Lucas Gilbreath
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
ERA5.17
FIP5.17
xFIP0.68
SIERA0.80
K%20.3%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%8.7%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p7529.2%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL (44%)
FB-1.1 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 12 | 10 | 43 | 190 | 32 | 27 | 3 | 11.5% | 17.8% | 2.2% | 4.60 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 21 | 116 | 508 | 119 | 24 | 9 | 17.3% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 5.04 | 3.47 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 28 | 28 | 144 | 665 | 143 | 73 | 22 | 16.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 5.81 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 49 | 1 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 23.8% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 52 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 55 | 28 | 2 | 26.2% | 13.9% | 0.8% | 4.72 | 3.08 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 13 | 2 | 10 | 57 | 12 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 12.60 | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 44 | 0 | 44 | 206 | 41 | 27 | 10 | 17.0% | 14.0% | 4.8% | 7.63 | 6.09 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 19.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | COL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 5.24 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | COL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | COL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 62 | 449 | 2030 | 368 | 237 | 53 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 5.46 | 4.47 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 28 | 200 | 905 | 164 | 106 | 24 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 5.46 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Gilbreath (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.28 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 98 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 77 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.60 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 3.6% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 153 | 75 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 73 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 72 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 71 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 70 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 68 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 68 |
| Braulio Lara L 2024 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 68 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 68 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 67 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 67 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 118 | 67 |
| Bryan Harper L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.65 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 133 | 67 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 66 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.78 | 20.5% | 21.1% | 1.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 154 | 66 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 23.5% | 22.4% | 1.2% | .301 | 4.18 | 32.8% | 16.9% | 99 | -0.44 | 3.16 | 205 | 66 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 65 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.