BJ Murray

3B Iowa Cubs
Age 27 S/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#756ETA2028MLB%30%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAA/AA2 orgs418.196/.310/.319111448—.173/.262/.257
202525AACHC537.242/.367/.418202086—.211/.303/.365
202626AAACHC535.298/.405/.504179103—.246/.330/.400
2027PROJ30% MLB27MLBCHC46.236/.321/.38411990.1
2028PROJ42% MLB28MLBCHC186.235/.319/.38153970.4
2029PROJ47% MLB29MLBCHC221.233/.316/.37653950.4
Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV84
BB%79
Chase%78
Speed75
K%61
Whiff%61
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%
CompsCord Phelps (age 27) · Josh Smith (age 26) · Tyler Nevin (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†99
AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .321 / .384
PA46
HR1
K%24
BB%11
BABIP297
ISO122
MLB%30%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-0BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.10.40.40.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
100.069
POWER
Avg EV
1686.5
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 ROKACL Cubs — 6156 16312 5140 20 286344482826 196350 238 363 49 — — — — — —
202222 A+South Bend Cubs — 224187 51815 36460 84 273390406797 134336 2116 361 88 — — — — — —
202222 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 161128 391103 26316 00 305444461905 156379 1916 407 109 — — — — — —
202222 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 2019 4001 160 00 211250368618 158250 305 275 72 — — — — — —
202323 AATennessee Smokies — 542452 11934416 821296 143 263383462846 199333 2415 376 89 — — — — — —
202424 AAAIowa Cubs — 353299 6110011 50862 101 204322348670 144245 2414 307 57 — — — — — —
202424 AATennessee Smokies — 6558 9100 7140 40 155246172419 17205 2211 206 -4 — — — — — —
202525 AAKnoxville Smokies — 537443 10718020 831035 208 242367418785 176267 1915 352 86 — — — — — —
202626 AAAIowa Cubs — 535450 13424917 741137 94 298405504909 207361 2114 399 103 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6158 11211 3200 20 190230310540 121273 335 241 49 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 224197 47714 26580 84 239327345673 107309 2612 299 88 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 161136 35903 18436 00 257369390758 132347 2711 330 109 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 542480 10730412 541566 143 223309377686 154298 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 353311 56907 381032 101 180274277550 96238 2911 252 57 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 6560 8100 5180 40 133200150350 17181 288 162 -4 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 537469 9918018 571265 208 211303365668 154241 2311 295 86 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 535472 11619912 521357 94 246330400730 155314 2510 320 103 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6158 11211 3200 20 190230310540 121270 335 241 49 — — — — — —
202121 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 6156 16312 5140 20 286344482826 196350 238 363 49 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE3 teams — 405351 861717 461076 84 245342359701 114331 2611 312 97 — — — — — —
202222 A+ RAW3 teams — 405334 941919 63836 84 281404425830 144348 2016 375 97 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 542480 10730412 541566 143 223309377686 154303 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
202323 AA RAWTennessee Smokies — 542452 11934416 821296 143 263383462846 199333 2415 376 89 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 418371 631007 431212 141 170260253513 84229 2910 238 47 — — — — — —
202424 AAA RAW2 teams — 418357 7011011 571002 141 196310319629 123238 2414 291 47 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 537469 9918018 571265 208 211303365668 154245 2311 295 86 — — — — — —
202525 AA RAWKnoxville Smokies — 537443 10718020 831035 208 242367418785 176267 1915 352 86 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 535472 11619912 521357 94 246330400730 155316 2510 320 103 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAWIowa Cubs — 535450 13424917 741137 94 298405504909 207361 2114 399 103 — — — — — —
202121 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6158 11211 3200 20 190230310540 121273 335 241 49 — — — — — —
202222 A+ MLE3 teams — 405350 861717 461076 84 246342360702 114325 2611 312 97 — — — — — —
202323 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 542477 10730412 541566 143 224309379689 155298 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 418370 631007 431212 141 170260254514 84229 2910 238 47 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 537470 9918018 571265 208 211303364667 153241 2311 295 86 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 535471 11619912 521357 94 246330401731 155314 2510 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AAA MLE2 teams — 418370 631007 431212 141 170260254514 84229 2910 238 47 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 537470 9918018 571265 208 211303364667 153241 2311 295 86 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 535471 11619912 521357 94 246330401731 155314 2510 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLECHC 30% 380335 7914310 38954 83 234320382701 148294 2510 314 99 -1 +0 -0 +1 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXCHC 30% 4641 9201 5110 10 236321384706 148297 2411 316 99 -0 +0 -0 +0 +1 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLECHC 42% 444393 9016311 441114 83 233318378696 145292 2510 312 97 -1 +0 -1 +2 +10 0.9
202929 MLB MLECHC 47% 468414 9517312 461185 63 231315373688 142291 2510 309 95 -3 +0 -2 +2 +10 0.7
203030 MLB MLECHC 51% 479424 9717312 471215 52 228311367678 138288 2510 305 92 -4 +0 -3 +2 +10 0.5
203131 MLB MLECHC 53% 246218 50926 24632 11 225307358665 134285 2610 299 89 -3 -0 -3 +1 +5 -0.0
202828 MLB CTXCHC 42% 186163 39725 19462 31 235319381700 146296 2510 314 97 -1 +0 -0 +1 +4 0.4
202929 MLB CTXCHC 47% 221195 45825 22562 31 233316376692 143294 2510 310 95 -1 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.4
203030 MLB CTXCHC 51% 243215 50926 24612 21 230313369682 139292 2510 306 92 -2 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.3
203131 MLB CTXCHC 53% 130116 27513 12331 00 226308361669 134289 259 301 89 -2 +0 -2 +0 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 780689 16129719 771967 83 234317379696 145297 2510 308 89 -6 +0 -4 +3 +17 1.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 13424616 641636 72 233316380696 146296 2510 308 89 -5 +0 -4 +2 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 42903786 84616127102 432111744 9030 223310361671 138287 2610 299 89 -12 +1 -9 +6 +39 2.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 12724415 651697 145 221309355664 134284 2610 299 89 -4 +0 -3 +2 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 535 PAwOBA .392 → .320 (−72)K% 21.1% → 25.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.12%÷1.000×1.200——25.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.83%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0189.72%
HBP% /PA1.31%—×0.940—×1.0181.25%
Singles /BIP24.93%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.01822.42%
Doubles /BIP7.12%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0185.72%
Triples /BIP2.67%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0182.51%
Home runs /BIP5.04%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0183.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .392 → .320; ISO .207 → .163; BABIP .361 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 537 PAwOBA .347 → .295 (−52)K% 19.2% → 23.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.18%÷0.994×1.220——23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.46%÷0.988×0.680—×0.99810.62%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.840—×0.9980.78%
Singles /BIP20.29%÷0.996×0.920×0.970×0.99818.14%
Doubles /BIP5.29%÷0.910×0.910×0.970×0.9985.12%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.880×0.970×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP5.88%÷0.911×0.800—×0.9985.16%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .347 → .295; ISO .176 → .162; BABIP .267 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 353 PAwOBA .301 → .252 (−49)K% 24.4% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.36%÷0.998×1.200——29.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.16%÷0.949×0.690—×1.04810.80%
HBP% /PA0.57%—×0.940—×1.0480.56%
Singles /BIP18.78%÷0.994×0.930×1.025×1.04818.88%
Doubles /BIP4.69%÷0.962×0.830×1.025×1.0484.35%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.025×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP5.16%÷1.079×0.700—×1.0483.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .301 → .252; ISO .144 → .104; BABIP .245 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 65 PAwOBA .202 → .162 (−40)K% 21.5% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.54%÷0.975×1.220——26.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷0.959×0.680—×1.0127.73%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷1.015×0.920×0.970×1.01216.19%
Doubles /BIP2.27%÷1.059×0.910×0.970×1.0121.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.985×0.880×0.970×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.854×0.800—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .202 → .162; ISO .017 → .014; BABIP .205 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 542 PAwOBA .368 → .300 (−68)K% 23.8% → 28.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.80%÷1.008×1.220——28.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.13%÷1.059×0.680—×1.0279.97%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.840—×1.0270.95%
Singles /BIP20.12%÷0.975×0.920×0.955×1.02718.62%
Doubles /BIP10.53%÷1.023×0.910×0.955×1.0279.18%
Triples /BIP1.24%÷0.966×0.880×0.955×1.0271.11%
Home runs /BIP4.95%÷1.082×0.800—×1.0273.76%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .368 → .300; ISO .199 → .164; BABIP .333 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 224 PAwOBA .354 → .299 (−55)K% 20.5% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.54%÷1.003×1.270——26.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.07%÷0.986×0.710—×1.01211.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP26.24%÷1.010×0.920×1.030×1.01224.91%
Doubles /BIP5.67%÷1.020×0.810×1.030×1.0124.70%
Triples /BIP0.71%÷1.097×0.850×1.030×1.0120.57%
Home runs /BIP3.55%÷0.938×0.800—×1.0123.06%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .354 → .299; ISO .134 → .112; BABIP .336 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 161 PAwOBA .400 → .330 (−70)K% 19.3% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.25%÷0.978×1.360——26.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.15%÷1.017×0.690——10.96%
HBP% /PA3.73%—×0.780——2.91%
Singles /BIP25.77%÷0.975×0.920×0.996—24.24%
Doubles /BIP11.34%÷0.947×0.830×0.996—9.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.068×0.910×0.996—0.00%
Home runs /BIP3.09%÷0.942×0.800——2.63%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .400 → .330; ISO .156 → .133; BABIP .379 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Cubs · 61 PAwOBA .353 → .241 (−113)K% 23.0% → 33.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.95%÷0.992×1.440——33.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.20%÷1.071×0.620—×0.9854.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷1.002×0.820—×0.98519.20%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.947×0.720—×0.9855.35%
Triples /BIP2.38%÷0.947×0.720—×0.9851.78%
Home runs /BIP4.76%÷1.014×0.780—×0.9853.61%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .241; ISO .196 → .133; BABIP .350 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .