Adrian De Leon
C Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AARI | 298 | .208/.382/.320 | 5 | 5 | 64 | — | .175/.314/.264 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/AARI | 317 | .169/.299/.250 | 3 | 2 | 15 | — | .124/.221/.180 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/AARI | 156 | .156/.294/.281 | 4 | 2 | 22 | — | .120/.235/.210 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBARI | 2 | .157/.254/.237 | 0 | 0 | 41 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBARI | 58 | .165/.261/.256 | 1 | 1 | 47 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBARI | 110 | .170/.266/.269 | 2 | 1 | 52 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | — | 88 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 349 | 306 | 654 | 83 | 283 | 23 | 11 | 304 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs Red | — | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 304 | 211 | 515 | 53 | 200 | 17 | 17 | 256 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 146 | 116 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 328 | 462 | 414 | 876 | 86 | 480 | 27 | 14 | 403 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 231 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 208 | 382 | 320 | 702 | 113 | 291 | 27 | 17 | 334 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 77 | 66 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 260 | 152 | 411 | 15 | 225 | 34 | 12 | 211 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 240 | 194 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 312 | 284 | 595 | 103 | 260 | 31 | 13 | 272 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 86 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 274 | 233 | 507 | 68 | 297 | 41 | 9 | 239 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 70 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 319 | 345 | 664 | 200 | 185 | 36 | 16 | 306 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 2 | — | 88 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 267 | 227 | 494 | 67 | 188 | 27 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Red | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 217 | 150 | 367 | 50 | 132 | 22 | 13 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 146 | 124 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 345 | 306 | 651 | 73 | 397 | 39 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 106 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 175 | 314 | 264 | 578 | 89 | 274 | 36 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 77 | 69 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 195 | 116 | 311 | 14 | 212 | 45 | 8 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 240 | 205 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 102 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 132 | 229 | 200 | 429 | 68 | 219 | 42 | 9 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 86 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 238 | 213 | 451 | 67 | 279 | 50 | 7 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 70 | 58 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 86 | 232 | 207 | 439 | 121 | 160 | 49 | 11 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 2 | — | 88 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 267 | 227 | 494 | 67 | 212 | 27 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs 2 | — | 88 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 349 | 306 | 654 | 83 | 283 | 23 | 11 | 304 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Red | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 217 | 150 | 367 | 50 | 133 | 22 | 13 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs Red | — | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 304 | 211 | 515 | 53 | 200 | 17 | 17 | 256 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 146 | 124 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 345 | 306 | 651 | 73 | 409 | 39 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Red | — | 146 | 116 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 328 | 462 | 414 | 876 | 86 | 480 | 27 | 14 | 403 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 106 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 175 | 314 | 264 | 578 | 89 | 285 | 36 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 231 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 208 | 382 | 320 | 702 | 113 | 291 | 27 | 17 | 334 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 273 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 128 | 227 | 183 | 410 | 55 | 236 | 43 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 317 | 260 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 100 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 299 | 250 | 549 | 81 | 252 | 32 | 13 | 258 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 156 | 134 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 229 | 209 | 438 | 90 | 241 | 49 | 8 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 156 | 128 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 156 | 294 | 281 | 575 | 125 | 250 | 38 | 12 | 269 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs 2 | — | 88 | 77 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 267 | 221 | 488 | 65 | 188 | 27 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Red | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 217 | 150 | 367 | 50 | 132 | 22 | 13 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 146 | 124 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 345 | 306 | 651 | 73 | 397 | 39 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 106 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 175 | 314 | 264 | 578 | 89 | 274 | 36 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 279 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 125 | 227 | 179 | 406 | 54 | 217 | 43 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 156 | 136 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 229 | 206 | 435 | 88 | 226 | 49 | 8 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 298 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 106 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 175 | 314 | 264 | 578 | 89 | 274 | 36 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 279 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 125 | 227 | 179 | 406 | 54 | 217 | 43 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 156 | 136 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 229 | 206 | 435 | 88 | 226 | 49 | 8 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 2% | 269 | 236 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 108 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 153 | 251 | 230 | 481 | 77 | 260 | 40 | 9 | 228 | 41 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 254 | 237 | 492 | 80 | 269 | 50 | 0 | 233 | 41 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 31% | 188 | 164 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 257 | 249 | 507 | 89 | 263 | 39 | 9 | 238 | 47 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 45% | 247 | 217 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 262 | 263 | 525 | 97 | 265 | 38 | 9 | 245 | 52 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 31% | 58 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 261 | 256 | 517 | 91 | 272 | 40 | 9 | 242 | 47 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 45% | 110 | 96 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 266 | 269 | 535 | 99 | 274 | 38 | 9 | 249 | 52 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 168 | 148 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 269 | 277 | 546 | 101 | 284 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 43 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 573 | 101 | 23 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 251 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 176 | 269 | 279 | 549 | 103 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 43 | -38 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1588 | 1363 | 215 | 42 | 2 | 20 | 148 | 625 | 55 | 17 | 4 | 158 | 267 | 236 | 502 | 78 | 267 | 39 | 9 | 232 | 43 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +10 | +12 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 558 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 61 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 158 | 268 | 235 | 503 | 77 | 268 | 39 | 9 | 232 | 43 | -40 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 86 PAwOBA .234 → .191 (−42)K% 40.7% → 49.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 22.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .191; ISO .068 → .053; BABIP .297 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 70 PAwOBA .299 → .214 (−84)K% 35.7% → 48.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 9.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 8.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .214; ISO .200 → .140; BABIP .185 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 240 PAwOBA .271 → .201 (−71)K% 30.8% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.83% | ÷0.983 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.92% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.50% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 15.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.283 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .271 → .201; ISO .103 → .070; BABIP .260 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 77 PAwOBA .207 → .158 (−49)K% 33.8% → 45.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.77% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 45.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.908 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 2.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .207 → .158; ISO .015 → .012; BABIP .225 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 298 PAwOBA .326 → .263 (−63)K% 26.5% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.51% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.44% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 4.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 93, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .326 → .263; ISO .113 → .087; BABIP .291 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 146 PAwOBA .396 → .286 (−110)K% 27.4% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.40% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.70% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.16% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.42% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 36.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.987 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.25% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .396 → .286; ISO .086 → .064; BABIP .480 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL D-backs Red · 23 PAwOBA .251 → .173 (−78)K% 17.4% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 9.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .173; ISO .053 → .032; BABIP .200 → .132. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL D-backs 2 · 88 PAwOBA .303 → .208 (−96)K% 22.7% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | ×1.002 | ×1.022 | 15.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.997 | ×0.600 | ×1.002 | ×1.022 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.002 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.92% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .303 → .208; ISO .083 → .048; BABIP .283 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).