Alvaro Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Alvaro GonzalezSS Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 25 S/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .269 / .303

PA170

HR3

K%31

BB%7

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	172	31	3	4	1	14	52	5	8	9	180	262	262	523	81	248	27	7	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	163	40	4	6	1	23	36	5	8	9	245	356	362	718	117	305	19	12	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	163	144	22	5	0	1	11	40	4	5	2	153	233	208	441	56	196	25	7	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	163	137	30	8	0	1	18	28	4	5	2	219	327	299	626	80	259	17	11	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	215	34	5	0	2	20	85	9	2	3	158	258	209	467	51	246	35	8	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	205	41	7	0	2	30	61	9	2	3	200	328	263	591	63	271	25	12	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	173	152	19	8	0	1	14	79	6	0	1	125	227	197	424	72	247	46	8	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	173	146	27	10	0	3	20	53	6	0	1	185	308	315	623	130	264	31	12	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	63	7	0	0	1	8	33	2	1	0	111	233	159	392	48	200	44	11	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	59	9	0	0	2	12	22	2	1	0	153	315	254	569	102	194	29	16	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	2 teams	—	126	113	14	2	1	1	10	45	3	2	0	124	214	186	400	62	194	36	8	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	2 teams	—	126	108	17	3	1	1	15	35	3	2	0	157	278	231	509	74	222	28	12	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	DET	—	170	153	30	5	1	3	13	52	2	3	1	196	268	301	569	105	279	31	8	262	59	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	DET	30%	288	260	54	9	2	6	22	86	4	5	1	208	280	327	607	119	281	30	8	271	65	-11	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	332	299	63	11	2	7	26	98	4	5	1	211	283	331	614	120	282	30	8	275	69	-12	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2029	28	MLB	DET	48%	360	323	67	12	2	7	29	106	5	5	1	207	283	322	605	115	282	29	8	276	70	-12	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.2
2027	26	MLB	DET	30%	87	79	17	3	1	2	7	26	1	1	0	215	287	354	642	139	277	30	8	257	55	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	DET	42%	138	124	25	4	1	3	11	41	2	2	1	202	277	323	600	121	277	30	8	261	58	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	28	MLB	DET	48%	171	153	32	6	1	3	14	50	2	3	1	209	284	320	604	111	278	29	8	263	59	-8	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	396	356	74	13	3	8	32	117	5	6	2	208	282	329	611	121	283	30	8	261	58	-19	+0	-0	+4	+11	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	121	21	5	13	53	192	8	10	3	207	282	327	609	120	283	30	8	261	58	-31	+1	-1	+7	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	2127	1894	341	60	12	30	167	676	44	36	19	180	262	272	534	92	258	32	8	243	44	-134	-0	-1	+23	+60	-5.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	104	18	4	9	51	207	13	11	6	180	261	271	532	92	258	32	8	243	44	-41	-0	-0	+7	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	163	40	4	6	1	23	36	5	8	9	245	356	362	718	117	305	19	12	324	106	+1	-2	—	—	+5	0.5
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	163	137	30	8	0	1	18	28	4	5	2	219	327	299	626	80	259	17	11	287	78	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1
2021	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	205	41	7	0	2	30	61	9	2	3	200	328	263	591	63	271	25	12	283	75	-7	-1	—	—	+7	-0.1
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	144	123	23	7	0	3	15	43	5	0	1	187	301	317	618	130	256	30	10	286	77	-4	-0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2022	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	29	23	4	3	0	0	5	10	1	0	0	174	345	304	649	130	308	34	17	310	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	59	9	0	0	2	12	22	2	1	0	153	315	254	569	102	194	29	16	271	66	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	34	28	7	2	1	0	5	12	1	0	0	250	382	393	775	143	438	35	15	354	129	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	92	80	10	1	0	1	10	23	2	2	0	125	239	175	414	50	161	25	11	207	17	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	566	11	9	207	276	321	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
	/162	664	13	10	207	276	321	+7.1	+7.0	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alvaro Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	198/269/303	105	279	3	3	31%	7%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	38	44→40	50	44	193/277/309	116	270	12	12	32%	8%	65	-0.7	203/293/294	91	284	8	11	29%	9%	67	-0.5	196/291/271	75	277	5	10	28%	10%	57	-0.6
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→29	40→45	49→60	37	191/259/277	86	288	7	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	177/254/283	106	281	10	16	38%	8%	47	-1.9	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	47→45	46→40	38	196/255/325	129	280	16	4	35%	6%	58	-1.2	208/286/325	117	284	13	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	198/285/294	97	267	10	2	28%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	41→40	53→50	47	203/277/300	97	290	8	12	31%	9%	60	-1.0	208/289/309	101	313	9	15	33%	10%	68	-0.5	198/288/293	95	302	8	17	34%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Skye Bolt 2019 · AA	25	40→39	46→50	51→50	41	201/260/336	135	284	13	12	33%	7%	63	-0.9	214/277/356	142	303	15	12	32%	7%	75	-0.0	238/304/382	144	312	16	12	28%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jan Vázquez 2016 · AA	25	40	41→40	43→45	41	195/268/292	97	287	9	7	33%	7%	55	-1.4	215/288/307	92	290	7	9	27%	7%	68	-0.5	211/289/296	86	282	7	7	26%	7%	61	-0.3
✕Jose Herrera 2022 · AAA	25	42	44→40	49→40	49	209/288/326	117	282	12	6	29%	10%	72	-0.2	214/283/299	85	280	8	4	25%	8%	63	-0.9	208/277/269	62	268	4	1	23%	8%	50	-0.7
✕Taylor Gushue 2019 · AA	25	33	45→50	42→30	39	179/236/296	116	244	14	2	32%	6%	42	-2.3	212/261/345	133	295	15	3	32%	6%	65	-0.7	204/266/342	138	281	16	0	32%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	193/273/296	103	282	8	8	32%	9%	58	-1.2	214/297/319	105	298	10	14	29%	9%	75	-0.0	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	35→33	44→45	51→55	37	184/244/295	111	265	12	16	35%	6%	46	-2.0	200/274/327	127	297	14	15	35%	8%	67	-0.5	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→33	43→45	48→45	41	191/257/300	109	268	10	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	202/261/308	106	298	10	7	33%	7%	56	-1.3	189/237/299	111	279	11	0	35%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Marcus Littlewood 2016 · AA	24	39	45	46→45	46	200/265/322	122	256	13	5	27%	8%	61	-1.0	214/269/324	110	289	10	5	28%	7%	63	-0.9	204/259/301	97	278	9	2	29%	7%	50	-0.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	38	43→50	50→40	39	192/251/299	107	277	11	5	34%	6%	50	-1.8	211/268/341	130	275	14	5	28%	6%	67	-0.5	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	36	44→45	47→50	43	187/255/303	116	259	12	5	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/267/312	121	296	14	14	37%	9%	60	-1.0	169/257/271	103	275	11	16	40%	10%	43	-1.1
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→36	43→50	48→45	44	203/282/318	115	297	11	7	33%	8%	68	-0.5	193/294/347	154	320	18	5	41%	11%	82	+0.5	177/286/336	158	296	20	3	43%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Chase Simpson 2017 · A	25	39→37	43→45	51→45	44	194/265/308	114	274	9	5	31%	8%	58	-1.2	194/252/309	115	293	11	7	35%	6%	52	-1.6	126/167/239	113	192	13	3	42%	4%	-5	-1.3
✕James Free 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	45	43→30	39	211/261/324	113	293	13	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	225/282/361	136	298	16	4	29%	7%	79	+0.3	224/286/372	148	290	18	1	28%	7%	81	+0.3