Michael Carpenter
P
FCL Twins
Age 22
LHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.17
FIP5.17
K%17.3%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%5.3%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 18 | 17 | 54 | 244 | 58 | 23 | 4 | 94% | 3.0 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.49 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 18 | 17 | 54 | 244 | 58 | 23 | 4 | 94% | 3.0 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 1.6% | 4.70 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 50% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 17.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.18 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 56 | 244 | 43 | 34 | 7 | — | — | 17.8% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.95 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 212 | 893 | 178 | 93 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.34 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 88 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 19 | 57 | 266 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 86% | 2.6 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.49 | 4.55 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 66 | 200 | 928 | 167 | 119 | 23 | 86% | 2.6 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.49 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Carpenter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 167 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Bailey Horn L 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 82 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 81 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 80 |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 77 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 76 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.29 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 1.6% | .375 | 4.40 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 273 | +0.11 | 3.65 | 328 | 76 |
| Jake Miller L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.2% | .345 | 3.04 | 22.5% | 16.3% | 99 | -2.15 | 3.01 | 143 | 76 |
| Erik Rivera L 2027 · 5.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.95 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.8% | .255 | 4.86 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 87 | -1.09 | 4.69 | 122 | 76 |
| Nate Savino L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.70 | 16.8% | 18.8% | 3.0% | .244 | 4.55 | 14.8% | 0.8% | 105 | -1.15 | 4.14 | 150 | 76 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 75 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 75 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.24 | 17.5% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .264 | 5.72 | 11.5% | -8.3% | 43 | +0.48 | 4.55 | 218 | 74 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 11.9% | 15.1% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.29 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 97 | -1.10 | 4.11 | 158 | 74 |
| Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 74 |
| Max Roberts L 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.79 | 10.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 173 | 74 |
| Luke Fox L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.14 | 21.8% | 19.2% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.07 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 118 | -1.07 | 2.79 | 148 | 74 |
| Kyle Backhus L 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.41 | 15.2% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .280 | 3.43 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 153 | -0.98 | 2.86 | 237 | 73 |
| Parker Rigler L 2026 · 6.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.33 | 13.8% | 13.3% | 5.0% | .318 | 4.54 | 14.5% | 4.0% | 140 | -1.79 | 4.54 | 192 | 73 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.18 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.66 | 3.78 | 252 | 73 |
| Evan Grills L 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.51 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .335 | 3.80 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 221 | -1.71 | 3.24 | 309 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 1.13 | 4.84 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |