Michael Carpenter

Michael Carpenter P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%17.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.4%	4.70	4.33	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	2.4%	4.70	4.33	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	17	54	244	58	23	4	94%	3.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	1.6%	4.70	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	11	9	16	87	19	14	2	82%	1.4	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	4.7%	14.36	5.47	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	11	9	16	87	19	14	2	82%	1.4	18.9%	10.8%	8.0%	4.7%	14.36	5.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIN	4	2	3	19	4	7	0	50%	0.8	21.1%	36.8%	-15.8%	0.0%	24.00	5.99	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	2	2	2	15	2	2	0	100%	1.1	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.0%	7.71	3.66	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIN	5	5	10	53	13	5	2	100%	2.1	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.8%	13.06	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	54	230	43	26	7	100%	5.5	18.6%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.92	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	56	236	46	25	7	100%	5.6	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.76	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	57	239	48	25	7	100%	5.7	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	57	239	49	25	7	100%	6.3	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.63	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	56	236	48	25	7	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	27	114	21	13	3	100%	5.4	18.6%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	5.00	4.93	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	39	165	32	18	5	100%	5.6	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.84	4.77	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	39	20	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.73	4.68	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	42	21	6	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.67	4.64	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	50	211	43	22	6	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	212	894	179	94	26	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.34	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	89	25	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		29	26	69	331	59	37	10	90%	2.4	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	3.0%	6.88	4.63	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	75	200	955	171	106	29	90%	2.4	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	3.0%	6.88	4.63	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Carpenter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	17.3%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.78	19.4%	8.7%	167	-0.40	—	—	—
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	83
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	79
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	79
Joe Miller L 2022 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	17.4%	13.9%	2.0%	.375	4.22	16.0%	7.7%	273	-0.26	3.76	355	78
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	74
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	73
Kyle Backhus L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.280	3.50	22.9%	11.4%	153	-0.81	2.78	267	73
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	73
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	73
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	72
Max Roberts L 2017 · 4.79 FIP	20	SP-	4.79	10.7%	9.9%	2.5%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	173	72
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	72
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	72
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	70
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	70
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	69
Shane Drohan L 2021 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.6%	13.9%	1.2%	.313	5.06	20.6%	9.1%	264	+0.96	2.88	532	69
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	19.4%	10.9%	1.12	4.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77