Aaron Salazar — OGILVIE

Aaron SalazarC DSL Twins

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 114 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .276 / .270

PA114

HR1

K%32

BB%9

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.4	$5M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$36M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	137	114	14	5	0	0	16	57	6	7	2	123	265	167	431	44	241	42	12	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	MIN	—	114	101	20	4	1	1	10	36	2	2	0	198	283	287	570	89	289	32	9	256	54	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIN	34%	204	180	36	8	1	2	18	62	4	3	1	200	287	289	576	89	292	30	9	268	63	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2028	20	MLB	MIN	48%	341	302	63	13	2	5	30	101	6	6	1	209	293	315	607	106	293	30	9	277	70	-12	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2029	21	MLB	MIN	54%	444	393	83	17	2	7	39	130	9	7	2	211	297	318	615	107	294	29	9	283	74	-13	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2030	22	MLB	MIN	57%	517	456	98	20	3	9	46	150	10	9	2	215	301	331	632	116	295	29	9	287	78	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2031	23	MLB	MIN	58%	520	459	100	21	3	9	46	150	10	9	2	218	303	336	638	118	296	29	9	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.3
2032	24	MLB	MIN	57%	520	459	101	21	3	10	46	150	10	9	2	220	305	344	649	124	297	29	9	291	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2033	25	MLB	MIN	57%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	149	10	9	2	221	307	345	652	124	297	29	9	293	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2034	26	MLB	MIN	57%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	149	10	9	2	221	307	345	652	124	297	29	9	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2035	27	MLB	MIN	55%	520	458	100	20	3	10	47	150	10	9	2	218	305	341	645	122	297	29	9	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2036	28	MLB	MIN	55%	520	457	99	20	3	10	48	151	10	8	2	217	305	339	644	123	296	29	9	292	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2037	29	MLB	MIN	53%	520	457	99	20	3	10	48	152	10	8	2	217	305	339	644	123	295	29	9	290	80	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2038	30	MLB	MIN	53%	520	457	97	20	2	9	48	153	10	7	1	212	301	324	625	112	294	29	9	288	78	-13	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.0
2039	31	MLB	MIN	52%	504	443	93	19	2	9	46	150	10	6	1	210	299	323	621	113	291	30	9	284	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2040	32	MLB	MIN	56%	489	432	89	18	2	8	45	147	9	5	1	206	294	312	607	106	288	30	9	278	71	-16	+1	-4	+9	+14	0.4
2041	33	MLB	MIN	59%	473	418	83	16	2	7	43	145	9	4	1	199	287	297	584	98	283	31	9	271	66	-18	+0	-4	+8	+13	-0.0
2042	34	MLB	MIN	54%	436	385	74	14	2	6	40	136	8	2	0	192	282	286	567	94	277	31	9	263	60	-20	+0	-5	+8	+12	-0.4
2027	19	MLB	MIN	34%	70	63	13	3	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	206	286	302	587	95	292	30	9	255	53	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	MIN	48%	165	146	30	6	1	2	15	49	3	3	1	205	293	301	594	96	293	30	9	263	59	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2029	21	MLB	MIN	54%	241	213	45	9	1	4	21	70	5	4	1	211	297	319	616	108	294	29	9	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB	MIN	57%	293	259	57	12	2	5	26	85	6	5	1	220	306	340	646	120	295	29	9	273	67	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	MIN	58%	299	264	57	12	2	5	27	86	6	5	1	216	303	333	636	117	296	29	9	275	69	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	24	MLB	MIN	57%	296	262	58	12	2	6	26	85	6	5	1	221	306	351	657	130	297	29	9	277	70	-10	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	25	MLB	MIN	57%	295	261	58	12	2	6	26	85	6	5	1	222	307	352	660	130	297	29	9	279	71	-10	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	26	MLB	MIN	57%	294	260	58	12	2	6	26	84	6	5	1	223	308	354	662	131	297	29	9	279	72	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2035	27	MLB	MIN	55%	289	255	56	11	2	6	26	83	6	5	1	220	307	349	656	129	297	29	9	279	72	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2036	28	MLB	MIN	55%	286	252	54	11	1	6	26	83	6	5	1	214	303	337	640	123	296	29	9	278	71	-9	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2037	29	MLB	MIN	53%	278	245	52	11	1	5	26	81	5	4	1	212	301	327	627	114	295	29	9	277	70	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2038	30	MLB	MIN	53%	274	242	52	11	1	5	25	81	5	4	1	215	301	331	632	116	294	30	9	274	68	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2039	31	MLB	MIN	52%	263	232	49	10	1	5	24	78	5	3	1	211	299	328	626	116	292	30	9	270	65	-10	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.0
2040	32	MLB	MIN	56%	275	243	50	10	1	5	25	83	5	3	1	206	293	317	610	111	288	30	9	265	61	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.1
2041	33	MLB	MIN	59%	279	246	49	10	1	4	26	85	5	2	0	199	289	297	586	98	284	30	9	258	56	-14	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.3
2042	34	MLB	MIN	54%	237	209	40	8	1	3	22	74	4	1	0	191	281	282	563	91	277	31	9	250	49	-14	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4134	3652	778	160	21	74	373	1213	80	60	13	213	300	329	629	116	296	29	9	271	66	-159	+7	-11	+74	+117	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	122	25	3	12	59	191	13	9	2	213	300	329	630	117	295	29	9	271	66	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	7819	6887	1451	298	40	132	710	2318	153	119	26	211	299	323	622	112	294	30	9	283	75	-222	+13	-20	+140	+222	13.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	121	25	3	11	59	193	13	10	2	211	300	323	623	112	295	30	9	283	75	-18	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+4	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,248	73	60	213	296	326	+76	+40	8.2	6.9
	/162	664	11	9	213	296	326	+11.9	+6.3	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#6Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Salazar (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	192/276/270	78	289	1	2	32%	9%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Alejandro Selen 2007 · A	18	39	35→50	51→30	41	183/255/247	64	290	2	11	35%	8%	37	-2.6	203/258/279	76	265	4	7	24%	5%	46	-2.0	214/250/346	131	319	13	1	36%	3%	57	-0.5
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2018 · A	18	45	37→55	51→40	37	209/263/281	71	306	3	8	31%	5%	49	-1.8	197/253/262	65	271	2	5	27%	5%	40	-2.4	183/253/290	107	242	12	2	29%	6%	49	-0.6
✕Ronny Brito 2017 · A	18	39	37→45	47→50	45	183/260/259	77	269	3	9	31%	8%	43	-2.2	190/241/289	99	320	9	7	41%	6%	42	-2.3	158/205/274	116	290	15	3	49%	5%	22	-1.1
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→50	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	52	-1.6	193/254/254	61	272	4	9	28%	7%	38	-2.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	44	38→45	51→50	41	207/269/289	82	311	6	11	33%	7%	53	-1.5	209/275/309	100	307	7	11	32%	7%	62	-0.9	189/260/299	110	270	7	17	30%	8%	52	-0.5
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	30	-3.1	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	58	-1.2	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	56	-0.4