Jake Brentz — OGILVIE

Jake Brentz P Knoxville Smokies

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.99

FIP5.81

K%22.2%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL-2.3

FB-3.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	6	6	22	99	16	11	2	100%	3.7	11.0%	13.9%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.09	5.48	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	6	6	22	99	16	11	2	100%	3.7	16.2%	11.1%	5.1%	2.0%	4.09	4.33	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	12	56	15	8	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	14.3%	12.5%	0.0%	6.00	2.65	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	12	56	15	8	0	0%	1.2	26.8%	14.3%	12.5%	0.0%	6.00	2.60	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	176	49	24	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	15.3%	6.5%	2.0%	4.50	4.28	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	176	49	24	3	0%	1.2	27.8%	13.6%	14.2%	1.7%	4.50	3.43	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	176	45	39	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	24.9%	-4.9%	1.5%	9.92	5.36	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	176	45	39	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	22.2%	3.4%	1.1%	9.92	4.72	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	53	236	59	28	5	0%	1.3	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	2.5%	4.27	4.26	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	53	236	59	28	5	0%	1.3	25.0%	11.9%	13.1%	2.1%	4.27	3.69	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	72	0	64	278	76	36	7	0%	0.9	27.3%	12.9%	14.4%	2.7%	3.66	3.93	+0.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	72	0	64	278	76	36	7	0%	0.9	27.3%	12.9%	14.4%	2.5%	3.66	3.83	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	6	44	10	11	1	0%	0.6	22.7%	25.0%	-2.3%	2.3%	24.16	5.59	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	6	44	10	11	1	0%	0.6	22.7%	25.0%	-2.3%	2.3%	24.16	7.21	-0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	3	14	5	3	0	33%	0.9	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.80	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	3	14	5	3	0	33%	0.9	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.80	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	3	14	5	3	0	33%	0.9	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	3.38	2.73	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	15.4%	28.1%	-12.7%	2.9%	11.40	6.93	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	15.4%	28.1%	-12.7%	2.9%	11.40	6.93	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	30	178	32	52	4	0%	0.9	18.0%	29.2%	-11.2%	2.2%	11.40	7.90	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	5.39	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	5.39	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	8	48	8	14	0	0%	0.9	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	14.62	6.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	0	69	316	85	46	8	0%	0.9	26.9%	14.6%	12.3%	2.5%	5.19	4.14	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CHC	4	0	4	17	4	3	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	19.9%	2.3%	3.1%	5.99	5.81	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	51	216	47	42	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	19.2%	2.3%	3.3%	5.89	5.92	-0.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	CHC	45	0	47	198	41	38	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	18.9%	1.9%	3.6%	5.96	6.08	-0.8
2029	34	MLB MLE	CHC	41	0	43	181	36	34	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	18.9%	1.1%	3.8%	6.13	6.30	-0.8
2027	32	MLB CTX	CHC	15	0	16	68	15	13	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	19.2%	2.3%	3.3%	5.89	5.92	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	CHC	23	0	24	101	21	19	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	18.9%	1.9%	3.6%	5.96	6.08	-0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	CHC	19	0	20	84	17	16	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	18.9%	1.1%	3.8%	6.13	6.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	0	130	570	138	94	17	0%	0.9	24.2%	16.5%	7.6%	3.0%	5.57	4.81	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		212	0	200	880	213	145	26	0%	0.9	24.2%	16.5%	7.6%	3.0%	5.57	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		249	7	270	1305	277	236	28	3%	1.1	21.2%	18.1%	3.1%	2.2%	6.46	4.80	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	5	200	965	205	175	21	3%	1.1	21.2%	18.1%	3.1%	2.2%	6.46	4.80	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brentz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	22.2%	19.9%	3.1%	—	6.09	20.9%	1.8%	141	+0.28	—	—	—
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	153	71
Fabian Williamson L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SU	4.78	20.5%	21.1%	1.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	154	71
D.J. Snelten L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	31	SU	5.89	22.3%	21.1%	3.6%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	373	67
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	65
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	61
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	426	61
Darien Núñez L 2023 · 6.14 FIP	30	SU	6.14	16.8%	22.2%	3.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	122	60
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.70	23.1%	11.3%	82	-0.01	3.85	219	59
Ross Detwiler L 2017 · 5.84 FIP	31	SU	5.84	17.4%	14.2%	4.4%	.357	5.32	14.9%	7.8%	217	-0.52	3.49	512	58
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	57
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SU	5.46	8.1%	13.8%	2.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	115	52
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	49
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	48
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	47
Cam Booser L 2023 · 5.00 FIP	31	SU	5.00	22.2%	8.7%	4.9%	.295	3.78	26.4%	18.2%	155	-1.22	2.96	309	46
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.59	21.7%	7.5%	95	-0.11	2.97	294	44
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	42
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	41
Lucas Luetge L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	30	SU	4.96	20.6%	8.9%	4.5%	.352	2.91	22.7%	15.4%	68	-2.05	2.53	430	40
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	40

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	21.2%	19.3%	1.33	5.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99