Dean Livingston

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX3 levels	18	17	82	3.31	3.46	23.6%	8.2%	—	K 16.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	20	MLBARI	19	19	90	4.97	4.97	18.3%	10.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBARI	13	13	63	4.70	4.62	20.0%	9.8%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBARI	25	25	125	4.48	4.36	21.7%	9.2%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$5M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsWill Sanders (age 22) · Victor Lizarraga (age 20) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%18.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4055

CMD2045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$7M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$6M	+$2M
2036	Arb-3	$10M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$27M		$41M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	17	82	330	78	27	8	94%	4.5	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	2.4%	3.31	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	19	19	90	380	69	40	12	100%	4.7	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	3.1%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	128	543	108	53	17	100%	4.9	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.71	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	33	33	171	722	156	66	22	100%	5.2	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.45	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	33	33	175	739	168	65	22	100%	5.3	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.29	+1.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	32	32	179	757	177	65	22	100%	5.6	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	31	31	180	760	181	64	22	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.13	+1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	30	30	180	760	182	64	22	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+1.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	30	30	177	749	179	63	22	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.14	4.15	+1.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	172	726	173	63	22	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.23	+1.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	164	694	164	61	22	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.36	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	154	652	152	60	22	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.54	+0.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	144	608	139	58	22	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.6%	4.62	4.74	+0.3
2039	32	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	133	562	126	56	22	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	122	516	113	53	21	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	4.1%	5.06	5.22	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	63	266	53	26	8	100%	4.8	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.62	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	25	25	125	528	114	49	15	100%	5.0	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.36	+0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	148	625	142	55	17	100%	5.3	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	29	29	160	676	158	58	19	100%	5.5	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	165	697	166	59	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.10	4.04	+1.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	168	709	170	60	19	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	168	709	170	60	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.8%	4.05	4.06	+1.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	ARI	27	27	163	688	164	59	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	ARI	26	26	156	659	155	58	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.19	4.26	+1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	147	621	144	57	20	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.1%	3.2%	4.34	4.44	+0.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	137	578	132	55	20	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	127	536	120	53	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.7%	4.71	4.85	-0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	116	490	107	51	19	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.93	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	319	1842	7778	1796	699	235	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+21.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	76	26	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		18	17	82	330	55	33	12	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	+11.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	808	133	82	29	94%	4.5	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.5%	3.31	4.93	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dean Livingston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	18.3%	10.5%	3.1%	—	4.46	21.6%	12.4%	474	-0.51	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	88
Victor Lizarraga R 2024 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP	4.18	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.61	15.1%	0.9%	179	+1.43	3.82	494	88
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	88
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	87
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	87
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	87
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	86
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	85
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	85
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	85
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	579	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	155	22.8%	9.1%	1.23	4.45
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Steve Renko ('69-'83, 22 WAR*)	12.5	166	19.9%*	9.2%*	1.29*	4.37*
Kevin Gross ('83-'97, 21 WAR*)	12.4	166	20.4%*	9.0%*	1.11*	4.48*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14