Lucas Gilbreath — OGILVIE

Lucas Gilbreath P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 55 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA5.51

FIP5.29

K%17.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p7529.2%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

SL (44%)

FB-1.1 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	12	10	43	190	32	27	3	83%	3.6	11.5%	17.8%	-6.3%	2.2%	4.60	5.60	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	12	10	43	190	32	27	3	83%	3.6	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	1.6%	4.60	4.40	—
2018	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	21	116	508	119	24	9	81%	4.5	17.3%	5.6%	11.8%	2.1%	5.04	3.48	—
2018	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	21	116	508	119	24	9	81%	4.5	23.4%	4.7%	18.7%	1.8%	5.04	2.68	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	28	28	144	665	143	73	22	100%	5.1	16.6%	12.6%	3.9%	3.2%	5.81	5.08	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	28	28	144	665	143	73	22	100%	5.1	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.3%	5.81	4.62	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	44	192	47	24	5	2%	0.9	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	2.4%	3.25	3.98	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	44	192	47	24	5	2%	0.9	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.6%	3.25	4.07	+0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	48	212	55	28	2	0%	0.9	26.2%	13.9%	12.3%	0.9%	4.72	3.17	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	48	212	55	28	2	0%	0.9	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	0.9%	4.72	3.10	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	2	10	57	12	9	2	15%	0.8	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	3.5%	12.60	5.25	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	2	10	57	12	9	2	15%	0.8	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	3.5%	12.60	5.25	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	2	10	57	12	9	2	15%	0.8	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	3.5%	12.60	6.00	-0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	44	206	41	27	10	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.8%	7.63	5.87	-0.7
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	44	206	41	27	10	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.0%	4.6%	4.8%	7.63	5.87	-0.7
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	44	206	41	27	10	0%	1.0	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	4.9%	7.63	6.05	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			98	1	88	388	95	50	9	1%	0.9	24.5%	12.9%	11.6%	2.3%	4.41	3.98	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	COL	52	0	55	232	42	30	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.1%	4.8%	3.0%	5.51	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	COL	49	0	51	216	38	28	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.3%	5.43	5.45	-0.5
2029	33	MLB MLE	COL	45	0	47	198	34	26	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.52	5.64	-0.6
2030	34	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	43	181	30	25	7	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	3.1%	3.8%	5.71	5.88	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	COL	18	0	19	80	14	11	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.3%	5.43	5.45	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	19	15	4	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.52	5.64	-0.3
2030	34	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	15	13	4	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	3.1%	3.8%	5.71	5.88	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	1	154	668	143	87	19	1%	1.0	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.91	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	1	200	868	186	113	25	1%	1.0	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.91	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		224	62	449	2030	367	233	55	28%	2.0	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	2.7%	5.46	4.51	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	28	200	905	164	104	24	28%	2.0	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%	2.7%	5.46	4.51	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Gilbreath (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	17.9%	13.1%	3.0%	—	5.64	17.2%	3.9%	141	+0.35	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	68
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	67
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	66
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	65
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	65
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	64
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	64
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	63
Vic Darensbourg L 2002 · 5.46 FIP	31	SU	5.46	14.2%	9.4%	4.3%	.304	4.11	9.4%	4.2%	22	-1.35	2.94	287	63
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	63
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	62
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	62
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	62
Jack Taschner L 2009 · 4.72 FIP	31	SU	4.72	13.3%	12.6%	2.1%	.340	4.74	18.1%	6.4%	20	+0.02	3.14	189	62
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	62
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	61
Scott Sauerbeck L 2003 · 4.59 FIP	31	SU	4.59	19.2%	14.6%	2.3%	.247	4.29	18.9%	7.8%	61	-0.30	2.79	386	60
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	59
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	427	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	19.6%	13.1%	1.18	5.19
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43