Alexander Mercedes

P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 18 LHP ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKDSL Brewers B…	11	7	34	6.03	2.87	28.7%	14.6%	—	K 19.5% · BB 18.3% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	18	MLBMIL	4	4	20	5.28	5.28	21.9%	16.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBMIL	3	3	16	5.03	4.93	22.4%	14.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBrayan Mendoza (age 18) · Deyer Zapata (age 18) · Jeremy Pilon (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%21.9%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	34	157	45	23	1	64%	3.1	19.5%	18.3%	1.2%	0.9%	6.03	4.26	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	34	157	45	23	1	64%	3.1	19.5%	18.3%	1.2%	0.9%	6.03	4.26	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	11	7	34	157	45	23	1	64%	3.1	28.7%	14.6%	14.0%	0.6%	6.03	2.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	MIL	4	4	20	84	18	14	2	100%	5.0	21.9%	16.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.28	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	32	137	31	19	4	100%	4.6	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	MIL	3	3	16	68	15	9	2	100%	5.3	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	67	15	9	2	100%	5.3	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.55	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	188	113	25	100%	4.9	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		11	7	34	157	31	29	1	64%	3.1	19.5%	18.3%	1.2%	0.9%	6.03	4.26	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	41	200	915	178	167	8	64%	3.1	19.5%	18.3%	1.2%	0.9%	6.03	4.26	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	21.9%	16.2%	2.9%	—	4.93	22.4%	8.4%	32	-0.35	—	—	—
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	86
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	78
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	78
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	77
Gabriel Agostini L 2022 · 4.84 FIP	18	SP-	4.84	14.6%	15.0%	1.9%	.311	5.24	12.7%	-2.7%	55	+0.40	1.97	122	77
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	76
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
Kelvin Rosario L 2024 · 4.69 FIP	17	SP-	4.69	16.7%	11.2%	2.9%	.280	6.63	15.9%	-2.9%	54	+1.94	4.34	126	74
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	73
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	72
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	72
Francisco Villegas L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	18	SP-	4.66	13.5%	14.8%	1.5%	.288	5.41	17.6%	5.1%	90	+0.75	4.55	131	72
Yordan Nodal L 2019 · 5.24 FIP	17	SW	5.24	15.8%	20.7%	1.6%	.280	4.97	16.5%	1.3%	77	-0.27	4.94	193	71
Reinold Navarro L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	21.7%	22.6%	1.4%	.211	4.32	29.4%	5.7%	95	-0.60	3.55	119	71
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	71
Christian Oppor L 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SP-	4.57	18.4%	20.6%	0.8%	.389	4.94	21.1%	0.8%	123	+0.37	3.96	161	70
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	70
Jeremy Peguero L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	19	SW	4.63	17.3%	17.2%	1.5%	.345	4.08	20.1%	0.6%	87	-0.55	3.52	126	70
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	70
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.2%	14.9%	1.11	5.13
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*