0
✕Ruben Gotay 2009 · MLB	26	49	45	44→50	47	.240/.297/.363	.123	.292	12	9	22%	7%	85	+0.7	.234/.326/.355	.121	.293	11	5	22%	12%	95	+1.4	.226/.319/.333	.107	.281	10	4	21%	11%	84	+0.6
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2004 · MLB	26	45→55	47→40	48→55	50	.227/.294/.364	.137	.264	14	11	20%	8%	84	+0.6	.238/.295/.345	.107	.281	10	20	18%	6%	79	+0.3	.268/.330/.352	.084	.306	3	26	13%	8%	91	+0.6
✕DJ Stewart 2020 · MLB	26	44→48	52→60	47→50	48	.231/.303/.398	.167	.271	20	12	23%	8%	98	+1.6	.223/.320/.400	.177	.277	22	7	27%	11%	105	+2.1	.212/.318/.409	.197	.253	28	2	28%	11%	104	+0.9
✕Cooper Hummel 2022 · AAA	27	46→49	51→50	46→55	53	.231/.325/.395	.164	.291	18	7	26%	11%	106	+2.2	.222/.319/.366	.144	.305	12	15	28%	11%	95	+1.4	.217/.330/.365	.148	.295	13	19	28%	12%	98	+1.1
✕Nick Franklin 2017 · MLB	26	45→49	47→50	51→50	45	.226/.283/.363	.137	.284	15	14	26%	7%	79	+0.3	.219/.283/.348	.129	.272	13	14	23%	7%	76	+0.0	.175/.256/.277	.102	.223	8	9	25%	9%	44	-0.8
●Tyler Nevin 2023 · MLB	26	43→53	47→50	48→45	47	.219/.290/.349	.130	.268	16	5	24%	8%	79	+0.3	.241/.312/.393	.152	.290	18	5	22%	8%	100	+1.7	.245/.319/.406	.161	.290	19	3	22%	8%	104	+1.4
●Felipe Lopez 2005 · MLB	25	47→57	47→55	46→55	49	.232/.306/.375	.143	.306	13	10	27%	9%	92	+1.2	.266/.336/.415	.149	.314	15	19	19%	9%	115	+2.7	.265/.336/.397	.132	.306	13	24	17%	9%	107	+2.5
✕Taylor Walls 2023 · MLB	27	40→50	45	49→60	53	.200/.292/.323	.124	.262	12	15	27%	11%	73	-0.1	.201/.291/.319	.118	.264	10	25	26%	11%	72	-0.2	.198/.286/.304	.106	.259	8	33	25%	11%	64	-0.4
●Mickey Gasper 2022 · AA	26	45→54	46→50	52→45	44	.222/.290/.353	.130	.282	13	7	25%	7%	80	+0.4	.239/.329/.380	.141	.295	14	9	23%	10%	103	+1.9	.242/.338/.383	.141	.283	15	8	19%	10%	105	+1.1
✕Willi Castro 2023 · MLB	26	48→54	47→50	50→55	41	.242/.289/.378	.136	.295	14	13	23%	5%	85	+0.7	.243/.315/.385	.142	.305	13	22	24%	7%	99	+1.7	.240/.326/.383	.143	.305	13	23	24%	8%	98	+1.3
✕Niko Goodrum 2019 · MLB	27	46→52	49→55	50→55	42	.230/.283/.385	.154	.301	17	13	29%	6%	85	+0.7	.228/.297/.386	.158	.312	17	16	30%	9%	92	+1.2	.234/.334/.361	.127	.331	13	14	30%	13%	97	+0.6
●Domonic Brown 2014 · MLB	26	50→55	52→55	47→55	50	.255/.315/.426	.171	.285	20	10	19%	8%	109	+2.4	.237/.287/.367	.130	.277	14	10	20%	6%	82	+0.5	.230/.273/.367	.138	.270	17	2	22%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	50	48	.232/.299/.408	.176	.276	19	14	24%	8%	98	+1.6	.219/.308/.379	.160	.279	18	9	26%	11%	95	+1.4	.202/.307/.353	.150	.259	16	7	27%	13%	84	+0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)