Carlos Alvarez

P DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

Scout OFP50ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Padres Br…	12	12	23	9.78	5.71	18.9%	25.4%	—	K 12.8% · BB 31.8% · FIP 6.76
2026	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	11	11	44	3.25	2.78	20.2%	10.9%	—	K 13.7% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	19	MLBSD	4	4	22	5.93	5.93	15.9%	17.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBSD	4	4	21	5.58	5.46	17.4%	15.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHector Yan (age 19) · Mavis Graves (age 19) · Josue Arias (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%15.9%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-1.8%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—45

CTRL—30

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	12.8%	31.8%	-18.9%	1.3%	9.78	6.76	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	12.8%	31.8%	-18.9%	1.3%	9.78	6.76	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	18.9%	25.4%	-6.6%	0.8%	9.78	5.71	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.1%	0.0%	3.25	3.67	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.1%	0.0%	3.25	3.67	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	0.0%	3.25	2.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	SD	4	4	22	93	15	16	3	100%	5.5	15.9%	17.7%	-1.8%	2.8%	5.93	5.93	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	42	177	31	27	5	100%	5.2	17.4%	15.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.58	5.46	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	21	89	15	13	2	100%	5.2	17.4%	15.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.58	5.46	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	21	87	15	13	2	100%	5.1	17.4%	15.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.58	5.08	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	146	126	19	100%	4.6	17.4%	15.2%	2.3%	2.8%	5.58	5.08	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		23	23	67	305	41	64	2	100%	2.9	13.4%	20.9%	-7.5%	0.5%	5.48	4.90	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	68	200	906	121	189	5	100%	2.9	13.4%	20.9%	-7.5%	0.5%	5.48	4.90	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	15.9%	17.7%	2.8%	—	5.46	17.4%	2.3%	42	-0.47	—	—	—
Hector Yan L 2018 · 5.96 FIP	19	SP	5.96	14.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.321	4.90	21.8%	6.6%	191	-1.06	3.48	268	87
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	87
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	83
Dylan MacLean L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	19	SP	6.38	13.6%	27.9%	1.6%	.271	4.11	15.7%	5.3%	101	-2.27	3.45	282	82
Lewis Sifontes L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	18	SP	4.81	12.5%	17.4%	1.0%	.340	6.30	17.7%	0.1%	63	+1.49	4.81	123	80
José Alvarado L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	15.1%	20.1%	1.7%	.347	3.00	25.3%	11.6%	183	-2.31	1.57	524	80
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2017 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP	5.29	11.5%	15.0%	2.3%	.354	3.74	22.8%	11.7%	52	-1.55	3.05	433	80
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	80
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	79
Alexuan Vega L 2018 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	11.5%	21.1%	3.6%	.306	5.64	13.6%	-7.7%	43	-1.16	5.05	111	79
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP	6.27	17.4%	30.7%	1.4%	.396	5.46	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.81	3.98	184	78
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	78
Frank Mozzicato L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	19	SP	5.00	21.5%	19.7%	2.2%	.306	5.60	18.6%	0.2%	288	+0.60	5.00	428	78
Braeden Ogle L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	19	SP	5.04	12.4%	12.5%	2.5%	.208	4.59	16.7%	5.4%	92	-0.45	3.80	239	77
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	76
Jake Brentz L 2015 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP	5.48	11.0%	13.9%	2.8%	.329	4.77	21.0%	1.4%	73	-0.71	3.93	235	76
Lucas Gilbreath L 2017 · 5.60 FIP	21	SP	5.60	11.5%	17.8%	2.2%	.281	4.37	16.9%	7.4%	260	-1.23	3.17	431	76
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2024 · 6.74 FIP	19	SP	6.74	15.3%	21.7%	4.0%	.411	3.87	14.1%	0.5%	64	-2.87	3.39	148	75
Nicolas De La Cruz L 2023 · 5.11 FIP	17	SP	5.11	11.0%	18.4%	1.1%	.172	5.22	16.9%	-6.2%	95	+0.11	4.52	128	75
Jacob Heatherly L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.47	192	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	16.9%	16.0%	1.08	5.70
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*