Silas Ardoin
C Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AABowie Baysox | 417 | .200/.301/.275 | 4 | 3 | 29 | — | .166/.243/.214 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AABAL | 372 | .216/.352/.355 | 8 | 4 | 65 | — | .193/.291/.299 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAABAL | 240 | .183/.326/.274 | 2 | 2 | 41 | — | .158/.264/.225 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBBAL | 15 | .164/.260/.244 | 0 | 0 | 45 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 57 | .167/.262/.250 | 1 | 0 | 47 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 54 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 358 | 250 | 608 | 23 | 370 | 33 | 15 | 292 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 529 | 529 | 12 | 53 | 369 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 117 | 105 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 359 | 410 | 768 | 124 | 403 | 30 | 9 | 347 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 268 | 214 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 86 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 215 | 371 | 336 | 707 | 121 | 331 | 32 | 19 | 331 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 360 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 116 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 301 | 275 | 576 | 75 | 280 | 28 | 11 | 269 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 108 | 93 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 361 | 430 | 791 | 172 | 345 | 29 | 14 | 356 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 264 | 208 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 74 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 197 | 348 | 322 | 670 | 125 | 272 | 28 | 17 | 306 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 197 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 87 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 326 | 274 | 600 | 91 | 315 | 36 | 17 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 54 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 302 | 217 | 519 | 22 | 352 | 43 | 11 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 17 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 294 | 18 | 29 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 117 | 108 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 299 | 324 | 623 | 83 | 379 | 37 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 268 | 233 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 114 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 155 | 262 | 253 | 515 | 99 | 261 | 43 | 12 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 374 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 146 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 166 | 243 | 214 | 457 | 48 | 255 | 35 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 108 | 98 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 296 | 347 | 643 | 122 | 335 | 35 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 264 | 222 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 87 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 289 | 279 | 568 | 99 | 249 | 33 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 209 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 264 | 225 | 488 | 67 | 301 | 43 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 300 | 172 | 472 | 17 | 273 | 37 | 15 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 71 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 400 | 212 | 612 | 19 | 303 | 28 | 24 | 310 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 341 | 61 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 157 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 85 | 307 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 385 | 319 | 76 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 61 | 121 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 238 | 367 | 361 | 728 | 122 | 356 | 31 | 16 | 336 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 374 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 146 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 166 | 243 | 214 | 457 | 48 | 262 | 35 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 360 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 116 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 301 | 275 | 576 | 75 | 280 | 28 | 11 | 269 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 320 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 125 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 288 | 297 | 585 | 106 | 282 | 34 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 372 | 301 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 105 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 216 | 352 | 355 | 707 | 140 | 294 | 28 | 16 | 320 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 209 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 264 | 225 | 488 | 67 | 308 | 43 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 197 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 87 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 326 | 274 | 600 | 91 | 315 | 36 | 17 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 300 | 169 | 469 | 17 | 268 | 37 | 15 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 385 | 339 | 61 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 157 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 180 | 271 | 265 | 536 | 86 | 297 | 41 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 376 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 146 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 165 | 243 | 213 | 455 | 48 | 255 | 35 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 325 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 125 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 288 | 292 | 581 | 105 | 274 | 34 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 208 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 264 | 226 | 490 | 67 | 301 | 43 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 417 | 376 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 146 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 165 | 243 | 213 | 455 | 48 | 255 | 35 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 325 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 125 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 288 | 292 | 581 | 105 | 274 | 34 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 240 | 208 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 264 | 226 | 490 | 67 | 301 | 43 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 10% | 290 | 255 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 112 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 162 | 258 | 239 | 497 | 77 | 270 | 39 | 11 | 234 | 45 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 10% | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 260 | 244 | 504 | 80 | 274 | 40 | 13 | 237 | 45 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 31% | 183 | 160 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 260 | 245 | 505 | 80 | 271 | 38 | 10 | 237 | 47 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 31% | 57 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 262 | 250 | 512 | 83 | 274 | 39 | 11 | 240 | 47 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 57 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 275 | 538 | 98 | 286 | 39 | 11 | 240 | 46 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 102 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 68 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 262 | 271 | 533 | 96 | 284 | 39 | 10 | 240 | 46 | -41 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1821 | 1597 | 274 | 52 | 6 | 19 | 187 | 687 | 18 | 18 | 8 | 172 | 266 | 247 | 513 | 76 | 282 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 67 | 245 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 172 | 266 | 249 | 515 | 77 | 282 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | -42 | +1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 240 PAwOBA .280 → .229 (−52)K% 36.2% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.037 | ×1.018 | 21.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.018 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.037 | ×1.018 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .280 → .229; ISO .091 → .075; BABIP .315 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 264 PAwOBA .304 → .255 (−49)K% 28.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.03% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.91% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .304 → .255; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .272 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 108 PAwOBA .347 → .285 (−62)K% 28.7% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.70% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.89% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 26.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .347 → .285; ISO .172 → .131; BABIP .345 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 417 PAwOBA .264 → .211 (−53)K% 27.8% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.82% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 20.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .264 → .211; ISO .075 → .052; BABIP .280 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 268 PAwOBA .325 → .231 (−94)K% 32.1% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.09% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.66% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 11.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.59% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.91% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.76% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .325 → .231; ISO .121 → .101; BABIP .331 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 117 PAwOBA .338 → .273 (−65)K% 29.9% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.91% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.40% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.86% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 32.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.84% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .273; ISO .124 → .081; BABIP .403 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 54 PAwOBA .291 → .239 (−52)K% 33.3% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.061 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | — | 10.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | — | 33.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | — | — | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .239; ISO .023 → .018; BABIP .370 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Orioles · 17 PAwOBA .365 → .214 (−151)K% 11.8% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 52.94% | ÷1.031 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 31.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .365 → .214; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).