Dax Kilby

SS Tampa Tarpons

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTFG #107MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP53ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ANYY	81	.353/.457/.441	0	16	120	—	.310/.395/.394
2026	19	ANYY	154	.261/.448/.435	4	12	105	—	.214/.357/.341
2026	19	INTLSalt River Ra…	47	.293/.356/.634	2	4	160	—
2027PROJ4% MLB	20	MLBNYY	6	.227/.319/.363	0	0	93	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	21	MLBNYY	108	.231/.323/.375	3	3	97	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBNYY	219	.234/.326/.385	6	7	99	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$8M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

BB%95

Speed92

Chase%85

Max EV68

K%68

Z-Con%64

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 73%

CompsEvan Carter (age 20) · Harry Ford (age 20) · Addison Russell (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .319 / .363

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%17

BABIP298

ISO118

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 58 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT58

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+1.4	$7M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$6M	+$1.0M
Totals		$27M		$42M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	154	115	30	4	2	4	39	31	0	12	3	261	448	435	883	174	325	20	25	403	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	47	41	12	6	1	2	3	5	1	4	0	293	356	634	990	341	278	11	6	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	154	126	27	3	2	3	28	42	0	12	3	214	357	341	698	127	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	393	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	68	24	2	2	0	13	11	0	16	1	353	457	441	898	88	421	14	16	407	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	201	162	35	4	2	4	36	55	1	16	3	216	362	340	701	123	295	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	201	156	42	10	3	6	42	36	1	16	3	269	427	487	914	218	310	18	21	403	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	201	162	35	4	2	4	36	55	1	16	3	216	362	340	701	123	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	81	71	22	2	2	0	10	15	0	16	1	310	395	394	789	85	385	19	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	201	162	35	4	2	4	36	55	1	16	3	216	362	340	701	123	301	27	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	4%	264	230	52	8	2	6	30	72	2	8	1	225	318	357	675	131	298	27	11	305	93	-2	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	4%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	227	319	363	682	136	298	33	17	308	93	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	45%	240	209	48	7	2	6	27	64	2	7	1	229	322	368	690	139	298	27	11	311	97	-1	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	356	311	72	11	3	9	39	93	3	11	2	232	324	377	701	145	299	26	11	315	99	-0	+1	-2	+4	+8	1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	68%	432	378	89	14	4	12	48	112	3	13	2	235	326	384	710	149	299	26	11	318	102	+1	+2	-1	+5	+9	1.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	483	423	100	16	4	13	53	124	4	15	3	237	327	389	716	152	300	26	11	321	103	+2	+2	-1	+5	+10	1.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	511	447	107	17	4	15	55	130	4	15	3	238	327	392	720	155	299	25	11	322	104	+2	+2	-1	+5	+11	2.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	71%	527	461	110	18	4	15	57	134	4	16	3	238	327	393	721	155	299	25	11	322	104	+3	+2	-1	+6	+11	2.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	532	465	110	18	4	15	58	136	4	15	3	237	326	391	717	154	299	26	11	321	103	+2	+2	-1	+6	+12	2.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	69%	531	464	110	18	4	15	58	137	4	13	3	235	325	386	711	151	298	26	11	318	102	+1	+1	-2	+6	+12	1.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	67%	523	458	107	17	4	14	56	136	4	11	2	233	322	380	702	147	297	26	11	315	99	-0	+1	-3	+6	+11	1.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	66%	514	451	103	16	4	13	55	136	3	8	2	230	319	373	691	142	296	26	11	311	96	-2	+1	-3	+6	+11	1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	501	440	100	16	4	12	53	134	3	4	1	226	314	363	677	137	293	27	11	305	93	-4	+0	-4	+5	+11	0.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	483	426	94	15	3	11	51	132	3	1	1	221	308	351	659	130	289	27	11	298	88	-7	-0	-5	+5	+10	0.4
2040	33	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	454	402	87	13	3	10	47	126	2	1	1	215	301	337	638	121	285	28	10	289	82	-10	-0	-5	+5	+10	-0.0
2041	34	MLB MLE	NYY	66%	408	362	76	11	3	8	41	117	2	0	0	208	292	319	612	112	279	29	10	279	75	-12	+0	-6	+4	+9	-0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	45%	108	94	22	3	1	3	12	29	1	3	1	231	323	375	698	144	299	27	11	314	97	-0	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	219	191	45	7	2	6	24	57	2	7	1	234	326	385	710	151	299	26	11	318	99	-0	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	68%	295	259	61	9	3	8	32	76	2	9	2	237	327	392	719	155	300	26	11	322	102	+1	+1	-1	+3	+6	1.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	337	294	71	11	3	10	37	86	3	10	2	239	329	397	726	159	300	26	11	324	103	+1	+1	-1	+4	+7	1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	359	314	76	12	3	11	39	91	3	11	2	240	329	401	729	161	300	25	11	326	104	+2	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	71%	372	326	77	12	3	11	40	95	3	11	2	240	329	401	730	162	300	26	11	326	104	+2	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	369	323	77	12	3	11	40	94	3	11	2	239	328	399	727	160	299	25	11	325	103	+1	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	69%	365	319	76	12	3	11	40	94	3	9	2	237	326	394	720	157	299	26	11	322	102	+1	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	67%	350	307	72	11	3	10	38	91	2	7	1	235	323	388	711	153	297	26	11	318	99	-0	+1	-2	+4	+8	1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	66%	338	297	69	11	3	9	36	89	2	5	1	232	320	380	700	148	296	26	11	314	96	-1	+1	-2	+4	+7	0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	326	286	65	10	2	9	35	87	2	3	1	228	315	370	685	142	293	27	11	308	93	-3	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	313	275	61	9	2	8	33	85	2	0	1	223	310	358	667	135	290	27	11	301	88	-5	-0	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2040	33	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	319	281	61	9	2	7	33	89	2	0	0	217	302	343	645	126	285	28	10	292	82	-7	+0	-4	+3	+7	-0.0
2041	34	MLB CTX	NYY	66%	268	238	50	7	2	6	27	77	1	0	0	209	294	325	618	116	279	29	10	281	75	-8	+0	-4	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4338	3804	883	135	35	120	466	1140	31	86	18	232	321	381	702	149	297	26	11	314	97	-17	+10	-24	+46	+94	11.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	132	20	5	18	70	171	5	13	3	232	321	379	700	147	296	26	11	314	97	-3	+1	-4	+7	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6922	6057	1398	217	55	175	760	1820	47	166	32	231	321	371	693	141	298	26	11	312	97	-28	+16	-37	+71	+144	17.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	130	20	5	16	71	171	4	16	3	228	318	366	683	137	296	26	11	312	97	-3	+2	-4	+7	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Lyn Lary'29-'40 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,424 PA	8.2	5,424	38	162	241*	335*	368*	+54	-2	19.2	20.4
/162	664	5	20	+6.6	-0.2	2.4	pk7: 22
#2Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	7.3	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.7	18.1
/162	664	12	17	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
#3Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#4Heinie Wagner'02-'18 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,771 PA	5.7	3,771	10	144	251*	324*	410*	+36	-7	15.0	14.9
/162	664	2	25	+6.4	-1.3	2.6	pk7: 15
#5Jack Barry'08-'19 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,902 PA	7.4	4,902	10	153	242*	319*	374*	+43	-16	14.0	14.3
/162	664	1	21	+5.8	-2.2	1.9	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.5	4,344	113	87	231	316	375	+45	-11	15.7	13.5
/162	664	17	13	+6.8	-1.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dax Kilby (OGILVIE)	20	42→58	40→52	58	52	223/315/353	130	298	3	4	27%	11%	93	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	48→55	46→50	55	52	233/315/374	141	290	12	21	23%	10%	96	+1.0	239/326/389	150	309	14	21	25%	10%	103	+1.6	237/330/391	154	306	15	24	25%	10%	104	+0.9
✕Harry Ford 2023 · A	20	48→53	46→45	53→55	51	224/330/360	136	328	13	14	32%	11%	99	+1.3	225/334/351	126	300	12	18	26%	12%	99	+1.3	226/338/346	120	294	12	19	24%	12%	96	+0.9
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	49→52	50→55	58→50	46	241/313/409	168	325	15	16	29%	8%	103	+1.6	243/305/404	161	309	18	9	26%	7%	99	+1.3	236/301/401	165	290	19	5	25%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Robert Hassell III 2022 · A	20	53→55	45	55	47	251/318/381	130	337	11	19	28%	9%	98	+1.2	229/292/330	101	327	9	16	30%	8%	77	-0.3	239/292/323	84	319	8	19	26%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Marcelo Mayer 2023 · A	20	48→47	48→50	55→50	46	225/305/375	150	338	15	13	35%	10%	93	+0.8	229/286/376	147	307	16	12	29%	7%	86	+0.3	240/295/371	130	302	14	9	24%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	51→52	45	49→50	47	249/304/371	122	299	13	11	21%	7%	91	+0.6	242/328/367	125	291	10	13	19%	10%	99	+1.3	240/330/363	124	285	10	12	18%	10%	97	+1.0
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	50→53	47→55	53→45	45	241/305/384	143	332	14	8	30%	8%	95	+0.9	257/313/415	158	319	18	5	24%	7%	105	+1.7	260/320/417	157	316	18	4	23%	8%	107	+1.6
✕Carlos Jorge 2024 · A	20	45→55	46→45	60	45	219/294/354	135	303	12	25	30%	8%	84	+0.1	215/278/322	107	304	10	27	30%	7%	70	-0.8	221/282/318	97	305	9	33	29%	7%	67	-0.8
●Luke Keaschall 2024 · A	21	49→58	44→45	56→55	46	237/309/366	129	311	10	16	26%	8%	92	+0.7	257/344/386	129	308	12	23	20%	9%	110	+2.1	267/360/392	125	312	12	25	17%	9%	117	+2.0
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	46→54	46→65	54→50	43	228/283/366	137	295	13	16	27%	6%	82	-0.0	231/299/394	163	278	19	14	23%	8%	95	+1.0	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
●Moisés Ballesteros 2024 · AA	20	46→56	46→50	49→40	50	228/297/354	126	275	14	5	22%	9%	84	+0.2	255/315/385	130	307	14	4	21%	8%	99	+1.2	258/320/384	126	307	14	3	20%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Alen Hanson 2013 · A	20	49→53	46→50	56→60	45	241/296/389	148	299	11	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7	244/285/377	133	308	10	22	23%	5%	84	+0.2	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Luke Adams 2024 · A	20	42→39	44→50	53→55	51	201/318/323	122	288	11	21	31%	11%	88	+0.4	207/347/351	144	268	15	19	27%	12%	106	+1.8	200/355/358	159	246	17	19	24%	12%	108	+1.1
●Rougned Odor 2014 · AA	20	51→56	44→60	52→50	41	248/292/374	126	301	10	18	21%	4%	87	+0.4	254/295/415	161	291	17	12	19%	4%	98	+1.2	256/295/439	183	284	21	10	18%	4%	103	+1.5
✕Walker Jenkins 2024 · A	19	53	45→50	53→55	45	257/305/391	134	308	11	11	20%	6%	95	+1.0	245/323/376	131	300	11	17	21%	9%	99	+1.3	248/332/390	141	301	14	20	21%	10%	103	+1.0
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	49→51	43→60	53→50	45	240/293/355	115	293	11	17	22%	6%	83	+0.1	213/260/318	105	291	9	15	29%	5%	62	-1.4	262/323/475	213	304	29	14	24%	8%	123	+1.4
✕Termarr Johnson 2024 · A	20	44→53	49→45	50→55	55	213/330/357	143	314	17	9	34%	14%	99	+1.2	217/304/333	116	293	13	16	28%	10%	83	+0.1	212/296/315	103	281	11	21	27%	10%	74	-0.5
✕Jett Williams 2024 · AA	20	44→48	45→50	60→55	54	209/324/338	129	296	11	25	30%	12%	93	+0.8	216/310/345	129	299	10	23	28%	11%	88	+0.4	214/300/348	134	288	11	26	27%	10%	82	+0.0

Dax Kilby

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps