Jesus Montiel — OGILVIE

Jesus Montiel P FCL Phillies

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%21.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	17.8%	9.9%	7.8%	2.8%	6.23	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	17.8%	9.9%	7.8%	2.8%	6.23	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	26.1%	8.0%	18.2%	1.7%	6.23	2.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	—	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	—	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PHI	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	37	156	34	14	5	100%	4.6	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	18	76	16	7	2	100%	4.5	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	17	7	2	100%	4.5	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.05	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	187	77	22	100%	4.6	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		14	11	44	198	35	20	5	79%	3.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.5%	2.5%	5.93	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	50	200	900	160	93	22	79%	3.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.5%	2.5%	5.93	4.28	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Montiel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.1%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.43	21.7%	12.4%	37	-0.15	—	—	—
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	88
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	87
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	85
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	84
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	84
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	82
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	81
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	81
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.18	573	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	81
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	81
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	80
Donal Montas R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	20	SP-	5.29	17.3%	9.1%	4.5%	.217	5.03	10.2%	-3.8%	91	-0.26	4.10	156	80
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	79
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	79
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.5%	9.5%	1.14	4.52
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58