Matt O'Neill
C Reno Aces| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AANYM | 103 | .170/.277/.250 | 1 | 0 | 18 | — | .152/.227/.218 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AANYM | 167 | .231/.337/.343 | 3 | 2 | 59 | — | .208/.283/.308 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AAARI | 232 | .235/.336/.403 | 6 | 0 | 66 | — | .209/.279/.345 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBARI | 13 | .192/.265/.299 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBARI | 44 | .192/.264/.297 | 1 | 0 | 55 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Mets | — | 95 | 70 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 286 | 457 | 400 | 857 | 114 | 396 | 24 | 19 | 385 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 192 | 139 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 405 | 273 | 679 | 86 | 359 | 39 | 25 | 333 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 20 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 579 | 929 | 263 | 455 | 35 | 5 | 403 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 254 | 206 | 36 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 328 | 272 | 600 | 97 | 274 | 32 | 17 | 287 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 105 | 87 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 365 | 368 | 733 | 126 | 328 | 27 | 15 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 22 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 227 | 263 | 490 | 158 | 111 | 41 | 14 | 231 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 226 | 198 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 279 | 308 | 587 | 131 | 259 | 35 | 12 | 271 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 59 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 263 | 280 | 543 | 120 | 250 | 37 | 12 | 245 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 44 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 295 | 211 | 506 | 26 | 269 | 27 | 14 | 248 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 65 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 277 | 305 | 582 | 102 | 289 | 31 | 9 | 267 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 102 | 84 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 376 | 369 | 745 | 119 | 333 | 25 | 16 | 341 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 168 | 143 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 340 | 413 | 752 | 161 | 330 | 26 | 11 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 64 | 53 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 328 | 377 | 705 | 189 | 211 | 20 | 17 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 95 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 337 | 299 | 636 | 91 | 307 | 35 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 192 | 156 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 107 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 268 | 160 | 429 | 51 | 294 | 56 | 16 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 20 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 300 | 550 | 850 | 250 | 422 | 40 | 0 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 254 | 225 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 107 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 129 | 225 | 200 | 425 | 71 | 232 | 42 | 10 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 250 | 432 | 150 | 102 | 50 | 9 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 226 | 208 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 217 | 250 | 467 | 101 | 249 | 43 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 59 | 52 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 211 | 231 | 441 | 96 | 221 | 46 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 44 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 25 | 255 | 32 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 65 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 215 | 246 | 461 | 82 | 260 | 37 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 102 | 89 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 327 | 348 | 675 | 112 | 326 | 30 | 11 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 168 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 228 | 290 | 356 | 646 | 128 | 306 | 32 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 64 | 57 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 250 | 316 | 566 | 158 | 173 | 25 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 95 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 337 | 299 | 636 | 91 | 333 | 35 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Mets | — | 95 | 70 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 286 | 457 | 400 | 857 | 114 | 396 | 24 | 19 | 385 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 192 | 156 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 107 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 268 | 160 | 429 | 51 | 306 | 56 | 16 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 192 | 139 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 405 | 273 | 679 | 86 | 359 | 39 | 25 | 333 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 338 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 159 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 145 | 233 | 231 | 464 | 86 | 254 | 42 | 9 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 379 | 312 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 116 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 202 | 340 | 317 | 657 | 115 | 301 | 31 | 16 | 306 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 228 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 210 | 232 | 442 | 92 | 237 | 44 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 248 | 217 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 274 | 304 | 578 | 134 | 248 | 36 | 12 | 268 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 103 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 218 | 207 | 424 | 65 | 235 | 40 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 103 | 88 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 277 | 250 | 527 | 80 | 259 | 33 | 13 | 246 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 150 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 277 | 280 | 557 | 80 | 301 | 34 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 167 | 143 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 337 | 343 | 680 | 112 | 316 | 28 | 13 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 205 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 274 | 322 | 596 | 122 | 276 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 232 | 196 | 46 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 336 | 403 | 739 | 168 | 296 | 25 | 12 | 324 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 95 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 337 | 287 | 624 | 87 | 307 | 35 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 192 | 156 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 107 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 268 | 160 | 429 | 51 | 294 | 56 | 16 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 337 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 159 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 145 | 233 | 231 | 465 | 86 | 246 | 42 | 9 | 210 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 226 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 210 | 235 | 444 | 93 | 236 | 44 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 103 | 93 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 218 | 204 | 422 | 65 | 236 | 40 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 149 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 277 | 282 | 559 | 81 | 300 | 34 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 209 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 274 | 316 | 590 | 120 | 269 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 103 | 93 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 218 | 204 | 422 | 65 | 236 | 40 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 167 | 149 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 277 | 282 | 559 | 81 | 300 | 34 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 209 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 274 | 316 | 590 | 120 | 269 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 10% | 252 | 228 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 72 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 260 | 289 | 549 | 103 | 249 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 10% | 13 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 265 | 299 | 564 | 107 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 257 | 56 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 27% | 161 | 145 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 259 | 287 | 547 | 101 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 27% | 44 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 264 | 297 | 561 | 105 | 259 | 30 | 9 | 255 | 55 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 325 | 598 | 125 | 269 | 30 | 9 | 255 | 43 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 119 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 59 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 274 | 328 | 602 | 127 | 271 | 30 | 9 | 255 | 43 | -35 | +0 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1710 | 1511 | 249 | 48 | 9 | 24 | 166 | 658 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 165 | 254 | 256 | 510 | 91 | 268 | 38 | 10 | 232 | 43 | -16 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 94 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 250 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 164 | 253 | 253 | 506 | 89 | 266 | 38 | 10 | 232 | 43 | -35 | -1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAReno Aces · 168 PAwOBA .321 → .275 (−45)K% 26.2% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 22.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 2.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .321 → .275; ISO .161 → .132; BABIP .330 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 64 PAwOBA .314 → .240 (−74)K% 20.3% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.31% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 11.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.958 | 8.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.987 | ×0.958 | 7.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.987 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 3.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .314 → .240; ISO .189 → .150; BABIP .211 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 102 PAwOBA .336 → .291 (−45)K% 25.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.49% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 10.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 25.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .336 → .291; ISO .119 → .100; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 65 PAwOBA .260 → .200 (−61)K% 30.8% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 19.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.167 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .200; ISO .102 → .067; BABIP .289 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 59 PAwOBA .243 → .189 (−54)K% 37.3% → 46.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.29% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷0.933 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 13.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 9.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .189; ISO .120 → .086; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 44 PAwOBA .242 → .204 (−39)K% 27.3% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 22.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .242 → .204; ISO .026 → .023; BABIP .269 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 226 PAwOBA .263 → .211 (−52)K% 35.4% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.40% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.80% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .263 → .211; ISO .131 → .103; BABIP .259 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 22 PAwOBA .225 → .156 (−69)K% 40.9% → 51.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.91% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 51.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 9.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 7.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .225 → .156; ISO .158 → .096; BABIP .111 → .102. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).