Freddy Hernandez
P
DSL Angels
+0.0
WAR
Age 18
LHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.7 · 2032
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.5%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | 11 | 11 | 44 | 203 | 43 | 23 | 2 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.4% | 3.89 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | LAA | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | LAA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | LAA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | LAA | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 43 | 16 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | LAA | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 51 | 16 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 53 | 16 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 26.2% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 55 | 16 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 53 | 16 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 52 | 15 | 5 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 44 | 203 | 29 | 29 | 3 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.4% | 3.89 | 4.47 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 50 | 200 | 923 | 132 | 132 | 14 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 1.4% | 3.89 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Freddy Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.20 | 23.3% | 14.3% | 124 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.36 | 2.97 | 435 | 93 |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.37 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.52 | 2.29 | 227 | 90 |
| Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.55 | 14.6% | -0.7% | 53 | +0.70 | 3.39 | 118 | 89 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 89 |
| Jay Groome L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.54 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.53 | 420 | 88 |
| Angel Roman L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.78 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.83 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 169 | +0.05 | 2.74 | 196 | 87 |
| Sam Hentges L 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.37 | 2.31 | 576 | 87 |
| Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.18 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.2% | .295 | 4.62 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.55 | 135 | 87 |
| Deyer Zapata L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.35 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .309 | 5.27 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 50 | +0.92 | 3.73 | 130 | 87 |
| Brayan Mendoza L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 18 | SU | 5.26 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | .273 | 3.89 | 17.1% | 6.3% | 221 | -1.37 | 3.59 | 303 | 87 |
| Rigoberto Borbolla L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 17 | SU | 3.86 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 1.5% | .336 | 7.48 | 9.9% | -15.3% | 14 | +3.62 | 3.86 | 114 | 85 |
| Denny Bentley L 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 85 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.39 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .302 | 6.34 | 19.3% | 0.0% | 176 | +1.95 | 4.39 | 233 | 84 |
| Jesus Gomez L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SW | 5.12 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 4.32 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 23 | -0.80 | 4.22 | 121 | 84 |
| Nick Wells L 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.38 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.97 | 13.4% | 2.7% | 346 | -0.41 | 3.93 | 459 | 83 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 83 |
| Miguel Jerez L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.53 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .268 | 3.46 | 14.8% | 8.9% | 129 | -1.07 | 3.39 | 151 | 83 |
| Adam Macko L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.88 | 22.4% | 14.6% | 1.5% | .353 | 3.62 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 72 | -0.26 | 3.41 | 342 | 83 |
| Jacob Bresnahan L 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.00 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.02 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 93 | -1.98 | 3.02 | 163 | 83 |
| Melkis Hernández L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.16 | 16.4% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .291 | 4.14 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 185 | -0.02 | 3.81 | 262 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $14M | +$10M | ||