Brayden Smith — OGILVIE

Brayden Smith2B Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION461 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP285

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	55	11	2	1	1	12	18	0	3	1	200	343	327	671	127	278	26	18	308	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	60	10	2	1	1	7	26	0	3	1	167	254	283	537	117	259	38	10	235	45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	60	10	2	1	1	7	26	0	3	1	167	254	283	537	117	273	38	10	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	55	11	2	1	1	12	18	0	3	1	200	343	327	671	127	278	26	18	308	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	61	10	2	1	1	7	26	0	3	1	164	254	279	532	115	259	38	10	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	61	10	2	1	1	7	26	0	3	1	164	254	279	532	115	259	38	10	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	STL	—	461	407	76	15	4	8	44	178	7	33	7	187	277	302	580	115	304	39	10	263	64	-20	+4	+0	+2	+10	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	STL	—	356	296	73	12	5	8	50	93	6	28	5	247	365	402	767	155	328	26	14	345	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	STL	—	105	95	24	7	1	3	9	34	1	5	2	253	324	442	766	189	362	32	9	339	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	STL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		286	33	11	269	68	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	STL	—	470	415	77	15	4	8	45	181	7	33	7	186	276	299	575	113	301	39	10	264	65	-20	+4	+0	+2	+10	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	34%	336	297	60	12	2	7	32	110	4	11	2	202	288	327	615	125	288	33	10	280	76	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	46%	410	363	74	14	3	9	39	130	5	13	3	204	290	333	623	129	289	32	10	286	80	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	52%	440	389	81	16	3	10	42	137	6	14	3	208	295	342	637	134	290	31	10	289	82	-9	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	54%	458	405	84	16	3	11	44	142	6	15	3	207	295	343	638	136	290	31	10	291	83	-9	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	54%	461	407	85	16	3	11	45	143	6	15	3	209	297	344	641	135	289	31	10	291	83	-9	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	54%	459	405	84	16	3	11	45	143	6	14	3	207	296	343	639	136	289	31	10	290	82	-10	+2	-1	+2	+10	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	449	396	82	16	3	10	44	141	6	13	3	207	296	338	634	131	288	31	10	288	81	-10	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	52%	439	387	79	15	3	10	44	139	5	11	3	204	294	336	629	132	286	32	10	285	79	-11	+1	-2	+2	+10	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	34%	115	102	20	4	1	2	11	38	1	4	1	196	281	314	594	118	287	33	10	267	76	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	46%	189	167	34	7	1	4	18	60	2	6	1	204	289	329	618	126	289	32	10	273	80	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	52%	227	200	42	8	2	5	22	71	3	7	2	210	298	345	643	135	289	31	10	277	82	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	54%	248	219	46	9	2	6	24	77	3	8	2	210	297	352	648	142	289	31	10	278	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	54%	250	221	47	9	2	6	24	78	3	8	2	213	298	353	651	140	288	31	10	278	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	54%	249	219	45	9	2	5	25	78	3	8	2	205	296	333	629	128	288	31	10	277	82	-5	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	238	209	43	8	2	5	24	75	3	7	2	206	297	335	632	129	287	32	10	275	81	-5	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	52%	230	202	41	8	1	5	23	73	3	6	1	203	294	327	621	124	285	32	10	273	79	-6	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1746	1539	318	62	13	38	171	550	21	54	13	207	295	338	633	131	292	32	10	275	80	-39	+6	-2	+6	+38	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	118	23	5	14	64	205	8	20	5	206	295	337	632	131	291	32	10	275	80	-15	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3529	3117	640	123	24	80	343	1114	44	109	24	205	293	337	630	132	289	32	10	287	80	-79	+12	-4	+12	+75	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	118	23	4	15	63	205	8	20	4	206	293	338	631	132	289	32	10	287	80	-15	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,905	43	57	208	292	341	+7	+5	2.1	2.1
/162	664	15	20	+2.4	+1.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brayden Smith (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	40→45	58→63	60	190/279/304	113	286	3	8	34%	10%	68	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Francisco Santana 2010 · A	22	43	42→50	57→55	43	212/261/324	112	266	9	13	24%	6%	63	-1.3	196/233/289	93	282	6	8	31%	4%	45	-2.7	161/180/254	93	230	6	6	32%	2%	13	-1.6
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→55	54→50	47	196/261/312	115	255	9	8	26%	8%	61	-1.5	190/272/302	112	268	10	14	30%	10%	64	-1.3	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	65	-1.2	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	56	-1.9	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	22	-1.2
✕Cody Rogers 2011 · A	22	39→41	47→45	56→50	41	201/264/334	133	273	15	14	31%	7%	68	-1.0	197/257/299	102	279	8	16	31%	6%	57	-1.8	190/251/284	94	271	7	18	31%	6%	49	-1.9
✕Bo Naylor 2022 · AA	22	33→43	45→55	54→50	39	176/236/295	119	259	13	11	36%	7%	49	-2.4	212/299/376	164	277	19	13	29%	10%	91	+0.7	213/305/387	174	267	21	12	27%	11%	94	+0.7
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	68	-1.0	224/272/334	110	313	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	234/286/330	96	304	9	3	25%	6%	72	-0.3
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→35	41→45	58→50	48	207/287/310	103	275	7	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	186/253/287	101	260	10	9	31%	7%	53	-2.1	169/236/259	90	237	10	7	31%	7%	38	-2.3
✕Jace Jung 2023 · A	22	44→42	39→50	50→40	50	208/292/300	92	296	6	7	29%	10%	71	-0.8	215/300/370	155	288	18	4	30%	10%	90	+0.6	208/298/364	156	272	18	3	29%	11%	86	+0.3
✕Tyler Frost 2018 · A	22	42→33	43→50	54→50	40	206/259/322	115	285	9	6	30%	6%	63	-1.4	186/244/308	122	299	13	7	40%	6%	55	-2.0	170/229/290	120	276	14	7	42%	6%	43	-2.2
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→41	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	67	-1.1	208/276/283	75	319	2	18	32%	8%	60	-1.6	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	217/293/305	88	307	6	13	29%	9%	72	-0.7	200/284/329	129	320	13	21	38%	10%	75	-0.5	189/285/327	138	300	14	26	38%	11%	72	-0.6
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	46→47	44→55	54→55	45	221/283/350	129	308	10	11	30%	8%	78	-0.3	210/262/317	107	334	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Chris Grayson 2013 · A	23	40→38	43→45	56→50	42	200/263/314	115	273	9	20	29%	7%	63	-1.4	197/262/295	98	268	7	15	28%	7%	58	-1.7	187/254/275	87	252	6	15	27%	7%	49	-1.6
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	47→50	53→55	46	189/281/323	135	287	14	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	211/290/332	121	325	11	16	35%	9%	78	-0.3	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→45	41→50	51→40	45	197/267/298	101	259	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	220/278/357	137	292	15	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	43	44→45	56→55	44	209/290/327	118	301	11	16	32%	8%	76	-0.4	195/268/294	99	299	9	12	35%	8%	61	-1.5	172/246/253	81	260	7	12	34%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Alex Glenn 2014 · A	23	41→42	48→55	55→50	42	209/276/353	144	286	15	11	31%	7%	77	-0.3	217/263/366	149	281	15	11	28%	5%	75	-0.5	215/257/366	151	272	15	10	27%	5%	69	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps