Jake Brentz
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
xFIP7.04
SIERA6.53
K%22.0%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%9.4%
IP19
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3030
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p8130.2%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL-2.3
FB-3.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 22 | 99 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 11.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 5.48 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 21 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 15 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 33 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 21.8% | 15.3% | 2.0% | 4.50 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 31 | 0 | 33 | 176 | 45 | 39 | 2 | 20.0% | 24.9% | 1.5% | 9.92 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 41 | 0 | 53 | 236 | 59 | 28 | 5 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 72 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 76 | 36 | 7 | 27.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.86 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 10 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 10 | 11 | 1 | — | — | — | 24.16 | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 34 | 0 | 30 | 178 | 32 | 52 | 4 | 15.4% | 28.1% | 3.0% | 11.40 | 6.99 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 9 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 8 | 14 | 0 | — | — | — | 14.62 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 19 | — | 19 | 80 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 26.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 25.5% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.73 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 7 | 270 | 1305 | 277 | 236 | 28 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 2.2% | 6.46 | 4.79 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 5 | 200 | 965 | 205 | 175 | 21 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 2.2% | 6.46 | 4.79 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Brentz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 26.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.73 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 79 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 76 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.02 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.9% | .234 | 4.80 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | -0.22 | 3.98 | 173 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 74 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 69 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 33.9% | 18.0% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.23 | 31.8% | 17.8% | 53 | +0.11 | 3.16 | 205 | 68 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 68 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 67 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 66 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 66 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 66 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 65 |
| James Jones L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.27 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .230 | 4.67 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.40 | 3.58 | 127 | 65 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 65 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 65 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.82 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.23 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 63 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.53 | 21.6% | 12.7% | 1.2% | .222 | 3.70 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 37 | +0.17 | 1.60 | 309 | 63 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .284 | 5.47 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.75 | 2.71 | 181 | 63 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.