Aaron Salazar — OGILVIE

Aaron SalazarC DSL Twins

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 114 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .278 / .273

PA10

HR0

K%31

BB%9

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	114	14	5	0	0	16	57	6	7	2	123	265	167	431	44	227	42	12	208	27	-12	+1	—	—	+3	-0.9
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	114	14	5	0	0	16	57	6	7	2	123	265	167	431	44	241	42	12	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	137	104	20	8	0	0	26	39	6	7	2	192	382	269	652	77	303	28	19	319	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	114	14	5	0	0	16	57	6	7	2	123	265	167	431	44	227	42	12	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	137	114	14	5	0	0	16	57	6	7	2	123	265	167	431	44	227	42	12	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		289	30	10	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	204	180	37	8	1	2	18	61	4	4	1	206	292	294	587	89	291	30	9	270	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	341	302	63	13	2	5	30	99	6	7	1	209	293	315	607	106	293	29	9	278	74	-10	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	444	394	84	18	2	7	39	127	8	9	2	213	297	322	619	109	294	29	9	284	78	-11	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.7
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	517	456	100	21	3	9	46	147	10	11	2	219	305	338	642	118	295	28	9	288	81	-12	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	520	459	100	21	3	9	46	147	10	11	2	218	303	336	638	118	296	28	9	291	83	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	147	10	11	2	221	307	345	652	124	297	28	9	293	84	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	147	10	11	2	221	307	345	652	124	297	28	9	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	147	10	11	2	221	307	345	652	124	297	28	9	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	458	101	21	3	10	47	147	10	11	2	221	307	345	652	124	296	28	9	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	59%	520	457	100	20	3	10	48	148	10	11	2	219	307	341	648	123	296	28	9	294	85	-9	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	61%	520	457	100	20	3	10	48	149	10	10	2	219	307	341	648	123	295	29	9	292	84	-10	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	520	457	98	20	2	10	48	150	10	10	2	214	303	333	636	118	294	29	9	289	82	-11	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	504	442	94	19	2	9	47	147	10	10	2	213	303	326	628	113	291	29	9	285	79	-13	+1	-3	+9	+11	0.6
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIN	64%	489	432	89	18	2	8	45	145	9	9	2	206	294	312	607	106	287	30	9	280	75	-14	+1	-4	+9	+11	0.3
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	473	418	83	16	2	7	43	142	9	9	2	199	287	297	584	98	283	30	9	273	71	-16	+1	-4	+8	+10	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	70	63	13	3	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	206	286	302	587	95	291	30	9	256	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	165	146	30	6	1	2	15	48	3	3	1	205	293	301	594	96	293	29	9	265	74	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	241	213	46	10	1	4	21	69	5	5	1	216	301	329	630	113	294	29	9	270	78	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	293	259	57	12	2	5	26	83	6	6	1	220	306	340	646	120	295	28	9	274	81	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	299	264	58	12	2	5	27	85	6	6	1	220	306	337	644	117	296	28	9	277	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	296	261	58	12	2	6	27	84	6	6	1	222	310	352	662	130	297	28	9	279	84	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	295	261	58	12	2	6	26	83	6	6	1	222	307	352	660	130	297	28	9	280	85	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	260	58	12	2	6	26	83	6	6	1	223	308	354	662	131	297	28	9	281	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	289	255	56	11	2	6	26	82	6	6	1	220	307	349	656	129	297	28	9	281	86	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	59%	307	270	59	12	2	6	28	87	6	6	1	219	306	344	650	126	296	28	9	280	85	-5	+1	-0	+5	+7	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	61%	317	279	61	12	2	6	29	91	6	6	1	219	306	341	646	122	295	29	9	278	84	-6	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.7
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	324	285	62	13	2	6	30	93	6	6	1	218	305	340	646	123	294	29	9	275	82	-7	+1	-1	+6	+7	0.5
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	318	280	59	12	1	6	29	93	6	6	1	211	298	325	623	114	291	29	9	271	79	-8	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.4
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIN	64%	312	274	56	11	1	5	29	92	6	6	1	204	294	307	601	102	288	29	9	266	75	-9	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.2
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	307	270	55	11	1	5	28	92	6	6	1	204	293	307	600	104	283	30	9	260	71	-11	+1	-3	+5	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4127	3640	786	161	23	75	373	1186	81	81	14	216	303	335	637	119	296	29	9	274	80	-93	+11	-9	+74	+89	7.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	124	25	4	12	59	187	13	13	2	216	304	337	641	120	297	29	9	274	80	-15	+2	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7279	6409	1367	283	37	126	663	2110	142	152	30	213	301	328	629	115	295	29	9	286	80	-162	+18	-15	+128	+155	12.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	121	25	3	11	59	188	13	14	3	212	300	323	623	112	292	29	9	286	80	-15	+2	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.4	4,242	74	85	215	299	330	+76	+40	10.2	8.3
/162	664	12	13	+11.9	+6.3	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Salazar (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	194/278/273	79	289	1	2	31%	9%	61	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→40	36→45	51→60	46	196/275/269	73	281	3	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/270/288	87	311	7	23	35%	7%	60	-1.6	204/257/327	123	302	13	35	35%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	45	-2.7	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Alejandro Selen 2007 · A	18	39	35→50	51→30	41	183/255/247	64	290	2	11	35%	8%	45	-2.7	203/258/279	76	265	4	7	24%	5%	53	-2.1	221/258/362	141	318	15	1	34%	3%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	38	-3.2	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	62	-1.4	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	66	-1.1	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43→45	39→50	55	42	205/265/294	89	297	6	14	32%	7%	59	-1.7	186/260/273	87	276	6	12	32%	8%	53	-2.1	195/272/312	117	292	11	20	34%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→41	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	58	-1.7	196/241/316	120	278	11	5	32%	5%	55	-2.0	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Luis Palacios 2007 · A	18	43	37→40	50	47	203/279/272	70	286	4	13	29%	8%	59	-1.6	204/261/283	79	271	5	7	25%	6%	55	-2.0	192/241/268	76	252	6	4	25%	5%	42	-1.0
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→45	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	57	-1.8	195/258/260	65	272	4	9	28%	7%	48	-2.5	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	44	38→45	51→50	41	207/269/289	82	311	6	11	33%	7%	59	-1.7	209/275/309	100	307	7	11	32%	7%	66	-1.1	189/260/299	110	270	7	17	30%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→46	41→50	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	68	-1.0	209/282/325	116	301	11	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	45	-2.7	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	55	-2.0	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2016 · A	18	41	36→50	49→45	47	196/260/260	65	259	4	13	25%	8%	49	-2.4	201/257/293	92	274	8	9	28%	6%	56	-1.9	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	45→49	37→55	49→50	43	209/275/287	78	306	4	12	31%	8%	61	-1.5	237/274/370	133	286	14	15	22%	4%	80	-0.2	245/282/403	158	315	17	11	27%	4%	89	+0.5
✕Ronny Brito 2017 · A	18	39	37→45	47→50	45	183/260/259	77	269	3	9	31%	8%	49	-2.4	190/241/290	100	319	9	7	41%	6%	49	-2.4	157/203/270	114	287	15	3	49%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→48	36→50	49→40	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	49	-2.4	204/277/280	76	276	6	5	26%	8%	61	-1.5	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps