Alex Barr

P Stockton Ports

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1503ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	AOAK	21	16	62	7.36	5.70	21.4%	14.9%	—	K 15.8% · BB 17.6% · FIP 6.76
2027PROJ	20	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.86	5.86	18.0%	16.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBOAK	4	4	22	5.49	5.37	19.4%	14.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBOAK	6	6	33	5.16	4.99	20.8%	12.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBrandon Herbold (age 19) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Nate Savino (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%18.0%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%1.5%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	—
2026	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	—
2026	19	A RAW	Stockton Ports	21	16	62	309	66	46	12	76%	3.0	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.9%	7.36	5.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	16.4%	1.5%	3.3%	5.86	5.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	45	190	37	27	6	100%	5.6	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	3.2%	5.53	5.41	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	45	190	40	24	6	100%	5.6	20.8%	12.5%	8.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.03	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	45	190	41	22	6	100%	5.6	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.93	4.78	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	46	193	43	20	6	100%	5.7	22.3%	10.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.73	4.61	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	45	191	43	19	6	100%	5.7	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.51	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	46	193	44	19	6	100%	5.7	22.9%	10.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.49	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	44	188	43	19	6	100%	6.4	22.8%	10.1%	12.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	42	179	41	18	6	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.61	+0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	22	93	18	13	3	100%	5.5	19.4%	14.2%	5.2%	3.1%	5.49	5.37	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	33	139	29	17	4	100%	5.5	20.8%	12.5%	8.3%	3.1%	5.16	4.99	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	38	160	35	18	5	100%	5.4	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.74	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	39	18	5	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.5%	11.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.57	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	42	177	40	18	5	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.47	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	43	182	41	18	5	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	42	177	41	18	5	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.49	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	38	17	5	100%	5.7	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.1%	4.54	4.57	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	300	1268	280	138	38	100%	5.7	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.27	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	187	92	25	100%	5.6	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		21	16	62	309	49	54	16	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	51	200	991	157	174	50	76%	3.0	15.8%	17.6%	-1.8%	5.0%	7.36	6.76	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AStockton Ports · 62 IPFIP 5.31 → 6.76 (+1.45)K% 21.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.36%	—	×0.740	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.180	17.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.31 → 6.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Barr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	18.0%	16.4%	3.3%	—	5.07	20.6%	8.0%	135	-0.79	—	—	—
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	83
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	80
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	80
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	80
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	79
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	79
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	78
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	78
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	78
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	77
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	77
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	76
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	76
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	76
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	76
Luis Cesar L 2024 · 6.24 FIP	20	SP	6.24	13.2%	19.8%	3.2%	.163	5.28	15.6%	-9.7%	44	-0.96	4.84	131	75
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	74
Wander Cabrera L 2018 · 6.97 FIP	20	SP-	6.97	11.9%	16.7%	5.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	135	74
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	74
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	45	21.5%	11.7%	1.21	4.94
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*