Connor Justus

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1994-11-02

Age (2027)32

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	23	AA/A+2 orgs	507	.220/.341/.312	6	7	51	—	.187/.280/.268
2019	24	AAMobile BayBea…	400	.184/.287/.251	2	7	15	—	.139/.219/.183
2021	26	AAA/AAMIA	321	.202/.290/.270	2	2	27	—	.165/.233/.210

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Burlington Bees	—	167	139	32	3	1	2	14	34	11	1	2	230	348	309	657	79	288	20	8	305	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	114	93	32	6	1	0	18	19	3	0	2	344	465	430	895	86	432	17	16	410	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	491	411	83	19	3	5	61	110	11	15	6	202	321	299	620	97	261	22	12	287	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	297	247	42	9	1	0	40	82	7	1	4	170	303	215	517	45	253	28	13	253	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	210	176	51	8	1	6	24	37	7	6	5	290	396	449	845	159	331	18	11	375	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	400	347	64	17	0	2	39	93	11	7	4	184	287	251	538	66	244	23	10	255	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	165	149	30	4	1	0	10	45	3	0	2	201	265	242	507	40	286	27	6	234	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	156	133	27	7	0	2	20	42	2	2	1	203	316	301	617	98	278	27	13	288	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	167	144	27	2	1	1	9	49	11	1	2	188	287	236	523	49	260	29	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	114	101	25	4	1	0	10	27	3	0	2	248	333	307	640	59	333	24	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	491	429	72	16	2	4	43	151	11	15	6	168	261	242	503	75	236	31	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	297	261	38	8	1	0	26	99	7	1	4	146	241	184	425	38	227	33	9	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	210	183	45	6	1	6	17	47	7	6	5	246	333	388	721	142	278	22	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	400	360	50	13	0	1	26	119	11	7	4	139	219	183	402	44	199	30	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	165	152	27	3	1	0	7	55	3	0	2	178	228	211	439	33	265	33	4	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	156	139	21	5	0	1	14	53	2	2	1	151	239	209	447	58	240	34	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	281	245	53	7	2	1	19	77	14	1	4	216	309	273	583	57	310	27	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	281	232	64	9	2	2	32	53	14	1	4	276	396	358	753	82	348	19	11	348	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	491	429	72	16	2	4	43	151	11	15	6	168	261	242	503	75	245	31	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	491	411	83	19	3	5	61	110	11	15	6	202	321	299	620	97	261	22	12	287	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	507	444	83	14	2	6	43	146	14	7	9	187	279	268	547	81	260	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	507	423	93	17	2	6	64	119	14	7	9	220	341	312	653	92	288	23	13	304	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	400	360	50	13	0	1	26	119	11	7	4	139	219	183	402	44	202	30	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Mobile BayBears	—	400	347	64	17	0	2	39	93	11	7	4	184	287	251	538	66	244	23	10	255	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	291	49	9	1	1	21	108	5	2	3	168	237	216	453	48	261	34	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	321	282	57	11	1	2	30	87	5	2	3	202	290	270	560	67	282	27	9	260	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	281	246	53	7	2	1	19	77	14	1	4	215	309	272	582	57	290	27	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	491	434	72	16	2	4	43	151	11	15	6	166	261	240	501	74	236	31	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	507	445	83	14	2	6	43	146	14	7	9	187	279	267	547	81	248	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	400	360	50	13	0	1	26	119	11	7	4	139	219	183	402	44	199	30	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	292	49	9	1	1	21	108	5	2	3	168	237	216	452	48	253	34	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2000	1769	307	59	7	13	152	601	55	32	26	174	260	237	497	63	252	30	8	225	39	-146	-4	+0	+21	+43	-8.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	99	19	2	4	49	195	18	10	8	172	259	233	492	61	250	30	8	225	39	-47	-1	+0	+7	+14	-2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 165 PAwOBA .229 → .197 (−33)K% 27.3% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.06%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.22%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.71%
Singles /BIP	24.04%	÷0.971	×0.930	×0.979	×1.003	22.60%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.979	×1.003	3.36%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.109	×0.920	×0.979	×1.003	0.78%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .229 → .197; ISO .040 → .033; BABIP .286 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 156 PAwOBA .283 → .220 (−63)K% 26.9% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.92%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	33.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.82%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×0.978	8.78%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	1.07%
Singles /BIP	19.78%	÷1.011	×0.940	×0.978	×0.978	17.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.026	×0.870	×0.978	×0.978	6.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.978	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.20%	÷1.011	×0.780	—	×0.978	1.66%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .283 → .220; ISO .098 → .074; BABIP .278 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMobile BayBears · 400 PAwOBA .250 → .190 (−60)K% 23.2% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.25%	÷0.956	×1.220	—	—	29.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.75%	÷1.020	×0.680	—	×0.998	6.49%
HBP% /PA	2.75%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	2.31%
Singles /BIP	17.72%	÷1.066	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	14.50%
Doubles /BIP	6.69%	÷1.054	×0.910	×0.950	×0.998	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.880	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷1.050	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.60%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 113, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 91, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .250 → .190; ISO .066 → .052; BABIP .244 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 297 PAwOBA .249 → .201 (−48)K% 27.6% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.61%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	33.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.47%	÷1.040	×0.680	—	×1.012	8.91%
HBP% /PA	2.36%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	2.00%
Singles /BIP	19.39%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.984	×1.012	17.40%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.014	×0.910	×0.984	×1.012	4.88%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷0.944	×0.880	×0.984	×1.012	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .249 → .201; ISO .045 → .040; BABIP .253 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 210 PAwOBA .371 → .305 (−66)K% 17.6% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.62%	÷1.044	×1.340	—	—	22.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.988	8.13%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	2.60%
Singles /BIP	25.90%	÷0.977	×0.910	×0.950	×0.988	22.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.087	×0.820	×0.950	×0.988	4.07%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷0.978	×0.760	×0.950	×0.988	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	4.32%	÷0.978	×0.920	—	×0.988	4.01%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 117, 3B 96, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .305; ISO .159 → .136; BABIP .331 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 491 PAwOBA .282 → .228 (−54)K% 22.4% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.40%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.42%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×0.998	8.78%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.77%
Singles /BIP	18.60%	÷0.955	×0.910	×0.973	×0.998	17.22%
Doubles /BIP	6.31%	÷0.891	×0.820	×0.973	×0.998	5.65%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.973	×0.998	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.66%	÷1.008	×0.920	—	×0.998	1.51%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 91, 2B 78, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .282 → .228; ISO .097 → .080; BABIP .261 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ABurlington Bees · 167 PAwOBA .300 → .237 (−63)K% 20.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.36%	÷0.939	×1.360	—	—	29.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.38%	÷1.037	×0.690	—	—	5.58%
HBP% /PA	6.59%	—	×0.780	—	—	5.14%
Singles /BIP	24.76%	÷0.975	×0.920	×0.969	—	22.65%
Doubles /BIP	2.86%	÷0.976	×0.830	×0.969	—	2.36%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.969	—	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	1.90%	÷1.285	×0.800	—	—	1.19%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .300 → .237; ISO .079 → .056; BABIP .288 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKOrem Owlz · 114 PAwOBA .398 → .286 (−112)K% 16.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.91%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×0.975	8.87%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	1.85%
Singles /BIP	33.78%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.990	×0.975	26.75%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.990	×0.975	5.64%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.990	×0.975	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .398 → .286; ISO .086 → .060; BABIP .432 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).