Alex Barr — OGILVIE

Alex Barr P Stockton Ports

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%21.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	OAK	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.9%	7.36	5.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	64	270	59	33	8	100%	5.3	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.81	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	67	284	63	31	8	100%	5.6	22.3%	11.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.61	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	71	298	69	30	9	100%	5.4	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.50	4.38	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	73	309	74	29	9	100%	5.6	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.21	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	75	317	78	29	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.1%	15.4%	2.8%	4.19	4.10	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	76	320	80	28	9	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.9%	16.1%	2.8%	4.09	4.03	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	76	320	81	28	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.01	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	75	316	79	28	9	100%	6.2	25.1%	8.9%	16.2%	2.8%	4.04	4.05	+0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	73	307	77	28	9	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.13	+0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	69	293	72	27	9	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.19	4.26	+0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	65	275	67	26	9	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.44	+0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	61	256	61	25	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.9%	14.1%	3.5%	4.52	4.64	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	31	131	29	16	4	100%	5.2	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.85	4.77	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	49	207	46	23	6	100%	5.4	22.3%	11.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.57	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	60	253	59	26	7	100%	5.5	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.34	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	66	279	67	26	8	100%	5.5	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.29	4.17	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	69	291	72	27	8	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.1%	15.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.06	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	75	27	8	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.9%	16.1%	2.7%	4.05	3.99	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	72	304	76	27	8	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.97	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	71	300	75	27	8	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.9%	16.2%	2.8%	4.00	4.01	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	69	291	73	26	8	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	2.9%	4.05	4.09	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	69	26	8	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.22	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	62	262	64	25	8	100%	6.2	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	58	245	59	24	8	100%	5.8	24.0%	9.9%	14.1%	3.4%	4.47	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	132	743	3138	762	299	91	100%	5.6	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.9%	4.24	3.84	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	205	80	24	100%	5.6	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.9%	4.24	3.84	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		21	16	62	309	49	54	16	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	51	200	991	157	174	50	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Barr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	21.2%	13.6%	3.1%	—	4.59	22.5%	11.4%	202	-0.50	—	—	—
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	83
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	82
Ethan Lindow L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.95	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.38	2.95	435	80
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	79
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	78
Jesus Gomez L 2019 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	19.3%	12.4%	3.8%	.275	4.40	24.3%	9.8%	23	-0.72	4.22	121	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	77
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	77
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	77
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	77
Dax Fulton L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	18.6%	13.2%	2.3%	.311	3.78	22.8%	12.3%	151	-0.70	3.52	416	76
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	76
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	75
Kelvin Rosario L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	16	SP-	4.34	16.3%	15.4%	1.2%	.287	5.81	16.2%	0.7%	93	+1.47	4.34	126	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	609	75
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	75
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Gabe Morales L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	19.3%	21.0%	1.8%	.313	4.23	22.9%	8.7%	124	-0.89	2.92	268	73
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	68	24.0%	9.8%	1.15	4.35
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59