Aaron Salazar

C DSL Twins

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1305ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIN	137	.192/.382/.269	0	7	31	—	.117/.279/.162
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIN	247	.200/.289/.276	1	5	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIN	26	.205/.294/.291	0	1	69	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIN	82	.209/.298/.303	1	2	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Z-Con%85

BB%84

Whiff%70

Chase%69

wOBA49

Speed45

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Pablo Aliendo (age 20) · Javier Herrera (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .287 / .274

PA43

HR0

K%29

BB%9

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	111	13	5	0	0	19	48	6	7	2	117	279	162	442	45	193	35	14	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	111	13	5	0	0	19	48	6	7	2	117	279	162	442	45	203	35	14	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	111	13	5	0	0	19	48	6	7	2	117	279	162	442	45	193	35	14	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	111	13	5	0	0	19	48	6	7	2	117	279	162	442	45	193	35	14	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	247	218	43	10	1	1	23	72	4	5	1	200	289	276	565	77	288	29	9	263	64	-11	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	76	68	14	3	0	1	7	22	1	2	0	204	294	290	584	86	290	29	9	270	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	169	148	32	7	1	2	16	48	3	4	1	209	298	303	601	94	291	28	9	277	73	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	281	248	53	11	2	4	26	79	5	6	2	212	301	314	615	101	292	28	9	282	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	377	332	71	15	2	5	35	104	7	8	2	216	303	323	627	108	293	28	9	286	80	-9	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	441	389	85	18	2	7	41	120	8	9	2	218	305	332	637	113	294	27	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	445	393	86	18	3	7	41	121	8	9	2	219	306	334	640	115	294	27	9	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	445	392	86	18	2	8	42	121	8	9	2	219	306	336	642	117	294	27	9	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	445	392	86	18	2	8	42	122	8	9	3	218	305	333	638	115	293	27	9	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	59%	445	393	85	18	2	7	42	123	7	9	3	216	303	328	632	112	292	28	9	288	81	-10	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	61%	445	394	83	17	2	7	41	124	7	8	3	214	300	322	622	108	290	28	9	284	78	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	445	394	82	17	2	6	41	126	7	8	3	210	297	314	611	104	288	28	9	279	75	-13	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	426	377	78	16	2	6	39	122	7	7	4	206	292	304	596	98	285	29	9	273	71	-15	-0	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	26	24	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	205	294	291	585	86	290	27	8	270	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	82	72	14	3	0	1	8	23	2	2	0	209	298	303	601	94	291	28	10	277	73	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	152	134	29	6	1	2	14	43	3	3	1	212	301	314	615	102	292	28	9	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	213	187	41	9	1	3	20	59	4	4	1	216	304	324	627	108	293	28	9	286	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	249	220	48	10	1	4	23	68	4	5	1	219	306	332	638	113	294	27	9	290	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	251	222	48	10	1	4	23	69	4	5	1	219	306	335	641	115	294	27	9	292	83	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	251	222	48	10	1	4	23	69	4	5	1	219	306	336	643	117	294	27	9	292	84	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	247	218	47	10	1	4	23	68	4	5	1	218	305	334	639	115	293	28	9	291	83	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	59%	263	232	49	10	1	4	25	73	4	5	2	216	303	329	632	113	292	28	10	288	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	61%	271	240	51	11	1	4	25	76	4	5	2	214	300	322	623	109	291	28	9	284	78	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	277	245	52	11	1	4	26	78	4	5	2	211	297	314	611	104	288	28	9	280	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	269	238	49	10	1	4	25	77	4	5	2	206	292	304	596	98	285	29	9	274	71	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2551	2254	480	101	10	38	237	710	41	50	14	213	299	317	617	104	292	28	9	285	78	-63	+4	-4	+46	+55	3.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	123	26	3	10	60	181	10	13	4	214	299	322	622	108	293	28	9	285	78	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4620	4069	861	183	22	68	436	1293	83	96	29	212	301	318	618	106	291	28	9	283	78	-112	+7	-7	+80	+97	6.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	122	26	3	10	61	182	12	14	4	213	302	322	624	108	292	28	9	283	78	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Twins · 137 PAwOBA .315 → .214 (−100)K% 28.5% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.47%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	35.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.98%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.022	13.66%
HBP% /PA	4.38%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.13%
Singles /BIP	18.46%	÷0.991	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	12.31%
Doubles /BIP	12.31%	÷0.982	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	7.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .214; ISO .077 → .046; BABIP .303 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.9	2,596	39	51	215	299	324	+46	+32	5.7	5.1
/162	664	10	13	+11.9	+8.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Salazar (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	198/287/274	76	288	0	1	29%	9%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	41→44	38→50	47→50	54	193/285/279	86	256	5	8	25%	11%	63	-1.3	188/262/304	116	277	10	9	34%	8%	61	-1.5	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Frank Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	40	35→45	48→30	48	184/279/246	61	271	2	5	30%	9%	55	-2.0	187/249/270	83	271	7	4	32%	6%	47	-2.5	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Jose Rosario 2011 · A	19	41	38→40	50	42	199/262/275	76	274	5	10	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/261/320	106	270	10	12	24%	4%	63	-1.3	230/277/334	104	276	9	10	19%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	40	36→40	48→45	45	189/256/257	68	261	3	9	27%	8%	47	-2.5	183/228/250	67	245	3	9	25%	4%	34	-3.5	223/284/281	57	303	4	8	26%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	40	36→45	51→60	50	186/273/253	67	253	2	13	25%	9%	54	-2.0	202/271/287	85	305	6	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	207/258/332	125	300	14	35	34%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4

Aaron Salazar

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps