Kekai Rios — OGILVIE

Kekai RiosC New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .272 / .320

PA136

HR2

K%28

BB%7

ISO112

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	60	48	12	4	0	0	10	10	2	1	1	250	400	333	733	83	316	17	17	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	60	42	14	5	0	0	16	7	2	1	1	333	533	452	986	119	400	12	27	453	205	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	100	16	1	0	1	7	37	1	0	0	160	222	200	422	40	238	34	6	186	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	98	19	2	0	1	9	27	1	0	0	194	269	245	513	51	254	25	8	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+	2 teams	—	165	146	30	6	0	2	13	57	2	1	0	205	280	288	567	82	311	35	8	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+	2 teams	—	165	141	35	9	0	3	18	42	2	1	0	248	342	376	718	128	323	25	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	223	38	6	1	3	20	82	4	0	0	170	251	247	498	76	254	33	8	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	216	47	8	1	4	27	65	4	0	0	218	316	319	635	102	293	26	11	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+	2 teams	—	184	168	26	4	0	2	9	71	5	0	0	155	220	214	434	60	247	39	5	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+	2 teams	—	184	163	34	5	0	4	14	53	5	0	0	209	291	313	604	104	278	29	8	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	53	6	2	0	1	3	18	0	1	0	113	161	208	368	94	147	32	5	147	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	52	7	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	135	196	250	446	115	162	25	7	204	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	TOR	—	136	125	26	5	1	2	9	38	1	2	1	208	267	312	579	104	280	28	7	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	TOR	23%	194	176	38	7	1	4	14	54	2	3	1	216	281	335	616	119	280	28	7	272	66	-7	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.0
2028	31	MLB	TOR	35%	209	190	40	8	1	4	15	58	2	3	1	211	275	326	602	116	279	28	7	272	66	-8	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.1
2027	30	MLB	TOR	23%	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	282	27	7	265	61	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	31	MLB	TOR	35%	73	67	14	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	209	274	299	572	90	280	27	7	265	61	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	117	108	23	5	0	2	8	32	1	2	0	213	274	315	588	102	284	27	7	265	61	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	128	28	0	11	44	178	6	11	0	213	274	315	589	102	285	27	7	265	61	-29	+2	-8	+12	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	1360	1229	232	43	4	19	100	425	19	11	4	189	260	277	537	88	268	31	7	239	41	-90	+1	-5	+24	+39	-3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	111	21	2	9	48	203	9	5	2	189	260	278	538	89	269	31	7	239	41	-43	+0	-2	+12	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	60	42	14	5	0	0	16	7	2	1	1	333	533	452	986	119	400	12	27	453	205	+7	-0	—	—	+2	0.9
2019	22	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	98	19	2	0	1	9	27	1	0	0	194	269	245	513	51	254	25	8	240	42	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2021	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	21	19	2	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	105	190	158	348	53	154	29	10	171	-11	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2021	24	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	144	122	33	8	0	3	16	36	2	0	0	270	364	410	774	139	349	25	11	341	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	25	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	216	47	8	1	4	27	65	4	0	0	218	316	319	635	102	293	26	11	295	84	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2023	26	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	64	57	14	1	0	0	5	19	1	0	0	246	317	263	581	18	359	30	8	270	65	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	26	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	106	20	4	0	4	9	34	4	0	0	189	277	340	617	151	232	28	8	279	72	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2024	27	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	52	7	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	135	196	250	446	115	162	25	7	204	15	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kekai Rios (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	209/272/320	111	280	2	2	28%	7%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	42	44→45	47→30	43	212/272/328	116	281	12	3	28%	7%	66	-0.6	219/288/371	152	273	16	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	214/294/383	169	256	18	1	23%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Dustin Garneau 2017 · MLB	29	38→37	48→50	45	43	201/257/335	134	236	16	5	23%	6%	62	-0.9	199/266/341	142	248	16	4	26%	7%	67	-0.5	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→50	47→30	43	202/267/321	119	264	10	6	27%	7%	63	-0.9	218/278/353	135	306	15	6	32%	7%	75	-0.0	206/269/340	134	293	18	0	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	38	40	47→55	43	190/255/276	86	266	8	13	31%	7%	45	-2.1	197/261/293	96	305	9	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	152/225/219	67	257	5	5	40%	6%	15	-1.2
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Grayson Greiner 2022 · MLB	29	42	44→45	47→30	39	204/267/318	114	313	12	4	37%	7%	61	-1.0	195/258/307	112	367	12	6	46%	7%	54	-1.4	163/224/271	109	316	15	3	50%	7%	29	-0.9
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→38	43→45	44→40	43	213/270/326	113	269	11	3	25%	6%	64	-0.8	220/284/316	96	287	6	3	24%	7%	67	-0.5	220/291/305	85	286	5	0	23%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Tyler Payne 2022 · AA	29	42	43→45	48→40	36	208/251/319	110	295	10	5	32%	5%	53	-1.5	235/274/338	103	323	9	5	29%	4%	69	-0.4	241/277/335	94	316	8	2	25%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2015 · AAA	29	43	43→45	47→50	37	217/249/317	99	271	12	8	25%	3%	52	-1.6	223/267/352	129	282	15	14	26%	5%	69	-0.4	216/263/349	133	256	17	24	23%	4%	63	-0.2
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA	29	37	45	47→40	39	194/245/315	121	274	14	4	34%	6%	51	-1.7	195/251/321	126	280	15	5	34%	7%	55	-1.4	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2022 · MLB	29	40→42	47→55	44→45	37	207/255/336	129	285	16	4	33%	5%	61	-1.0	197/239/324	127	269	16	7	33%	4%	51	-1.7	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	38	48→45	50→45	38	200/242/340	140	254	16	10	29%	4%	56	-1.3	209/250/351	142	266	18	6	29%	4%	63	-0.9	191/229/327	136	233	21	0	29%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	41→42	41→45	51→50	41	201/265/300	99	287	8	10	31%	7%	56	-1.3	188/252/274	86	318	7	8	40%	7%	43	-2.2	130/202/174	44	264	1	2	47%	8%	-5	-2.2
✕Brad Davis 2013 · MLB	30	43	42→50	50→45	42	212/261/319	107	278	9	7	27%	6%	58	-1.2	205/249/317	112	274	11	9	28%	5%	53	-1.5	170/201/270	100	223	10	4	29%	4%	19	-0.9
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Caonabo Cosme 2007 · AAA	28	42	45→50	45	41	213/262/334	121	271	13	8	27%	6%	63	-0.8	223/253/356	133	316	15	7	33%	4%	64	-0.8	225/246/359	134	324	16	4	35%	3%	58	-0.5
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	40	43→45	43→40	42	200/265/312	112	284	10	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	218/285/362	144	262	15	6	22%	8%	81	+0.4	201/267/376	175	208	21	2	16%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	39→43	43→45	49→55	40	193/262/301	108	283	11	17	34%	7%	55	-1.4	210/295/327	117	333	12	25	37%	9%	76	+0.0	198/294/307	109	322	11	32	38%	10%	68	-0.2