Player 829403 — OGILVIE

Player 829403 P FCL Rays

Age — —HP ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINST106

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%23.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	—	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	6	10	39	10	2	2	100%	1.7	20.1%	4.6%	15.5%	10.4%	2.61	7.68	—
YTD	—	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	6	10	39	10	2	2	100%	1.7	20.1%	4.6%	15.5%	10.4%	2.61	7.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	—	ROK RAW	TB	5	5	7	27	8	1	2	100%	1.5	29.6%	3.7%	25.9%	7.4%	3.68	5.13	—
2026	—	A RAW	TB	1	1	3	12	2	1	0	100%	3.0	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	3	3	20	84	20	7	3	100%	6.7	23.7%	8.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.22	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.7%	8.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.22	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		6	6	10	39	8	2	4	100%	1.7	20.1%	4.6%	15.5%	10.4%	2.61	7.68	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	116	200	755	152	35	78	100%	1.7	20.1%	4.6%	15.5%	10.4%	2.61	7.68	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Player 829403 (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.3%	8.8%	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	71
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	65
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	60
Braxton Ashcraft R 2023 · 3.23 FIP	23	SP	3.23	21.7%	6.0%	2.2%	.317	3.38	23.9%	18.1%	356	+0.15	3.15	459	59
Tristan Beck R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP	5.00	18.2%	10.9%	3.7%	.375	4.23	20.1%	13.1%	252	-0.77	3.48	495	59
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.85	23.7%	14.8%	208	+1.09	2.33	484	58
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	58
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	58
Zak Kent R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	20.2%	6.4%	3.0%	.239	3.93	20.8%	10.3%	145	+0.05	3.19	378	57
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.08	17.3%	6.7%	189	-0.24	4.53	340	57
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	56
CJ Van Eyk R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP	5.26	16.5%	10.3%	4.1%	.264	4.73	15.1%	6.6%	326	-0.53	4.17	438	56
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	56
DJ Myers R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	22.9%	12.4%	2.4%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	257	56
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	56
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	55
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	55
Denny Brady R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	24.8%	13.2%	2.6%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	160	54
James Kaprielian R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	25	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.271	4.50	20.5%	11.3%	253	+0.33	2.80	446	54
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	54