Jake Brentz
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 31
LHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118127vR 137
ERA6.00
FIP5.82
K%22.2%
BB%19.9%
K-BB%2.3%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p8130.2%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL-2.3
FB-3.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 22 | 99 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 11.0% | 13.9% | -2.9% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 5.48 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 6 | 6 | 22 | 99 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 4.33 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.65 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 15.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 4.24 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 40 | 176 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 3.43 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 176 | 45 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 24.9% | -4.9% | 1.6% | 9.92 | 5.43 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 176 | 45 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 22.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 9.92 | 4.72 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 236 | 59 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.36 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 236 | 59 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 4.27 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 72 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 76 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.3% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 72 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 76 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.3% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 0.6 | 22.7% | 25.0% | -2.3% | 2.3% | 24.16 | 5.59 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 0.6 | 22.7% | 25.0% | -2.3% | 2.3% | 24.16 | 7.21 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.9 | 35.7% | 21.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.80 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.9 | 35.7% | 21.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.73 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 30 | 178 | 32 | 52 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.4% | 28.1% | -12.7% | 3.1% | 11.40 | 7.08 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 30 | 178 | 32 | 52 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.0% | 29.2% | -11.2% | 2.2% | 11.40 | 7.90 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.7% | 29.2% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 14.62 | 5.39 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.7% | 29.2% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 14.62 | 6.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 52 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 5.82 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 19.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.90 | 5.93 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 18.9% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.96 | 6.09 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 36 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 6.13 | 6.30 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 19.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.90 | 5.93 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 18.9% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.96 | 6.09 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 6.13 | 6.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 137 | 0 | 130 | 570 | 138 | 94 | 17 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 4.81 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 213 | 145 | 26 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 249 | 7 | 270 | 1305 | 277 | 236 | 29 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 6.46 | 4.84 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 5 | 200 | 965 | 205 | 175 | 22 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 6.46 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Brentz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.82 | 22.2% | 19.9% | 3.1% | — | 6.10 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 141 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 21.1% | 1.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 154 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 71 |
| D.J. Snelten L 2026 · 6.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 6.18 | 23.6% | 24.6% | 3.6% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 373 | 66 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 13.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 134 | 65 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.82 | 17.3% | 15.4% | 4.1% | .212 | 3.18 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 81 | -2.64 | 2.90 | 414 | 64 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 61 |
| Darien Núñez L 2025 · 6.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.44 | 17.9% | 25.9% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 122 | 60 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.72 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .234 | 4.93 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 207 | 59 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 6.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 6.15 | 17.4% | 14.2% | 5.0% | .357 | 5.28 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 217 | -0.87 | 3.47 | 512 | 58 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.24 | 20.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 218 | 58 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 57 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 8.1% | 13.8% | 2.0% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 115 | 51 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 49 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.05 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 4.8% | .295 | 3.79 | 27.3% | 18.0% | 136 | -1.26 | 2.89 | 290 | 49 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 183 | 49 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 47 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 42 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 40 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 40 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.23 | 23.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 451 | 40 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 21.2% | 19.3% | 1.33 | 5.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |