Dylan MacLean
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.6
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%13.0%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 7 | 6 | 17 | 85 | 17 | 19 | 1 | 13.6% | 27.9% | 1.6% | 5.82 | 6.35 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 21 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 3.96 | 6.06 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 7 | 76 | 321 | 75 | 30 | 2 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 0.8% | 3.20 | 3.46 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 21 | 10 | 73 | 285 | 65 | 15 | 9 | 17.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.34 | 4.11 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 2 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 65 | 25 | 9 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 82 | 350 | 73 | 29 | 9 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 3.90 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 68 | 25 | 9 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 69 | 26 | 9 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 67 | 25 | 9 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 25 | 9 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 24 | 9 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 23 | 9 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 46 | 21 | 8 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 25 | 199 | 842 | 137 | 90 | 18 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 25 | 200 | 845 | 137 | 90 | 18 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan MacLean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 221 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 95 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 91 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 90 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 90 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 89 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.32 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.98 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.32 | 161 | 88 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.62 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .360 | 3.10 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.52 | 2.14 | 246 | 88 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 88 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 86 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 86 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 86 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 85 |
| Billy Strode L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.85 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 155 | 85 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 85 |
| Dalton Moats L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.70 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .286 | 4.49 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 83 | -0.21 | 3.21 | 322 | 85 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.36 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.87 | 2.79 | 238 | 85 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 84 |
| David Roseboom L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.80 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .197 | 4.09 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 79 | +0.29 | 2.99 | 200 | 84 |
| Dylan Lee L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $14M | +$7M | ||