Yordanis Guerra

P FCL Phillies

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#976ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Phillies …	12	3	33	3.03	3.22	24.8%	11.3%	—	K 16.9% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.75
2026	19	MIX2 levels	20	13	59	5.52	2.91	24.6%	13.6%	—	K 17.2% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	20	MLBPHI	—	—	0	5.35	5.35	18.7%	15.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPHI	4	4	22	5.20	5.10	19.9%	13.4%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBPHI	6	6	32	4.92	4.77	21.2%	11.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRaúl Alcantara (age 20) · Brayan Restituyo (age 20) · Carlos Meza (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%18.7%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	2.3%	3.03	4.75	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	2.3%	3.03	4.75	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	1.4%	3.03	3.22	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	59	280	69	38	1	65%	2.9	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	0.5%	5.52	4.01	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	59	280	69	38	1	65%	2.9	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	0.5%	5.52	4.01	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	59	280	69	38	1	65%	2.9	24.6%	13.6%	11.1%	0.4%	5.52	2.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	15.3%	3.4%	2.8%	5.35	5.35	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	44	185	37	25	5	100%	5.5	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	2.7%	5.09	4.99	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	44	185	39	22	5	100%	5.5	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.81	4.66	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	44	186	41	20	5	100%	5.5	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.59	4.45	+0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	44	188	43	19	5	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.2%	12.5%	2.6%	4.41	4.30	+0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	44	186	43	18	5	100%	5.5	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.6%	4.29	4.21	+0.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	44	187	43	18	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.19	+0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	43	183	42	18	5	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.22	+0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	22	93	18	12	3	100%	5.5	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.20	5.10	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	32	135	29	16	4	100%	5.3	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.92	4.77	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	37	156	34	17	4	100%	5.3	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.56	+0.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	38	17	5	100%	5.7	22.6%	10.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.40	+0.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	39	16	5	100%	5.7	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.31	+0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	41	173	40	17	5	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.29	+0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	41	173	40	17	5	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.33	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	253	1069	239	113	30	100%	5.6	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.11	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	189	89	24	100%	5.6	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		32	16	91	421	72	67	5	50%	2.9	17.1%	15.8%	1.3%	1.1%	4.63	4.26	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	35	200	922	157	146	10	50%	2.9	17.1%	15.8%	1.3%	1.1%	4.63	4.26	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 37 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.64 (+1.23)K% 29.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.07%	—	×0.680	19.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.250	17.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 22 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.60 (+0.83)K% 17.6% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.59%	—	×0.740	13.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.180	15.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 33 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.75 (+1.54)K% 24.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.680	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.250	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.849	×1.400	2.34%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yordanis Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	18.7%	15.3%	2.8%	—	4.70	21.1%	9.0%	132	-0.65	—	—	—
Raúl Alcantara L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	19.6%	12.8%	2.3%	.295	4.50	19.0%	4.2%	229	+0.19	3.82	396	80
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	80
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	79
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	79
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	79
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	79
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	79
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	78
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	77
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	77
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	77
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	77
Steven Pérez L 2021 · 5.07 FIP	20	SW	5.07	18.3%	11.4%	3.8%	.305	4.81	20.2%	5.6%	116	-0.26	3.71	358	77
Ramon Perez L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.315	4.33	23.0%	6.2%	92	+0.18	3.08	199	76
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	76
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	76
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	76
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	76
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	43	21.8%	11.2%	1.03	4.61
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*