Hunter Dryden — OGILVIE

Hunter Dryden P Eugene Emeralds

Age 24 RHP 5'9" / 184 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	396	103	41	3	100%	4.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	0.7%	2.90	3.42	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	396	103	41	3	100%	4.4	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	0.7%	2.90	3.42	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	21	21	93	396	103	41	3	100%	4.4	26.0%	10.4%	15.7%	0.8%	2.90	2.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	25	20	107	478	114	51	18	80%	4.3	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	4.7%	4.47	5.69	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	25	20	107	478	114	51	18	80%	4.3	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	4.7%	4.47	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	SF	25	20	107	478	114	51	18	80%	4.3	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.8%	4.47	4.50	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.7	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.6%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	112	502	119	54	19	—	—	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.7%	4.49	5.65	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	447	88	52	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	2.6%	4.77	4.72	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	447	90	51	12	100%	5.9	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.6%	4.69	4.66	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	440	89	49	12	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	2.7%	4.67	4.68	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	101	427	86	48	12	100%	5.9	20.1%	11.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.75	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	97	408	81	47	12	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	3.0%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	91	383	75	45	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	3.2%	4.96	5.06	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	46	194	38	23	5	100%	5.8	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	2.4%	4.66	4.61	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	70	296	59	33	7	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.4%	4.58	4.55	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	69	38	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	2.5%	4.56	4.57	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	72	40	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	11.3%	8.9%	2.6%	4.59	4.63	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	71	41	10	100%	6.1	19.9%	11.5%	8.4%	2.7%	4.69	4.76	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	82	346	68	41	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	448	1890	377	216	50	100%	6.0	20.0%	11.4%	8.5%	2.6%	4.65	4.30	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	97	22	100%	6.0	20.0%	11.4%	8.5%	2.6%	4.65	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		46	41	200	874	164	107	25	89%	4.3	18.8%	12.2%	6.5%	2.9%	3.74	4.66	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	875	164	107	25	89%	4.3	18.8%	12.2%	6.5%	2.9%	3.74	4.66	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Dryden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.1%	12.9%	2.6%	—	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	316	-0.22	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	88
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	87
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	86
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	96	19.9%	11.6%	1.08	4.78
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04