Hunter Dryden
P
Eugene Emeralds
Age 24
RHP
5'9" / 184 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%19.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%6.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 21 | 93 | 396 | 103 | 41 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 0.6% | 2.90 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 21 | 93 | 396 | 103 | 41 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 26.0% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 0.8% | 2.90 | 2.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 16 | 12 | 64 | 293 | 73 | 37 | 10 | 75% | 4.0 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.78 | 5.66 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 54 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.78 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 131 | 577 | 127 | 72 | 17 | — | — | 22.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.67 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 58 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.66 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 48 | 288 | 1216 | 246 | 139 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.32 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 96 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 33 | 157 | 689 | 132 | 91 | 15 | 89% | 4.2 | 19.2% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 4.33 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 878 | 169 | 116 | 19 | 89% | 4.2 | 19.2% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Dryden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.64 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 203 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 86 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 85 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 84 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 84 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 84 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 83 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 82 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 82 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 82 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 81 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | 5.68 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 29 | +1.60 | 3.93 | 223 | 81 |
| Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 81 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 81 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 81 |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 65 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.06 | 4.74 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |