Kekai Rios — OGILVIE

Kekai RiosC New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .273 / .321

PA11

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO113

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	60	42	14	5	0	0	16	7	2	1	1	333	533	452	986	119	400	12	27	453	193	+7	-0	—	—	+1	0.8
2019	22	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	98	19	2	0	1	9	27	1	0	0	194	269	245	513	51	254	25	8	240	48	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	21	19	2	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	105	190	158	348	53	154	29	10	171	2	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	24	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	144	122	33	8	0	3	16	36	2	0	0	270	364	410	774	139	349	25	11	341	117	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2022	25	A+	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	216	47	8	1	4	27	65	4	0	0	218	316	319	635	102	293	26	11	295	85	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1
2023	26	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	64	57	14	1	0	0	5	19	1	0	0	246	317	263	581	18	359	30	8	270	69	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	26	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	106	20	4	0	4	9	34	4	0	0	189	277	340	617	151	232	28	8	279	75	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	27	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	52	7	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	135	196	250	446	115	162	25	7	204	24	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	60	48	12	4	0	0	10	10	2	1	1	250	400	333	733	83	314	17	17	333	112	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	22	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	100	15	1	0	1	7	37	1	0	0	150	213	190	403	40	223	34	6	183	10	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2021	24	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	21	20	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	100	143	150	293	50	132	33	5	124	-30	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2021	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	144	126	28	6	0	2	12	49	2	0	0	222	300	317	617	95	314	34	8	272	70	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2022	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	223	38	6	1	3	20	85	4	0	0	170	251	247	498	76	254	34	8	223	37	-18	+0	—	—	+5	-1.3
2023	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	64	59	12	1	0	0	3	24	1	0	0	203	254	220	474	17	329	38	5	219	34	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	26	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	120	109	14	3	0	2	6	46	4	0	0	128	202	211	413	83	184	38	5	186	12	-13	+0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	27	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	53	6	2	0	1	3	17	0	1	0	113	161	208	368	94	142	30	5	152	-11	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	60	48	12	4	0	0	10	10	2	1	1	250	400	333	733	83	316	17	17	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	—	60	42	14	5	0	0	16	7	2	1	1	333	533	452	986	119	400	12	27	453	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	100	15	1	0	1	7	37	1	0	0	150	213	190	403	40	222	34	6	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	98	19	2	0	1	9	27	1	0	0	194	269	245	513	51	254	25	8	240	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	165	146	30	7	0	2	13	56	2	1	0	205	280	295	574	89	308	34	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	165	141	35	9	0	3	18	42	2	1	0	248	342	376	718	128	323	25	11	319	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	223	38	6	1	3	20	85	4	0	0	170	251	247	498	76	259	34	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	216	47	8	1	4	27	65	4	0	0	218	316	319	635	102	293	26	11	295	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	184	168	26	4	0	2	9	70	5	0	0	155	220	214	434	60	245	38	5	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	184	163	34	5	0	4	14	53	5	0	0	209	291	313	604	104	278	29	8	276	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	53	6	2	0	1	3	17	0	1	0	113	161	208	368	94	143	30	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	52	7	3	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	135	196	250	446	115	162	25	7	204	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	60	48	12	4	0	0	10	10	2	1	1	250	400	333	733	83	314	17	17	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	109	100	15	1	0	1	7	37	1	0	0	150	213	190	403	40	223	34	6	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	165	149	30	7	0	2	13	56	2	1	0	201	280	289	568	87	291	34	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	247	221	38	6	1	3	20	85	4	0	0	172	251	249	500	77	254	34	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	184	168	26	4	0	2	9	70	5	0	0	155	220	214	434	60	234	38	5	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	53	6	2	0	1	3	17	0	1	0	113	161	208	368	94	142	30	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	184	168	26	4	0	2	9	70	5	0	0	155	220	214	434	60	234	38	5	197	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	56	53	6	2	0	1	3	17	0	1	0	113	161	208	368	94	142	30	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		280	27	9	270	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TOR	23%	194	176	38	7	1	4	14	53	2	3	1	216	281	335	616	119	280	27	7	273	71	-7	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	35%	209	190	41	8	1	4	15	57	2	3	1	216	280	332	612	116	279	27	7	273	71	-7	+0	-3	+4	+5	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	TOR	23%	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	281	27	7	266	71	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	35%	73	67	14	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	209	274	299	572	90	280	27	7	266	71	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	117	108	23	5	0	2	8	32	1	2	0	213	274	315	588	102	284	27	7	266	48	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	128	28	0	11	44	178	6	11	0	213	274	315	589	102	285	27	7	266	48	-23	+2	-8	+12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1235	1114	207	39	3	17	92	388	18	9	3	186	259	272	531	86	265	31	7	239	48	-14	+0	-5	+7	+9	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	110	21	2	9	48	204	9	5	2	188	259	276	536	89	268	31	7	239	48	-23	+1	-8	+12	+14	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kekai Rios (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	210/273/321	112	280	2	2	28%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→45	47→30	44	203/271/323	120	265	10	6	26%	7%	68	-1.0	218/281/348	130	303	14	6	31%	7%	78	-0.3	206/269/329	123	290	16	0	33%	7%	70	-0.3
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	38	44→45	47→50	42	193/261/309	116	251	13	9	28%	6%	61	-1.5	213/285/338	125	283	14	11	28%	7%	78	-0.3	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	40	40	47→55	44	198/266/286	88	273	8	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/268/296	95	308	8	10	35%	7%	61	-1.5	157/228/221	64	263	4	5	39%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	43	42→45	47→30	44	210/271/314	104	281	10	3	28%	7%	66	-1.1	213/283/348	135	271	14	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	202/281/348	146	246	15	1	24%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA	29	44→40	47→50	49→40	40	224/265/356	132	284	15	6	27%	5%	73	-0.6	220/266/364	144	250	18	4	20%	6%	76	-0.4	210/256/355	145	226	20	0	18%	5%	68	-1.0
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA	29	38	45	47→40	40	197/251/316	119	276	14	4	33%	7%	59	-1.6	196/255/316	120	281	15	5	34%	7%	61	-1.5	175/280/306	130	256	18	8	36%	11%	67	-0.3
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	49→50	48→45	43	205/263/348	142	263	17	10	29%	7%	71	-0.8	223/279/369	146	284	18	8	27%	7%	82	-0.0	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	86	+0.1
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	44→50	46→45	50	188/283/306	118	262	12	9	31%	11%	70	-0.8	187/282/307	120	260	13	10	31%	11%	70	-0.9	168/270/286	118	229	14	8	31%	11%	59	-1.0
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA	29	45	44→45	48→40	38	223/260/344	121	297	12	8	29%	5%	68	-1.0	242/284/405	163	318	20	10	30%	5%	93	+0.8	236/273/389	152	303	20	5	29%	3%	82	+0.0
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	43→45	48→30	43	194/259/298	104	257	12	6	29%	7%	58	-1.7	211/261/323	112	273	12	5	26%	6%	64	-1.3	207/251/312	105	265	11	1	25%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Tyler Payne 2022 · AA	29	42	42→45	49→40	37	209/252/318	109	290	10	5	31%	5%	59	-1.6	234/273/332	98	317	8	5	27%	5%	70	-0.8	240/276/327	87	311	7	2	24%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	46→45	49→45	41	202/251/325	124	250	14	9	26%	5%	61	-1.5	201/247/324	123	254	12	9	25%	5%	59	-1.7	178/216/303	125	218	11	6	24%	4%	38	-1.3
✕Jay Caligiuri 2009 · AA	29	43→37	48→45	47→30	48	220/295/358	138	265	16	7	24%	8%	86	+0.3	207/278/312	105	248	11	8	20%	8%	68	-1.0	167/249/243	76	191	9	2	18%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Gabe Johnson 2008 · AAA	28	38	47→50	45→40	40	199/259/332	133	276	16	5	33%	7%	65	-1.2	210/269/319	109	308	10	9	33%	7%	66	-1.1	181/242/260	79	275	6	4	34%	7%	41	-0.7
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	39	48→45	50→45	39	204/250/344	140	257	16	10	28%	5%	65	-1.2	208/252/338	130	266	16	6	28%	4%	65	-1.2	189/227/304	115	235	17	0	28%	3%	44	-0.8
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	42	41→45	51→50	42	202/266/300	98	286	8	10	31%	7%	61	-1.5	191/256/277	86	314	7	8	38%	7%	52	-2.2	135/207/179	44	258	2	2	44%	8%	11	-2.1
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB	28	40	47→45	46→30	43	206/271/335	129	277	15	4	31%	8%	71	-0.8	196/261/305	109	342	12	5	43%	7%	61	-1.5	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Jordan Procyshen 2022 · AA	29	39	47→40	49→40	43	202/272/335	133	259	16	6	28%	7%	72	-0.7	208/288/325	117	296	12	9	32%	8%	76	-0.4	181/267/305	124	251	16	10	33%	8%	61	-0.3