Alvaro Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Alvaro GonzalezSS Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 25 S/R 6'0" / 165 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .271 / .304

PA15

HR0

K%31

BB%8

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	163	40	4	6	1	23	36	5	8	9	245	356	362	718	117	305	19	12	324	105	+1	-2	—	—	+4	0.4
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	163	137	30	8	0	1	18	28	4	5	2	219	327	299	626	80	259	17	11	287	81	-4	+0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2021	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	205	41	7	0	2	30	61	9	2	3	200	328	263	591	63	271	25	12	283	78	-7	-1	—	—	+5	-0.2
2022	21	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	144	123	23	7	0	3	15	43	5	0	1	187	301	317	618	130	256	30	10	286	79	-4	-0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2022	21	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	29	23	4	3	0	0	5	10	1	0	0	174	345	304	649	130	308	34	17	310	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	59	9	0	0	2	12	22	2	1	0	153	315	254	569	102	194	29	16	271	70	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	34	28	7	2	1	0	5	12	1	0	0	250	382	393	775	143	438	35	15	354	126	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	92	80	10	1	0	1	10	23	2	2	0	125	239	175	414	50	161	25	11	207	26	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	172	31	3	4	1	14	52	5	8	9	180	262	262	523	81	239	27	7	231	42	-13	-2	—	—	+4	-1.1
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	163	144	22	5	0	1	11	40	4	5	2	153	233	208	441	56	195	25	7	204	24	-15	+0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2021	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	215	34	5	0	2	20	84	9	2	3	158	258	209	467	51	244	34	8	218	34	-19	-1	—	—	+5	-1.5
2022	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	144	127	18	6	0	2	11	62	5	0	1	142	238	236	474	94	235	43	8	210	28	-12	-0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	29	25	3	2	0	0	3	15	1	0	0	120	241	200	441	80	239	52	10	191	15	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	63	7	0	0	1	8	32	2	1	0	111	233	159	392	48	188	43	11	203	24	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	34	30	6	2	1	0	3	14	1	0	0	200	294	333	627	133	361	41	9	268	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	92	83	8	1	0	1	7	32	2	2	0	96	185	145	329	48	139	35	8	153	-10	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	172	31	3	4	1	14	52	5	8	9	180	262	262	523	81	248	27	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	163	40	4	6	1	23	36	5	8	9	245	356	362	718	117	305	19	12	324	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	163	144	22	5	0	1	11	40	4	5	2	153	233	208	441	56	196	25	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	—	163	137	30	8	0	1	18	28	4	5	2	219	327	299	626	80	259	17	11	287	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	215	34	5	0	2	20	84	9	2	3	158	258	209	467	51	244	34	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	205	41	7	0	2	30	61	9	2	3	200	328	263	591	63	271	25	12	283	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	173	152	19	7	0	2	14	77	6	0	1	125	227	211	437	86	230	45	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	173	146	27	10	0	3	20	53	6	0	1	185	308	315	623	130	264	31	12	290	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	63	7	0	0	1	8	32	2	1	0	111	233	159	392	48	194	43	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	59	9	0	0	2	12	22	2	1	0	153	315	254	569	102	194	29	16	271	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	126	113	14	2	1	1	10	46	3	2	0	124	214	186	400	62	197	37	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	126	108	17	3	1	1	15	35	3	2	0	157	278	231	509	74	222	28	12	247	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	194	173	31	3	4	1	14	52	5	8	9	179	262	260	522	81	239	27	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	163	147	22	5	0	1	11	40	4	5	2	150	233	204	437	54	195	25	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	246	215	34	5	0	2	20	84	9	2	3	158	258	209	467	51	244	34	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	173	151	19	7	0	2	14	77	6	0	1	126	227	212	439	86	236	45	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	65	7	0	0	1	8	32	2	1	0	108	233	154	387	46	188	43	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	126	112	14	2	1	1	10	46	3	2	0	125	214	188	402	62	199	37	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	75	65	7	0	0	1	8	32	2	1	0	108	233	154	387	46	188	43	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	126	112	14	2	1	1	10	46	3	2	0	125	214	188	402	62	199	37	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	25	MLB MLE	DET	0%	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	143	200	143	343		279	33	7	264	65	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	30%	288	259	53	9	2	6	23	86	4	5	1	205	280	324	604	120	281	30	8	272	70	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	42%	332	298	62	11	2	7	27	98	4	5	1	208	283	329	612	121	282	30	8	276	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	48%	360	323	67	12	2	7	29	105	5	5	1	207	283	322	605	115	282	29	8	278	74	-11	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	49%	368	330	69	12	2	8	30	108	5	5	1	209	285	330	615	121	282	29	8	277	74	-12	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	50%	374	335	69	12	2	7	31	110	5	5	1	206	283	316	599	110	281	29	8	275	72	-12	+1	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	30%	87	79	17	3	1	2	7	26	1	1	0	215	287	354	642	139	276	30	8	258	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	42%	138	124	25	4	1	3	11	41	2	2	1	202	277	323	600	121	277	30	8	262	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	48%	171	153	32	6	1	3	14	50	2	3	1	209	284	320	604	111	277	29	8	264	74	-5	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	49%	181	162	34	6	1	4	15	53	2	3	1	210	285	333	618	123	277	29	8	263	74	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	50%	188	169	35	6	1	4	15	55	2	2	1	207	280	325	605	118	276	29	8	261	72	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	765	687	143	25	5	16	62	225	9	11	4	208	282	329	611	121	282	29	8	262	57	-25	+1	-2	+8	+17	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	121	21	4	14	53	191	8	9	3	207	283	329	611	122	280	29	8	262	57	-21	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2714	2418	449	78	15	43	218	843	52	43	20	186	267	284	551	98	262	31	8	252	57	-57	+3	-4	+19	+38	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	108	19	4	10	52	202	12	10	5	187	267	285	552	98	263	31	8	252	57	-21	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	935	19	14	207	279	324	+10	+9	0.5	0.5
/162	664	13	10	+7.1	+6.4	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alvaro Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	198/271/304	106	279	3	3	31%	8%	65	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA	25	42→45	41→40	53→50	47	202/277/299	97	284	9	12	30%	9%	65	-1.2	210/291/309	99	308	8	15	31%	10%	73	-0.6	202/291/293	92	298	8	17	32%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	41	42→45	48→55	46	196/275/302	106	285	8	8	32%	9%	65	-1.2	214/296/317	103	297	10	14	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/300/310	94	291	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Skye Bolt 2019 · AA	25	40→41	46→50	51→50	42	204/265/340	137	284	13	12	32%	7%	70	-0.9	218/281/357	139	307	14	12	32%	8%	80	-0.2	238/305/370	133	314	14	12	28%	8%	89	+0.2
✕Trei Cruz 2023 · AA	25	37→47	41→45	51→50	51	181/275/279	98	273	8	13	34%	12%	61	-1.5	204/283/319	115	288	10	10	30%	10%	72	-0.7	228/304/337	109	310	9	10	27%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Hutton Moyer 2018 · AA	25	41→42	45→50	53→50	36	207/257/332	126	297	12	14	34%	5%	65	-1.2	205/252/326	121	316	13	16	37%	5%	61	-1.5	160/195/293	133	245	19	22	43%	4%	31	-0.9
✕Blake Perkins 2022 · AA	25	39→49	43→50	51→55	45	194/267/301	107	277	11	15	33%	9%	62	-1.4	220/299/351	131	297	13	20	28%	10%	85	+0.2	226/309/352	126	299	12	25	27%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	38→40	44→50	51→50	39	193/251/307	114	272	12	15	33%	6%	57	-1.8	199/261/336	137	306	16	11	38%	7%	68	-1.0	179/258/334	155	270	19	6	39%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Eloy Gutierrez 2009 · AAA	24	39→49	43→40	50	40	193/250/304	111	277	9	10	33%	6%	56	-1.9	244/304/336	92	338	7	12	27%	8%	82	+0.0	249/312/327	78	347	5	13	27%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Jan Vázquez 2016 · AA	25	41	41→40	43→45	42	201/271/296	95	285	8	7	31%	7%	62	-1.4	218/291/312	94	290	7	9	26%	7%	74	-0.6	215/293/302	88	284	7	7	25%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Karexon Sanchez 2013 · AA	25	45→47	43→45	50	44	216/285/323	107	299	10	13	30%	8%	74	-0.6	235/307/349	114	316	10	12	27%	7%	88	+0.4	241/316/344	104	310	11	10	24%	7%	87	+0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2021 · AAA	25	46→48	41→45	48→55	45	221/283/317	96	297	8	12	27%	7%	71	-0.8	219/288/329	110	286	10	17	25%	8%	76	-0.4	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Kody Eaves 2018 · AAA	25	40→42	45	48→50	40	204/256/331	128	280	12	10	31%	6%	64	-1.3	194/246/305	111	272	10	7	31%	6%	54	-2.0	177/229/280	103	249	9	4	32%	6%	41	-2.1
✕Kaden Polcovich 2023 · AA	24	40→41	45	55	46	202/282/324	121	272	12	16	29%	8%	73	-0.6	200/281/310	110	279	10	18	30%	9%	70	-0.9	175/267/275	101	249	8	23	30%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	43→50	48→50	38	180/243/288	107	283	11	11	39%	7%	50	-2.3	191/251/293	102	287	8	10	34%	7%	53	-2.1	154/212/246	92	221	3	6	30%	7%	25	-1.0
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	189/257/298	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	192/267/306	114	292	12	14	36%	9%	63	-1.3	172/260/273	101	275	11	16	38%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕James Free 2023 · AAA	25	43→45	43→45	43→30	39	213/263/320	107	294	12	4	31%	6%	64	-1.3	227/286/356	129	295	14	4	27%	7%	81	-0.1	227/293/368	141	286	16	1	26%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Cam Devanney 2022 · AA	25	36→41	40→50	44→45	40	179/245/262	83	256	8	7	32%	6%	45	-2.7	212/275/354	142	276	15	7	28%	7%	77	-0.3	214/279/364	149	276	16	7	27%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	41	42→45	49→55	37	205/251/307	102	287	10	9	32%	5%	57	-1.8	192/247/307	115	274	13	21	34%	6%	55	-1.9	171/232/261	89	254	9	26	35%	5%	37	-1.5
✕Yu Chang 2021 · MLB	25	43→44	44→50	47→45	42	214/273/333	120	291	12	7	30%	7%	71	-0.8	223/279/380	157	291	18	7	29%	6%	84	+0.2	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps