Brayden Smith — OGILVIE

Brayden Smith2B Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION301 act + 200 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .302 / .328

PA200

HR4

SB9

K%31

BB%11

BABIP285

ISO127

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT27

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	60	10	2	1	1	7	26	0	3	1	167	254	283	537	117	273	38	10	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	55	11	2	1	1	12	18	0	3	1	200	343	327	671	127	278	26	18	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	STL	—	301	258	50	8	4	6	35	108	5	23	4	194	302	326	628	132	299	36	12	276	69	-10	+3	+0	+1	+9	0.2
YTD	22	A	STL	—	301	246	61	9	5	7	47	76	5	23	4	248	379	411	790	163	325	25	16	355	130	+10	+3	+0	+1	+9	2.3
ROS	22	A	STL	0%	200	173	35	6	2	4	22	62	3	9	2	202	302	328	630	127	280	31	11	284	76	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
ROS	22	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		280	—	—	274	68	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	A	STL	—	301	259	50	8	4	6	35	108	5	23	4	193	302	324	626	131	297	36	12	276	69	-10	+3	+0	+1	+9	0.2
TOT	22	A	STL	—	501	431	85	14	6	10	57	170	8	32	6	197	302	327	629	130	293	34	11	279	72	-16	+4	+0	+2	+14	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	34%	554	483	100	17	5	12	59	165	7	17	3	207	302	337	640	130	282	30	11	289	79	-13	+2	+0	+2	+16	0.7
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	569	497	105	18	5	13	60	166	7	17	3	211	305	346	651	135	283	29	11	294	83	-11	+2	+0	+2	+16	1.0
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	574	501	106	19	4	13	61	165	7	17	3	212	306	343	649	132	284	29	11	296	85	-10	+2	+0	+2	+16	1.1
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	573	501	107	19	4	14	60	164	7	17	3	214	306	351	658	138	284	29	10	297	86	-9	+2	+0	+2	+16	1.1
2031	27	MLB	STL	54%	568	495	106	19	4	14	61	163	7	17	3	214	309	354	663	139	284	29	11	297	86	-9	+2	+0	+2	+16	1.1
2032	28	MLB	STL	54%	561	489	103	18	4	13	60	162	7	16	3	211	306	344	649	133	283	29	11	296	85	-10	+2	-1	+2	+16	1.0
2033	29	MLB	STL	53%	552	480	101	18	4	13	60	160	7	15	3	210	307	346	653	135	282	29	11	294	84	-10	+2	-1	+2	+16	0.8
2034	30	MLB	STL	52%	543	473	98	17	4	12	59	159	6	13	3	207	303	336	639	129	281	29	11	292	81	-11	+1	-2	+2	+15	0.5
2035	31	MLB	STL	56%	533	464	96	17	4	12	58	158	6	11	2	207	303	338	641	131	278	30	11	288	78	-13	+1	-3	+2	+15	0.3
2036	32	MLB	STL	59%	523	456	92	16	4	11	56	157	6	9	2	202	297	327	624	125	275	30	11	282	74	-15	+1	-4	+2	+15	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	STL	34%	190	166	34	6	2	4	20	57	2	6	1	205	298	337	635	133	281	30	11	280	72	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	263	230	48	8	2	6	28	77	3	8	2	209	303	339	642	130	283	29	11	285	76	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	296	259	55	10	2	7	31	85	4	9	2	212	306	347	654	135	284	29	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	311	271	57	10	2	7	33	89	4	9	2	210	305	339	645	129	284	29	11	288	79	-7	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.4
2031	27	MLB	STL	54%	308	268	56	10	2	7	33	88	4	9	2	209	305	340	644	131	284	29	11	288	79	-7	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.4
2032	28	MLB	STL	54%	304	264	56	10	2	7	33	88	4	9	2	212	309	345	654	133	283	29	11	287	78	-8	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.3
2033	29	MLB	STL	53%	293	255	53	9	2	7	32	85	4	8	2	208	306	341	647	133	282	29	11	285	77	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.2
2034	30	MLB	STL	52%	285	249	51	9	2	6	31	83	3	7	1	205	300	329	630	124	281	29	11	283	75	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.1
2035	31	MLB	STL	56%	301	261	54	9	2	7	33	89	4	6	1	207	305	337	643	130	278	30	11	279	72	-10	+1	-2	+1	+9	-0.1
2036	32	MLB	STL	59%	309	269	53	9	2	6	33	93	4	5	1	197	294	312	606	115	275	30	11	274	68	-11	+1	-2	+1	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2860	2493	517	90	20	64	307	834	36	76	16	207	303	337	640	129	281	29	11	284	75	-80	+9	-6	+10	+81	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	118	20	5	15	70	190	8	17	4	208	304	340	644	132	282	29	11	284	75	-18	+2	-1	+2	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	5818	5072	1059	186	45	132	623	1707	70	161	31	209	304	341	645	132	284	29	11	292	82	-121	+20	-10	+21	+165	7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	119	21	5	15	70	191	8	18	3	210	305	344	649	134	286	29	11	292	82	-14	+2	-1	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	68	55	11	2	1	1	12	18	0	3	1	200	343	327	671	127	278	26	18	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,017	68	79	210	301	342	+11	+6	4.0	3.7
	/162	664	15	17	210	301	342	+2.4	+1.3	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brayden Smith (OGILVIE)	22	22→27	40→45	58→63	66	197/302/327	130	293	10	32	34%	11%	72	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	86	+0.8	217/296/385	168	279	20	10	28%	9%	92	+1.2	213/294/385	172	258	21	8	26%	9%	88	+0.7
✕Francisco Santana 2010 · A	22	43	42→50	57→55	43	212/261/324	112	266	9	13	24%	6%	59	-1.1	198/235/292	94	282	7	8	31%	4%	39	-2.5	164/182/259	96	230	6	6	32%	2%	4	-1.5
✕Eddinson Paulino 2023 · A	21	42→39	47→45	55→50	44	211/280/363	152	291	13	14	31%	8%	78	+0.2	197/255/323	126	277	13	15	32%	6%	58	-1.2	180/237/301	121	250	13	15	33%	6%	41	-1.5
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	41→40	44→55	49→50	45	201/281/320	119	294	11	8	33%	9%	68	-0.5	192/266/342	150	282	16	11	36%	9%	67	-0.5	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Cody Rogers 2011 · A	22	39	47→40	56→50	42	202/265/336	134	274	15	14	31%	7%	65	-0.7	191/253/287	96	272	7	16	31%	6%	47	-1.9	181/244/268	87	259	6	18	31%	6%	36	-2.1
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2023 · A	22	47	42→45	57→55	50	224/306/337	113	303	7	21	27%	10%	82	+0.5	210/274/324	114	288	10	18	29%	8%	65	-0.7	193/262/293	100	274	11	19	32%	8%	49	-1.2
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Spencer Jones 2023 · A	22	48	45→55	56→55	43	235/298/363	128	318	13	19	29%	7%	85	+0.7	217/270/366	149	357	16	25	41%	6%	75	-0.0	210/278/395	185	354	23	23	44%	8%	83	+0.4
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Joe Winker 2012 · A	22	49→32	44→55	55→45	42	234/289/365	131	323	9	6	29%	6%	82	+0.5	198/245/313	115	278	10	6	31%	5%	50	-1.7	170/214/276	106	236	10	6	32%	4%	27	-2.6
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→37	43→60	54→50	48	193/272/304	111	262	10	14	29%	9%	60	-1.0	191/270/313	122	269	12	13	31%	9%	62	-0.9	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	78	+0.2	210/269/323	113	265	11	17	24%	7%	63	-0.8	202/247/302	100	249	8	18	22%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4