Lucas Gilbreath
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114123vR 133
ERA5.85
FIP5.61
K%17.9%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%2.9%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p7529.2%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL (44%)
FB-1.1 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 12 | 10 | 43 | 190 | 32 | 27 | 3 | 83% | 3.6 | 11.5% | 17.8% | -6.3% | 2.2% | 4.60 | 5.60 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 12 | 10 | 43 | 190 | 32 | 27 | 3 | 83% | 3.6 | 16.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 4.60 | 4.40 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 21 | 116 | 508 | 119 | 24 | 9 | 81% | 4.5 | 17.3% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 5.04 | 3.38 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 21 | 116 | 508 | 119 | 24 | 9 | 81% | 4.5 | 23.4% | 4.7% | 18.7% | 1.8% | 5.04 | 2.68 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 28 | 28 | 144 | 665 | 143 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.6% | 12.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.81 | 4.76 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 28 | 28 | 144 | 665 | 143 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 5.81 | 4.62 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 3.25 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 3.25 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 55 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 4.72 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 55 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 4.72 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 15% | 0.8 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 12.60 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 15% | 0.8 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 12.60 | 6.00 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 44 | 206 | 41 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.63 | 6.05 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 44 | 206 | 41 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 13.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.63 | 6.05 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | COL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.85 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 40 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.71 | 5.71 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | COL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 36 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.76 | 5.86 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.71 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | COL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.76 | 5.86 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 1 | 135 | 587 | 130 | 79 | 16 | 1% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.44 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 1 | 200 | 871 | 193 | 117 | 24 | 1% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 224 | 62 | 449 | 2030 | 368 | 237 | 49 | 28% | 2.0 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 5.46 | 4.37 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 28 | 200 | 905 | 164 | 106 | 22 | 28% | 2.0 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 5.46 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Gilbreath (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.78 | 17.5% | 2.8% | 104 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 70 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 65 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 65 |
| Braulio Lara L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 65 |
| Bryan Harper L 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 63 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 13.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 134 | 63 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 63 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.14 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 299 | 62 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 21.1% | 1.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 154 | 62 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 62 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.67 | 23.5% | 22.4% | 1.3% | .301 | 4.11 | 32.8% | 16.9% | 99 | -0.56 | 3.10 | 205 | 61 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 61 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 61 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 60 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 60 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 59 |
| Greg Nappo L 2024 · 6.48 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.48 | 12.3% | 12.6% | 5.1% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 144 | 58 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 6.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.44 | 17.9% | 25.9% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 122 | 58 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 58 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.46 | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.3% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 101 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 17.6% | 14.8% | 1.31 | 5.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |