Alberti Chavez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 199 | .185/.231/.217 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — | .168/.206/.204 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AACIN | 201 | .223/.294/.279 | 1 | 1 | 41 | — | .201/.254/.250 |
| 2023 | 28 | INTLBravos de Mar… | 34 | .207/.233/.207 | 0 | 0 | 8 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs/Reds | — | 175 | 159 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 314 | 363 | 396 | 759 | 82 | 347 | 10 | 7 | 334 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 29 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 172 | 172 | 172 | 345 | 238 | 28 | 0 | 156 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 175 | 163 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 209 | 250 | 245 | 495 | 37 | 252 | 17 | 4 | 225 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 116 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 248 | 243 | 491 | 37 | 247 | 16 | 4 | 221 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 126 | 117 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 312 | 333 | 645 | 68 | 323 | 17 | 6 | 290 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 107 | 99 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 303 | 343 | 374 | 717 | 71 | 403 | 26 | 6 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 71 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 141 | 225 | 172 | 397 | 31 | 237 | 37 | 10 | 194 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 86 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 302 | 286 | 588 | 65 | 274 | 17 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 63 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 217 | 242 | 217 | 459 | 265 | 17 | 3 | 209 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 121 | 110 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 237 | 236 | 474 | 55 | 244 | 27 | 4 | 215 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 133 | 71 | 205 | 91 | 20 | 7 | 107 | -42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 93 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 296 | 596 | 74 | 266 | 20 | 9 | 267 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 108 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 290 | 265 | 555 | 41 | 297 | 23 | 6 | 257 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 34 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 207 | 440 | 231 | 18 | 3 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs/Reds | — | 175 | 163 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 215 | 251 | 270 | 521 | 55 | 233 | 13 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 29 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 276 | 230 | 38 | 0 | 126 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 175 | 166 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 163 | 192 | 187 | 379 | 24 | 213 | 24 | 2 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 116 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 195 | 193 | 387 | 28 | 209 | 22 | 3 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 126 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 224 | 233 | 457 | 42 | 254 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 107 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 228 | 257 | 287 | 544 | 59 | 333 | 37 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 71 | 67 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 119 | 169 | 149 | 318 | 30 | 224 | 45 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 63 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 210 | 197 | 406 | 250 | 21 | 2 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 121 | 111 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 153 | 203 | 207 | 411 | 54 | 227 | 37 | 3 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 93 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 71 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 108 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 243 | 220 | 463 | 30 | 275 | 30 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs/Reds | — | 175 | 163 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 215 | 251 | 270 | 521 | 55 | 243 | 13 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs/Reds | — | 175 | 159 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 314 | 363 | 396 | 759 | 82 | 347 | 10 | 7 | 334 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 204 | 195 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 159 | 184 | 179 | 364 | 21 | 217 | 26 | 2 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 204 | 192 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 203 | 239 | 234 | 473 | 31 | 250 | 18 | 3 | 215 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 116 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 195 | 193 | 387 | 28 | 217 | 22 | 3 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 116 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 248 | 243 | 491 | 37 | 247 | 16 | 4 | 221 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 126 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 224 | 233 | 457 | 42 | 258 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Reds | — | 126 | 117 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 312 | 333 | 645 | 68 | 323 | 17 | 6 | 290 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 107 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 228 | 257 | 287 | 544 | 59 | 355 | 37 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 107 | 99 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 303 | 343 | 374 | 717 | 71 | 403 | 26 | 6 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 157 | 148 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 115 | 166 | 142 | 307 | 27 | 224 | 46 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 157 | 141 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 184 | 268 | 234 | 502 | 50 | 260 | 26 | 10 | 238 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 186 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 172 | 210 | 204 | 415 | 32 | 250 | 32 | 3 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 199 | 184 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 185 | 231 | 217 | 448 | 33 | 239 | 24 | 4 | 205 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 184 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 207 | 259 | 255 | 514 | 49 | 280 | 27 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 201 | 179 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 294 | 279 | 574 | 56 | 283 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 34 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 207 | 440 | 231 | 18 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 34 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 207 | 440 | 231 | 18 | 3 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs/Reds | — | 175 | 165 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 212 | 251 | 267 | 518 | 55 | 233 | 13 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 204 | 196 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 158 | 184 | 179 | 363 | 20 | 215 | 26 | 2 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 116 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 162 | 195 | 189 | 384 | 27 | 209 | 22 | 3 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 126 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 224 | 233 | 457 | 42 | 254 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 107 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 257 | 284 | 541 | 59 | 333 | 37 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 157 | 147 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 116 | 166 | 143 | 308 | 27 | 224 | 46 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 199 | 188 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 170 | 210 | 202 | 412 | 32 | 235 | 32 | 3 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 186 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 259 | 253 | 512 | 48 | 269 | 27 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1319 | 1235 | 223 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 369 | 9 | 27 | 19 | 181 | 218 | 218 | 436 | 37 | 250 | 28 | 4 | 187 | 13 | -137 | -2 | +0 | +5 | +29 | -10.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 109 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 182 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 179 | 216 | 213 | 430 | 34 | 249 | 28 | 4 | 187 | 13 | -67 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -5.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 108 PAwOBA .253 → .214 (−39)K% 23.1% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.15% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷0.949 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.66% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .253 → .214; ISO .041 → .031; BABIP .297 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALouisville Bats · 93 PAwOBA .270 → .246 (−23)K% 20.4% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.60% | ÷1.151 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 24.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 1.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .270 → .246; ISO .074 → .069; BABIP .266 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Daytona Tortugas · 121 PAwOBA .213 → .176 (−37)K% 27.3% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.035 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.13% | ÷0.994 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 20.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.088 | ×0.960 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.047 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.058 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .213 → .176; ISO .055 → .041; BABIP .244 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 63 PAwOBA .203 → .185 (−18)K% 17.5% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷1.030 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.17% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 2.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 24.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .203 → .185; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .265 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 71 PAwOBA .183 → .145 (−38)K% 36.6% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.62% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷1.095 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.399 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .183 → .145; ISO .031 → .027; BABIP .237 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKBillings Mustangs · 107 PAwOBA .315 → .225 (−90)K% 26.2% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 29.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .315 → .225; ISO .071 → .047; BABIP .403 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Reds · 126 PAwOBA .285 → .204 (−81)K% 17.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.987 | ×0.995 | 21.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×0.995 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×0.995 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .285 → .204; ISO .068 → .045; BABIP .323 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKBillings Mustangs · 116 PAwOBA .215 → .169 (−47)K% 15.5% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.008 | 2.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.047 | ×1.008 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.047 | ×1.008 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.047 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .215 → .169; ISO .037 → .028; BABIP .247 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .