Hunter Dryden
P
Eugene Emeralds
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'9" / 184 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.7%
IP93
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 21 | 93 | 396 | 103 | 41 | 3 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 0.7% | 2.90 | 3.40 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 2 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 86 | 40 | 10 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 99 | 419 | 95 | 44 | 10 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 4.08 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 100 | 43 | 12 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 108 | 45 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 111 | 46 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 111 | 46 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 108 | 46 | 13 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 111 | 467 | 103 | 45 | 13 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 99 | 44 | 13 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 94 | 43 | 13 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 88 | 41 | 13 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 82 | 40 | 12 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 76 | 39 | 12 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 70 | 37 | 12 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 23 | 99 | 422 | 85 | 52 | 3 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 2.82 | 3.33 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 853 | 172 | 105 | 6 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 2.82 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Dryden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.23 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 336 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 93 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 91 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 91 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 90 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 88 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 88 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .264 | 5.04 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 312 | +1.29 | 2.95 | 492 | 87 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 86 |
| Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 86 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 86 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 86 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 86 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 86 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $4M | +$0.7M |
| Totals | $10M | $54M | +$44M | ||