Chris Okey

C Oklahoma City Comets

Age 32 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAALAA	235	.281/.346/.414	6	2	69	—	.233/.286/.330
2024	29	AAAOklahoma City…	178	.236/.284/.327	2	4	39	—	.208/.244/.292
2025	30	AAALAD	161	.228/.281/.336	3	0	34	—	.190/.225/.268
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBLAD	11	.203/.246/.299	0	0	54	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBLAD	24	.198/.242/.290	0	0	51	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Z-Con%90

Max EV69

Whiff%66

K%44

Chase%36

Speed35

CompsEli Whiteside (age 33) · Yamid Haad (age 32) · Tuffy Gosewisch (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .246 / .299

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%5

BABIP258

ISO115

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.147

POWER40

Avg EV

1074.7

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	169	148	36	8	1	6	14	49	4	5	0	243	325	432	758	189	319	29	8	332	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	39	37	6	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	162	184	189	373	27	200	21	3	167	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	363	325	60	10	1	3	32	104	4	2	1	185	265	249	514	65	260	29	9	241	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	285	263	52	13	0	5	17	72	4	2	0	198	257	304	561	106	253	25	6	255	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	32	29	6	0	0	2	2	7	1	0	0	207	281	414	695	207	200	22	6	310	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	33	33	4	1	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	121	121	152	273	30	200	39	0	121	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	171	149	34	6	1	7	19	52	1	0	0	228	320	423	742	195	297	30	11	327	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	194	169	40	7	1	5	22	47	2	0	0	237	332	379	710	142	297	24	11	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	129	118	26	4	3	2	10	39	0	0	1	220	281	356	637	136	308	30	8	283	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	235	210	59	6	2	6	16	48	5	2	2	281	346	414	761	133	338	20	7	336	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	165	39	5	2	2	10	33	1	4	0	236	284	327	611	91	282	19	6	273	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	149	34	5	1	3	9	40	2	0	0	228	281	336	617	107	290	25	6	277	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	169	153	27	6	1	4	9	68	4	5	0	176	241	307	548	131	263	40	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	39	37	5	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	135	158	162	320	27	156	31	3	118	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	363	335	48	8	1	2	23	148	4	2	1	143	207	191	398	48	243	41	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	285	268	45	11	0	4	12	85	4	2	0	168	215	254	469	86	232	30	4	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	32	29	4	0	0	1	2	10	1	0	0	138	219	241	460	103	178	31	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	33	33	3	1	0	0	0	16	0	0	0	91	91	121	212	30	181	48	0	88	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	171	154	27	4	1	5	14	66	1	0	0	175	249	312	560	136	252	39	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	194	178	36	6	1	3	13	59	2	0	0	202	264	298	562	96	282	30	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	129	121	22	3	3	1	7	49	0	0	1	182	227	281	508	99	288	38	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	235	215	50	5	2	4	11	57	5	2	2	233	286	330	616	98	290	24	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	168	35	4	2	2	7	40	1	4	0	208	244	292	536	83	255	22	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	153	29	4	1	2	5	47	2	0	0	190	225	268	493	78	257	29	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	208	190	32	7	1	4	10	79	4	5	0	168	225	279	504	111	257	38	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	208	185	42	9	1	6	15	57	4	5	0	227	299	384	683	157	290	27	7	301	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	363	335	48	8	1	2	23	148	4	2	1	143	207	191	398	48	247	41	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	363	325	60	10	1	3	32	104	4	2	1	185	265	249	514	65	260	29	9	241	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	298	51	11	0	6	13	95	5	2	0	171	218	268	487	97	228	30	4	215	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	317	292	58	13	0	7	19	79	5	2	0	199	259	315	575	116	248	25	6	261	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	204	187	30	5	1	5	14	82	1	0	0	160	223	278	501	118	248	40	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	204	182	38	7	1	7	19	65	1	0	0	209	287	374	661	165	279	32	9	294	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	194	178	36	6	1	3	13	59	2	0	0	202	264	298	562	96	282	30	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	194	169	40	7	1	5	22	47	2	0	0	237	332	379	710	142	297	24	11	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	129	121	22	3	3	1	7	49	0	0	1	182	227	281	508	99	292	38	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	129	118	26	4	3	2	10	39	0	0	1	220	281	356	637	136	308	30	8	283	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	235	215	50	5	2	4	11	57	5	2	2	233	286	330	616	98	297	24	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	235	210	59	6	2	6	16	48	5	2	2	281	346	414	761	133	338	20	7	336	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	168	35	4	2	2	7	40	1	4	0	208	244	292	536	83	260	22	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	165	39	5	2	2	10	33	1	4	0	236	284	327	611	91	282	19	6	273	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	153	29	4	1	2	5	47	2	0	0	190	225	268	493	78	257	29	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	149	34	5	1	3	9	40	2	0	0	228	281	336	617	107	290	25	6	277	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	208	192	32	7	1	4	10	79	4	5	0	167	225	276	502	109	243	38	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	363	333	48	8	1	2	23	148	4	2	1	144	207	192	399	48	243	41	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	296	51	11	0	6	13	95	5	2	0	172	218	270	489	98	227	30	4	215	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	204	187	30	5	1	5	14	82	1	0	0	160	223	278	501	118	241	40	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	194	177	36	6	1	3	13	59	2	0	0	203	264	299	564	96	282	30	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	129	121	22	3	3	1	7	49	0	0	1	182	227	281	508	99	288	38	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	235	217	50	5	2	4	11	57	5	2	2	230	286	327	613	97	290	24	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	168	35	4	2	2	7	40	1	4	0	208	244	292	536	83	255	22	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	153	29	4	1	2	5	47	2	0	0	190	225	268	493	78	257	29	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	178	168	35	4	2	2	7	40	1	4	0	208	244	292	536	83	255	22	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	161	153	29	4	1	2	5	47	2	0	0	190	225	268	493	78	257	29	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAD	10%	211	198	41	8	1	3	9	54	2	4	1	206	249	305	554	99	264	26	4	248	54	-11	+0	-0	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAD	10%	11	11	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	203	246	299	545	97	258	27	0	245	54	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAD	27%	87	82	16	3	0	1	4	23	1	1	0	202	245	296	541	94	260	26	5	243	51	-5	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAD	27%	24	23	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	198	242	290	532	92	254	25	4	239	51	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	24	23	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	174	208	217	426	43	235	25	4	239	38	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	623	108	27	0	0	27	162	0	0	0	173	208	217	424	43	234	25	4	239	38	-38	+0	-32	+12	+14	-4.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2187	2031	371	60	13	32	112	707	26	18	4	183	235	272	507	90	260	32	5	224	38	-11	+1	-4	+4	+4	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	111	18	4	10	33	210	8	5	1	184	236	276	512	93	261	32	5	224	38	-37	+2	-14	+12	+14	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 161 PAwOBA .272 → .219 (−53)K% 24.8% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.84%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	29.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.59%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.43%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.12%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.976	×0.962	21.05%
Doubles /BIP	4.59%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.976	×0.962	3.69%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.976	×0.962	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .272 → .219; ISO .107 → .078; BABIP .290 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 178 PAwOBA .268 → .226 (−42)K% 18.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.54%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.62%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.69%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.51%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷0.977	×0.930	×0.992	×0.972	20.86%
Doubles /BIP	3.79%	÷0.930	×0.830	×0.992	×0.972	3.26%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.126	×0.970	×0.992	×0.972	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷0.896	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .268 → .226; ISO .091 → .073; BABIP .282 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 235 PAwOBA .329 → .270 (−59)K% 20.4% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.43%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.81%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.59%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.96%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷1.058	×0.930	×1.001	×0.982	24.02%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷0.967	×0.830	×1.001	×0.982	3.13%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.001	×0.982	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .329 → .270; ISO .133 → .103; BABIP .338 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 129 PAwOBA .278 → .223 (−55)K% 30.2% → 37.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.23%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	37.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.75%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.015	×0.992	20.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.06%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.015	×0.992	4.43%
Triples /BIP	3.80%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.015	×0.992	4.12%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .278 → .223; ISO .136 → .105; BABIP .308 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 194 PAwOBA .311 → .255 (−55)K% 24.2% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.23%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	30.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.31%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.49%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.97%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.039	×1.003	21.58%
Doubles /BIP	5.74%	÷0.945	×0.830	×1.039	×1.003	5.25%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.039	×1.003	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	4.10%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.65%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .311 → .255; ISO .142 → .106; BABIP .297 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 171 PAwOBA .321 → .247 (−73)K% 30.4% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.41%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	38.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.949	×0.680	—	×0.998	7.95%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.49%
Singles /BIP	20.62%	÷0.974	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	18.46%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.950	×0.998	4.60%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×0.998	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	7.22%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×0.998	5.88%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .247; ISO .195 → .147; BABIP .297 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 33 PAwOBA .118 → .088 (−29)K% 39.4% → 49.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.39%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	49.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.151	×0.690	—	×1.033	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.033	14.16%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.082	×0.830	—	×1.033	3.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .118 → .088; ISO .030 → .020; BABIP .200 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 285 PAwOBA .248 → .212 (−37)K% 25.3% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.26%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.96%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.012	4.25%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.19%
Singles /BIP	17.80%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.021	×1.012	16.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.81%	÷1.039	×0.910	×1.021	×1.012	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.880	×1.021	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.62%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.33%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .248 → .212; ISO .106 → .092; BABIP .253 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chris Okey (OGILVIE)	32	40	40	45	30	205/247/303	98	264	2	2	25%	4%	54	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eli Whiteside 2013 · MLB	33	40	41→50	43→40	42	198/254/298	100	253	9	5	25%	6%	56	-1.9	173/222/268	95	231	10	5	29%	5%	37	-3.3	136/179/216	80	179	10	1	31%	4%	7	-2.3
✕Yamid Haad 2010 · AAA	32	41	41→45	43→40	39	203/240/298	94	262	9	5	26%	4%	50	-2.3	229/274/332	103	285	9	6	22%	6%	70	-0.8	246/291/336	90	298	6	2	19%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2016 · MLB	32	45→43	41→45	45→40	44	218/260/316	98	254	8	7	18%	5%	61	-1.5	204/261/314	110	251	11	4	23%	6%	62	-1.4	184/245/283	99	232	9	1	24%	6%	47	-1.3
✕Raul Chavez 2006 · MLB	33	43	39→40	45→30	41	207/247/290	83	254	6	5	21%	4%	51	-2.3	212/247/294	82	241	7	4	15%	4%	51	-2.2	220/252/306	86	244	8	1	13%	3%	55	-0.7
✕J.C. Boscan 2012 · AAA	32	41	37→40	40→30	42	199/247/271	72	255	5	4	24%	5%	47	-2.6	182/231/251	69	243	5	5	26%	5%	36	-3.4	167/211/202	34	218	2	2	23%	5%	14	-1.4
✕Drew Butera 2015 · MLB	31	39	42→40	48→40	46	196/257/298	102	241	10	4	23%	7%	57	-1.8	225/282/347	122	281	12	4	24%	7%	78	-0.3	226/286/352	126	282	12	0	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Maldonado 2011 · AAA	32	41→50	41→40	45→40	44	206/258/300	94	256	9	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	197/265/302	105	268	11	6	29%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/280	106	230	11	0	28%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Juan Martinez 2019 · AAA	32	46→50	43→40	44→40	42	228/264/337	109	273	11	6	21%	4%	68	-1.0	230/273/332	102	302	10	5	26%	5%	70	-0.8	227/266/308	81	303	8	0	27%	4%	59	-1.0
✕Ali Solis 2019 · AAA	31	40	42→45	47→30	34	198/234/297	99	287	10	7	34%	4%	48	-2.5	206/245/341	135	278	17	7	32%	5%	62	-1.4	185/220/320	135	238	18	3	31%	4%	45	-1.6
✕Gookie Dawkins 2011 · AAA	32	40→48	43→45	44→50	38	198/249/310	111	283	11	8	33%	6%	57	-1.8	202/256/331	129	284	14	11	33%	6%	64	-1.3	174/227/292	117	236	15	12	32%	6%	42	-1.8
✕Pete Kozma 2019 · MLB	31	39→47	38→45	48→50	41	187/231/267	80	236	5	10	23%	5%	39	-3.1	204/255/309	105	247	9	7	21%	6%	59	-1.7	194/245/285	91	239	7	5	21%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Jorge Velandia 2008 · MLB	33	47→51	41→40	46→45	42	229/268/327	98	282	8	9	22%	5%	67	-1.1	212/267/298	86	274	8	7	24%	6%	61	-1.5	192/254/234	42	250	4	3	23%	6%	38	-1.9
✕Paul Hoover 2008 · AAA	32	46	44→45	45	42	225/274/344	119	288	10	6	25%	6%	74	-0.6	213/263/309	96	292	8	4	28%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/280	78	281	5	1	28%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Ed Rogers 2011 · AAA	32	46→50	39→40	49→50	42	222/263/308	86	265	7	14	19%	4%	61	-1.5	222/272/320	98	269	9	12	20%	5%	68	-1.0	245/292/305	60	291	9	12	19%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Luis Flores 2019 · AAA	32	41	46→40	48→45	44	210/256/339	129	248	14	8	22%	6%	66	-1.1	229/274/379	150	269	17	9	22%	6%	82	+0.0	215/247/374	158	234	20	0	19%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Alex Prieto 2007 · MLB	31	43	40	44→45	45	210/261/299	89	263	8	8	23%	6%	58	-1.7	217/271/325	108	267	9	9	21%	7%	68	-1.0	211/263/319	108	252	7	5	19%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Hiroyuki Nakajima 2014 · AAA	32	48	39→40	47→45	39	230/275/308	78	311	7	7	28%	5%	65	-1.2	218/270/306	88	288	9	8	26%	6%	63	-1.3	199/252/264	65	259	7	6	25%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Elliot Soto 2022 · AAA	32	46→52	39→40	48→50	44	218/278/304	86	291	6	10	26%	7%	66	-1.1	193/255/272	79	276	5	16	30%	7%	50	-2.3	174/240/240	67	253	4	20	31%	7%	35	-1.9
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	44	44→45	47→50	42	220/261/338	118	263	12	9	22%	5%	68	-1.0	223/263/321	98	256	8	12	16%	5%	63	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Luis Bustillos 2009 · AAA	31	44	40	43→40	39	217/255/311	94	285	8	7	26%	4%	58	-1.7	222/270/308	86	295	7	9	26%	5%	63	-1.3	217/261/254	37	296	0	5	25%	4%	46	-0.8