Player 829403 P FCL Rays
Age — —HP ROK peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST108
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP5
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
K: +0.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: -4.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +0.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+1STAMTotal WAR: -0.35 (15 IP)-0.4WAR
0.00.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026—ACharleston RiverDogs6610391022100%1.720.1%4.6%15.5%10.4%2.617.68-0.4
ROS—MLBTB11522521100%5.123.4%9.2%14.2%3.0%4.324.32+0.0
2026 Total—MLBTB——15611543——24.8%6.6%18.3%4.4%3.186.57-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBTB3320842083100%6.723.8%8.9%14.8%3.0%4.284.25+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career—661039824100%1.720.1%4.6%15.5%10.4%2.617.68-0.4
/ 200 IP—1161162007551553977100%1.720.1%4.6%15.5%10.4%2.617.68-5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 829403 (OGILVIE) —— 4.32 23.4%9.2%3.0%— — ——— — ———
Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 22.5%6.7%2.1%.289 3.78 20.9%13.1%225 +0.60 3.18 256 70
Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 26 SP- 3.92 24.5%9.5%3.1%.232 5.11 17.5%6.2%190 +1.19 3.92 233 65
Spencer Howard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 25 SP 3.82 24.5%11.3%2.5%.311 4.90 24.4%14.8%208 +1.08 2.29 484 59
Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP 25 SP- 3.48 21.7%7.3%2.4%.297 — ——— — 3.19 182 59
Tristan Beck R 2026 · 5.19 FIP 25 SP 5.19 18.2%10.9%4.1%.375 4.22 20.3%13.1%252 -0.97 3.52 473 59
Zak Kent R 2026 · 3.86 FIP 25 SP 3.86 21.4%7.5%2.9%.239 4.01 21.7%9.0%121 +0.15 3.23 354 58
Riley Thompson R 2027 · 5.29 FIP 26 SP 5.29 21.7%14.7%3.9%.289 5.20 18.4%6.0%189 -0.09 4.52 340 58
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP 25 SP 4.64 20.4%12.2%3.1%.283 4.15 18.9%11.0%79 -0.49 3.87 247 57
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 25 SP 4.39 23.0%10.5%3.5%.335 4.65 21.4%11.7%382 +0.26 3.67 509 57
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 — ——— — 4.42 102 56
DJ Myers R 2025 · 4.12 FIP 24 SP- 4.12 22.9%12.4%2.5%.375 — ——— — 3.47 257 56
Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP 25 SP 3.14 25.5%11.9%1.2%.303 4.30 21.1%10.5%53 +1.16 2.47 256 56
Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP 25 SP- 3.51 18.2%9.8%1.3%.285 4.69 16.5%5.1%59 +1.18 3.51 123 56
Denny Brady R 2025 · 3.85 FIP 24 SP 3.85 24.8%13.2%2.1%.450 — ——— — 3.19 160 55
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 25 SP 3.98 26.8%8.1%3.9%.325 — ——— — 3.63 209 54
Connor McCullough R 2026 · 5.20 FIP 25 SP 5.20 18.7%6.4%5.2%.217 3.62 20.6%12.2%64 -1.58 3.62 222 54
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 — ——— — 3.45 102 54
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.00 FIP 23 SP 4.00 28.0%14.1%2.7%.328 — ——— — 4.00 274 54
Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 26.3%11.9%2.6%.340 — ——— — 3.81 138 54
James Kaprielian R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 25 SP 4.07 20.9%6.9%3.4%.271 4.40 20.5%11.3%253 +0.33 3.03 446 54