Cooper Johnson
C Round Rock Express| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AATEX | 300 | .235/.356/.474 | 14 | 0 | 68 | — | .177/.265/.342 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 424 | .219/.329/.344 | 9 | 5 | 55 | — | .180/.265/.283 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAATEX | 350 | .194/.292/.339 | 10 | 3 | 33 | — | .155/.225/.256 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBTEX | 16 | .182/.260/.301 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBTEX | 58 | .182/.259/.299 | 1 | 0 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 103 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 324 | 298 | 621 | 119 | 236 | 27 | 15 | 292 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 202 | 164 | 29 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 318 | 280 | 599 | 104 | 250 | 26 | 16 | 280 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 125 | 103 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 363 | 340 | 703 | 107 | 355 | 31 | 15 | 326 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 19 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 158 | 53 | 16 | 110 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 91 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 308 | 269 | 577 | 77 | 275 | 29 | 11 | 275 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 147 | 121 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 345 | 339 | 684 | 124 | 354 | 37 | 14 | 314 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 251 | 59 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 44 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 356 | 474 | 830 | 239 | 281 | 26 | 15 | 365 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 322 | 273 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 209 | 321 | 319 | 639 | 110 | 280 | 27 | 13 | 294 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 71 | 60 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 380 | 500 | 880 | 233 | 394 | 34 | 14 | 389 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 31 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 259 | 559 | 37 | 300 | 23 | 10 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 304 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 145 | 238 | 26 | 11 | 285 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 103 | 88 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 102 | 207 | 35 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 202 | 173 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 242 | 214 | 456 | 81 | 215 | 37 | 11 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 125 | 109 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 274 | 266 | 540 | 92 | 300 | 43 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 19 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 105 | 63 | 11 | 78 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 91 | 81 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 242 | 210 | 452 | 62 | 236 | 37 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 147 | 130 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 138 | 228 | 215 | 443 | 77 | 271 | 50 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 266 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 265 | 342 | 607 | 165 | 226 | 31 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 322 | 285 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 97 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 175 | 261 | 267 | 528 | 91 | 240 | 30 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 71 | 64 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 282 | 359 | 641 | 156 | 346 | 42 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 317 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 225 | 256 | 481 | 101 | 204 | 31 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 103 | 88 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 102 | 216 | 35 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 103 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 324 | 298 | 621 | 119 | 236 | 27 | 15 | 292 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 283 | 41 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 128 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 145 | 248 | 219 | 468 | 74 | 252 | 39 | 11 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 267 | 53 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 51 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 335 | 303 | 639 | 105 | 287 | 28 | 16 | 297 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 110 | 98 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 218 | 173 | 392 | 51 | 220 | 43 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 110 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 282 | 223 | 505 | 64 | 246 | 33 | 12 | 247 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 147 | 130 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 138 | 228 | 215 | 443 | 77 | 286 | 50 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 147 | 121 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 345 | 339 | 684 | 124 | 354 | 37 | 14 | 314 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 266 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 265 | 342 | 607 | 165 | 227 | 31 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 251 | 59 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 44 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 356 | 474 | 830 | 239 | 281 | 26 | 15 | 365 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 424 | 376 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 137 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 181 | 265 | 287 | 552 | 106 | 256 | 32 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 424 | 360 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 119 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 329 | 344 | 674 | 125 | 298 | 28 | 13 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 317 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 225 | 256 | 481 | 101 | 206 | 31 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 304 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 145 | 238 | 26 | 11 | 285 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 103 | 88 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 102 | 207 | 35 | 11 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 285 | 41 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 128 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 248 | 218 | 466 | 74 | 247 | 39 | 11 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 110 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 218 | 175 | 393 | 52 | 195 | 43 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 147 | 131 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 228 | 214 | 441 | 76 | 271 | 50 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 265 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 265 | 343 | 608 | 166 | 226 | 31 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 424 | 378 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 137 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 265 | 286 | 551 | 106 | 259 | 32 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 318 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 225 | 255 | 480 | 101 | 204 | 31 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 300 | 265 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 265 | 343 | 608 | 166 | 226 | 31 | 10 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 424 | 378 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 137 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 265 | 286 | 551 | 106 | 259 | 32 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 350 | 318 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 225 | 255 | 480 | 101 | 204 | 31 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 10% | 380 | 341 | 62 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 114 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 115 | 242 | 30 | 9 | 253 | 58 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 119 | 242 | 31 | 6 | 255 | 58 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | TEX | 27% | 212 | 190 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 259 | 295 | 553 | 113 | 243 | 30 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | TEX | 27% | 58 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 259 | 299 | 558 | 116 | 242 | 29 | 9 | 254 | 57 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 241 | 264 | 506 | 94 | 229 | 29 | 9 | 254 | 46 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 100 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 240 | 261 | 501 | 93 | 227 | 29 | 9 | 254 | 46 | -33 | +0 | -6 | +12 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2128 | 1888 | 307 | 77 | 1 | 39 | 193 | 732 | 25 | 18 | 3 | 163 | 249 | 266 | 516 | 104 | 237 | 34 | 9 | 236 | 46 | -19 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 94 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 224 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 104 | 238 | 34 | 9 | 236 | 46 | -33 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARound Rock Express · 350 PAwOBA .280 → .217 (−63)K% 25.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×0.992 | 14.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×0.992 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .280 → .217; ISO .145 → .105; BABIP .238 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 322 PAwOBA .290 → .241 (−49)K% 27.3% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.33% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×1.003 | 18.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×1.003 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×1.003 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.24% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .290 → .241; ISO .110 → .095; BABIP .280 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 71 PAwOBA .379 → .289 (−90)K% 33.8% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.80% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 11.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 6.68% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .379 → .289; ISO .233 → .179; BABIP .394 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 300 PAwOBA .357 → .269 (−88)K% 26.0% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.67% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.61% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 13.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.40% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 8.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.09% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.92% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .269; ISO .239 → .179; BABIP .281 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 147 PAwOBA .309 → .208 (−101)K% 36.7% → 49.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.73% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 49.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 4.07% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .208; ISO .124 → .094; BABIP .354 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 91 PAwOBA .269 → .205 (−64)K% 28.6% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 18.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .269 → .205; ISO .077 → .064; BABIP .275 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 19 PAwOBA .109 → .078 (−31)K% 52.6% → 64.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 52.63% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 64.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 11.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .109 → .078; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 202 PAwOBA .276 → .212 (−64)K% 26.2% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.24% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.61% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 11.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.61% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 10.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .276 → .212; ISO .104 → .084; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .