Cole Hertzler

P Asheville Tourists

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #592

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AHOU	2	0	5	1.80	5.10	28.6%	14.3%	—	K 28.6% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.11
2025	22	AHOU	4	4	16	1.12	1.48	34.4%	9.4%	—	K 25.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.35
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	21	84	3.44	4.31	29.6%	13.2%	—	K 23.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.52
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	12	12	67	5.33	5.33	22.1%	14.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	6	6	33	5.12	5.05	22.6%	12.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	8	8	51	5.01	4.97	22.9%	12.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control45Command50FB velo47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 78%

CompsKhristian Curtis (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22) · Connor Staine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%22.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3550

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.11	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.11	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	2.5	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	4.8%	1.80	5.10	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	0.0%	1.12	2.35	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.4%	0.0%	1.12	2.35	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	4	16	64	22	6	0	100%	4.0	34.4%	9.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.12	1.48	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	84	348	103	46	13	95%	3.8	23.2%	14.9%	8.3%	4.5%	3.44	5.52	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	84	348	103	46	13	95%	3.8	23.2%	14.9%	8.3%	4.5%	3.44	5.52	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	84	348	103	46	13	95%	3.8	29.6%	13.2%	16.4%	3.7%	3.44	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	12	12	67	283	63	40	10	100%	5.6	22.1%	14.3%	7.8%	3.5%	5.33	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	76	322	73	41	11	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.7%	9.9%	3.4%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	76	322	74	40	11	100%	5.9	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	3.4%	5.01	4.97	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	75	317	73	39	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.4%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	70	38	11	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	3.5%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	293	66	37	11	100%	5.8	22.6%	12.6%	9.9%	3.6%	5.11	5.17	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	65	276	61	36	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	3.8%	5.26	5.35	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	33	139	32	18	5	100%	5.5	22.6%	12.7%	9.9%	3.4%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	49	27	7	100%	6.4	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	3.4%	5.01	4.97	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	58	245	56	30	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.4%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	61	258	59	32	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	3.5%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	61	258	58	33	9	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.6%	9.9%	3.6%	5.11	5.17	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	55	32	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	3.8%	5.26	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	322	1361	308	171	48	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.5%	5.08	4.72	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	191	106	30	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.5%	5.08	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		28	25	105	433	103	62	17	89%	3.7	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	3.9%	3.01	5.03	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	48	200	827	197	118	32	89%	3.7	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	3.9%	3.01	5.03	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Hertzler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	22.1%	14.3%	3.5%	—	5.00	22.8%	10.3%	228	-0.33	—	—	—
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	80
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	80
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	79
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	79
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	79
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	79
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	78
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	78
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	78
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	78
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	77
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	22.6%	12.8%	1.36	5.11
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*