Jhonan Coba — OGILVIE

Jhonan Coba P FCL Tigers

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%21.3%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—40

CMD3545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	10	0	12	61	14	11	1	0%	1.2	15.6%	22.5%	-6.9%	2.1%	10.22	5.78	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	10	0	12	61	14	11	1	0%	1.2	15.6%	22.5%	-6.9%	2.1%	10.22	5.78	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	10	0	12	61	14	11	1	0%	1.2	23.0%	18.0%	4.9%	1.6%	10.22	4.56	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	10	9	42	178	50	15	2	90%	4.2	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	1.5%	5.14	3.65	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	10	9	42	178	50	15	2	90%	4.2	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	1.5%	5.14	3.65	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	10	9	42	178	50	15	2	90%	4.2	28.1%	8.4%	19.7%	1.1%	5.14	2.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	13	42	180	53	28	6	100%	3.3	19.7%	20.0%	-0.3%	5.0%	5.31	6.69	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	13	42	180	53	28	6	100%	3.3	19.7%	20.0%	-0.3%	5.0%	5.31	6.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	12	12	39	169	49	27	6	100%	3.3	29.0%	16.0%	13.0%	3.6%	5.72	4.62	—
2026	20	A RAW	DET	1	1	3	11	4	1	0	100%	3.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	44	184	41	21	5	100%	5.5	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	21	89	20	10	3	100%	5.2	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	21	91	20	11	3	100%	5.4	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	187	103	28	100%	4.8	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		33	22	97	419	79	68	13	67%	2.9	18.9%	16.3%	2.5%	3.1%	5.87	5.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	46	200	867	163	142	27	67%	2.9	18.9%	16.3%	2.5%	3.1%	5.87	5.26	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhonan Coba (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	—	4.67	22.0%	10.4%	44	-0.23	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	89
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	85
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	85
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	85
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	81
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	81
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	80
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	80
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	80
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	80
Aidan Curry R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	21.7%	13.5%	3.5%	.384	4.73	21.5%	9.5%	260	-0.18	3.34	410	80
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	21.7%	12.1%	1.12	4.80
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22