Michael Carpenter
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 18 | 17 | 54 | 244 | 58 | 23 | 4 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 17 | 54 | 244 | 43 | 27 | 6 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.34 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 63 | 200 | 909 | 160 | 101 | 22 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Carpenter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.20 | 23.4% | 14.5% | 171 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 93 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 92 |
| Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 90 |
| Ryne Slack L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 89 |
| Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 89 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 88 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 88 |
| Dante Biasi L 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 88 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.07 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 141 | 88 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 88 |
| Chase Watkins L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 88 |
| Bailey Horn L 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.96 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .300 | 4.72 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.24 | 3.96 | 265 | 87 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 87 |
| Michael Johnson L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 87 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.41 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.91 | 4.41 | 128 | 87 |
| Will Mabrey L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.26 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .256 | 4.29 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 46 | +0.03 | 4.26 | 112 | 86 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 86 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.36 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 170 | -0.15 | 3.87 | 236 | 86 |
| Cam Alldred L 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.37 | 3.70 | 332 | 86 |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $11M | +$7M | ||