Yordanis Guerra — OGILVIE

Yordanis Guerra P FCL Phillies

Age 19 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	2.3%	3.03	4.75	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	2.3%	3.03	4.75	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	3	33	141	35	16	2	25%	2.7	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	1.4%	3.03	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	20	13	59	280	69	38	1	65%	2.9	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	0.5%	5.52	4.01	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	20	13	59	280	69	38	1	65%	2.9	17.2%	16.6%	0.6%	0.5%	5.52	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PHI	14	7	37	172	50	24	0	50%	2.6	29.1%	14.0%	15.1%	0.0%	5.15	2.41	—
2026	19	A RAW	PHI	6	6	22	108	19	14	1	100%	3.7	17.6%	13.0%	4.6%	0.9%	6.14	3.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	60	255	55	30	7	100%	5.5	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.72	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	63	268	59	29	8	100%	5.3	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.53	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	67	281	65	28	8	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.8%	4.44	4.31	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	69	292	70	27	8	100%	5.3	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.27	4.16	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	71	299	73	27	8	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.9%	15.5%	2.7%	4.14	4.05	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	72	303	75	26	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	2.7%	4.05	3.98	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	72	303	76	26	8	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.7%	16.4%	2.7%	4.00	3.96	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	71	298	75	26	8	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.00	4.00	+0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	289	72	26	8	100%	6.2	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	2.9%	4.05	4.08	+0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	65	276	68	25	8	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.21	+0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	62	260	63	25	8	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.39	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	30	127	27	15	4	100%	5.0	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	3.1%	4.92	4.84	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	46	194	43	21	6	100%	5.1	22.2%	10.7%	11.5%	3.1%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	56	236	55	23	7	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.42	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	62	262	63	24	8	100%	5.6	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.27	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	65	274	67	25	8	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.9%	15.5%	2.9%	4.25	4.16	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	67	283	70	25	8	100%	6.1	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.16	4.09	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	68	287	72	25	8	100%	6.2	25.0%	8.7%	16.4%	2.9%	4.11	4.07	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	67	283	71	25	8	100%	6.1	25.0%	8.8%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.11	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	68	24	8	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	3.1%	4.16	4.19	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	62	262	65	24	8	100%	6.2	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	3.2%	4.27	4.33	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	58	245	60	23	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	3.5%	4.43	4.52	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	647	2733	662	254	84	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.1%	4.33	3.91	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	205	78	26	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.1%	4.33	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		32	16	91	421	72	67	5	50%	2.9	17.1%	15.8%	1.3%	1.1%	4.63	4.26	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	35	200	922	157	146	10	50%	2.9	17.1%	15.8%	1.3%	1.1%	4.63	4.26	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yordanis Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	21.1%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.51	22.4%	11.7%	190	-0.46	—	—	—
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	81
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	80
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	79
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	78
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	78
Hector Acosta L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	19	SP-	5.05	15.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.313	5.38	6.6%	-2.9%	47	+0.33	3.57	123	76
Victor Cabreja L 2022 · 3.79 FIP	20	SW	3.79	17.0%	13.0%	0.9%	.348	4.42	11.2%	1.7%	146	+0.63	3.79	254	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	75
Adam Macko L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	18	SW	3.88	22.4%	14.6%	1.5%	.353	3.64	27.2%	12.4%	72	-0.24	3.40	403	74
Kelvin Rosario L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	16	SP-	4.34	16.3%	15.4%	1.2%	.287	5.81	16.2%	0.7%	93	+1.47	4.34	126	74
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	74
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	74
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	73
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	73
Luis Viloria L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	19	SW	4.18	14.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.255	4.83	22.6%	4.3%	39	+0.65	3.16	101	73
Edgardo Ibarra L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	19	SW	5.37	16.2%	16.6%	2.8%	.250	5.26	14.4%	-5.7%	63	-0.11	5.26	142	73
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	73
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	73
Frankeli Arias L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	19	SW	3.87	16.9%	7.5%	2.3%	.281	5.03	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.16	3.87	298	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	63	24.0%	9.5%	1.11	4.26
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59