Matt O'Neill — OGILVIE

Matt O'NeillC Reno Aces

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 205 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION153 act + 102 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†44

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .257 / .297

PA102

HR2

K%31

BB%9

BABIP241

ISO121

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Mets	—	95	77	17	2	1	1	11	33	4	0	1	221	348	312	660	91	356	35	12	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK	GCL Mets	—	95	70	20	3	1	1	18	23	4	0	1	286	457	400	857	114	396	24	19	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	192	156	16	2	0	2	31	113	3	1	0	103	263	154	417	51	326	59	16	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	192	139	26	3	0	3	48	74	3	1	0	187	405	273	679	86	359	39	25	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	3 teams	—	379	334	48	8	4	4	39	164	4	1	2	144	241	228	469	84	262	43	10	219	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	3 teams	—	379	312	63	13	4	5	61	116	4	1	2	202	340	317	657	115	301	31	16	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	248	228	31	6	0	6	20	115	0	0	0	136	206	241	447	105	234	46	8	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	248	217	37	8	0	7	31	89	0	0	0	171	274	304	578	134	248	36	12	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	103	91	13	3	0	1	10	42	0	0	0	143	228	209	437	66	245	41	10	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	103	88	15	4	0	1	13	34	0	0	0	170	277	250	527	80	259	33	13	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	2 teams	—	167	149	30	6	0	2	16	57	1	2	1	201	283	282	565	81	308	34	10	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	2 teams	—	167	143	33	7	0	3	22	46	1	2	1	231	337	343	680	112	316	28	13	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	ARI	—	153	131	23	3	2	5	15	49	1	0	1	176	265	344	609	168	228	32	10	264	60	-7	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
YTD	28	AAA	ARI	—	153	125	26	4	2	6	21	38	1	0	1	208	327	416	743	208	241	25	14	320	103	+0	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.7
ROS	28	AAA	ARI	10%	102	91	16	3	1	2	9	32	1	1	0	176	257	297	554	121	229	31	9	242	44	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
ROS	28	MLB	ARI	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		231	30	10	240	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AAA	ARI	—	163	140	24	3	2	5	16	52	1	0	1	171	261	329	590	157	224	32	10	262	59	-8	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
TOT	28	AAA	ARI	—	255	222	39	6	3	7	24	81	2	1	1	176	262	324	586	149	234	32	9	255	54	-13	-0	+0	+5	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	ARI	27%	247	220	38	7	1	5	23	76	2	2	1	173	257	282	539	109	237	31	9	249	49	-14	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.4
2028	30	MLB	ARI	37%	292	261	46	9	1	6	27	89	2	2	1	176	259	287	546	111	240	30	9	252	51	-16	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.5
2029	31	MLB	ARI	43%	280	251	44	8	1	6	25	85	2	2	1	175	255	287	542	112	241	30	9	252	51	-16	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.6
2027	29	MLB	ARI	27%	67	61	10	2	0	1	6	21	0	1	0	164	239	246	485	82	239	31	9	247	47	-4	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	ARI	37%	109	97	16	3	0	2	10	33	1	1	0	165	250	258	508	93	242	30	9	250	49	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
2029	31	MLB	ARI	43%	121	108	21	4	1	3	11	37	1	1	0	194	275	333	608	139	243	31	9	249	49	-7	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	307	275	48	9	1	6	28	94	2	3	0	175	256	280	536	105	237	31	9	248	48	-18	+1	-2	+5	+9	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	102	19	2	13	59	199	4	6	0	175	255	282	537	107	238	31	9	248	48	-38	+1	-5	+12	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2105	1858	299	54	9	35	211	806	19	11	7	161	253	256	510	95	257	38	10	235	38	-147	-1	-6	+38	+60	-5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	93	17	3	11	65	249	6	3	2	162	255	260	514	98	258	38	10	235	38	-45	-0	-2	+12	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Mets	—	95	70	20	3	1	1	18	23	4	0	1	286	457	400	857	114	396	24	19	385	153	+6	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2021	23	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	192	139	26	3	0	3	48	74	3	1	0	187	405	273	679	86	359	39	25	333	113	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2022	24	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	20	19	6	2	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	316	350	579	929	263	455	35	5	403	167	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	24	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	254	206	36	6	4	2	44	81	3	0	1	175	328	272	600	97	274	32	17	287	78	-6	-0	—	—	+7	0.0
2022	24	INTL	Melbourne Aces	—	105	87	21	5	0	2	16	28	1	1	1	241	365	368	733	126	328	27	15	335	114	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	22	19	2	0	0	1	3	9	0	0	0	105	227	263	490	158	111	41	14	231	35	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	25	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	226	198	35	8	0	6	28	80	0	0	0	177	279	308	587	131	259	35	12	271	66	-9	+0	—	—	+6	-0.2
2024	26	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	59	50	8	3	0	1	7	22	0	0	0	160	263	280	543	120	250	37	12	245	45	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	44	38	7	1	0	0	6	12	0	0	0	184	295	211	506	26	269	27	14	248	48	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	65	59	12	3	0	1	6	20	0	0	0	203	277	305	582	102	289	31	9	267	63	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	27	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	102	84	21	4	0	2	16	26	1	2	1	250	376	369	745	119	333	25	16	341	119	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	316	7	2	178	256	292	+6	+4	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	14	5	178	256	292	+11.9	+8.4	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt O'Neill (OGILVIE)	28	20	40	44	53	176/262/324	149	234	7	1	32%	9%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB	28	41	39→45	42→40	39	200/246/285	85	278	6	5	30%	5%	43	-2.2	222/278/307	85	291	5	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	216/271/282	67	281	3	2	23%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Joe Hudson 2019 · AAA	28	40	40→45	47→40	43	197/251/291	95	263	7	3	27%	6%	47	-1.9	194/246/311	117	283	13	4	35%	6%	50	-1.7	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	39	41→40	49→55	43	192/252/288	96	264	8	14	30%	7%	46	-2.0	189/256/275	86	286	8	11	34%	7%	45	-2.1	154/227/217	62	241	6	8	36%	7%	15	-1.2
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	35	44→45	47→45	44	179/260/291	112	277	12	9	38%	10%	52	-1.6	180/266/322	142	275	19	6	39%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Clint Sammons 2011 · MLB	28	35→45	42→40	44→45	42	180/231/272	92	220	10	8	24%	5%	33	-2.9	191/240/322	131	249	17	7	30%	5%	51	-1.7	156/183/282	126	198	20	0	34%	2%	14	-1.0
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	45→40	47→30	40	194/250/312	118	257	13	5	29%	6%	53	-1.5	231/295/334	103	322	9	8	29%	8%	76	+0.1	254/328/320	66	364	4	0	28%	9%	87	+0.2
✕Dane Sardinha 2007 · AAA	28	36→32	41→45	47→30	38	186/230/275	89	246	10	4	29%	5%	33	-2.9	180/220/280	100	242	11	4	30%	4%	30	-3.1	157/216/246	89	222	10	0	33%	6%	17	-1.3
✕Jackson Williams 2014 · AAA	28	39	46→45	44→40	41	203/247/326	123	250	14	3	25%	5%	54	-1.4	201/257/286	85	261	7	5	24%	7%	48	-1.9	187/247/247	60	244	4	2	24%	7%	31	-1.5
✕Angelo Castellano 2023 · AAA	28	37→47	41→45	47→50	43	188/251/276	89	245	9	12	27%	7%	43	-2.2	224/284/365	141	271	17	14	23%	7%	80	+0.4	232/294/393	161	267	21	15	22%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Jeff Mathis 2012 · MLB	29	38→46	42→50	43→45	41	192/242/290	98	250	9	6	27%	6%	43	-2.2	205/257/330	125	274	14	4	29%	6%	59	-1.1	211/261/316	106	287	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→36	41→40	42→50	40	201/255/292	91	279	10	9	31%	6%	49	-1.8	189/252/290	101	263	12	11	31%	6%	47	-1.9	154/225/240	86	212	12	11	33%	7%	22	-1.3
✕Jesús Sucre 2016 · MLB	28	43	38→40	43→40	41	207/239/282	75	248	6	4	19%	4%	38	-2.6	233/273/340	107	271	11	6	18%	4%	69	-0.4	240/279/336	96	274	11	3	17%	4%	65	-0.2
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	37→47	38→45	46→50	39	184/239/256	72	270	6	8	33%	6%	33	-2.9	217/255/317	100	318	11	17	34%	4%	54	-1.4	222/246/322	99	331	13	23	36%	3%	49	-1.1
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	36	44→45	47→30	43	185/254/299	114	263	11	5	33%	8%	51	-1.7	195/267/300	105	315	10	6	38%	9%	56	-1.3	118/199/170	52	253	3	0	50%	9%	-6	-1.3
✕Kevin Cash 2005 · MLB	27	39	44→40	47→30	41	199/255/313	114	254	12	4	26%	6%	55	-1.4	200/261/333	133	270	15	4	31%	6%	63	-0.8	193/265/272	79	264	9	0	29%	9%	45	-0.5
✕Ali Solis 2017 · AAA	29	35	38→45	42→30	35	177/207/248	71	239	6	4	29%	3%	16	-4.1	201/236/313	112	282	12	6	32%	4%	46	-2.0	198/233/337	139	266	18	3	33%	4%	47	-0.9
✕Dave Wallace 2008 · AAA	28	34	47→45	43→40	42	182/256/313	130	250	17	5	33%	8%	56	-1.3	211/279/332	121	284	13	7	29%	8%	70	-0.3	205/282/307	102	267	11	0	26%	8%	64	-0.2
✕J.C. Boscan 2008 · AAA	28	42	37→40	44→30	47	202/273/271	69	281	6	6	28%	8%	51	-1.7	219/282/293	74	286	5	4	23%	7%	60	-1.0	219/280/288	69	285	5	2	23%	7%	55	-0.7