Cole Tolbert — OGILVIE

Cole Tolbert P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%22.9%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	20.7%	14.2%	6.6%	0.0%	5.56	3.14	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	20.7%	14.2%	6.6%	0.0%	5.56	3.14	—
2024	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	0.0%	5.56	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.96	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BOS	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	1.4%	3.00	2.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	51	216	51	22	6	100%	5.7	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.44	4.38	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	218	52	21	6	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.29	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	218	53	21	6	100%	5.7	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.9%	4.30	4.27	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	51	215	52	21	6	100%	6.4	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.30	4.31	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	22	93	22	9	3	100%	5.5	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	34	144	34	14	4	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.31	4.25	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	41	173	42	17	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.9%	4.26	4.23	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	43	182	44	18	5	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.27	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	140	593	142	58	17	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.29	3.88	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	83	24	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.29	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		21	16	62	261	50	31	4	76%	3.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	1.5%	3.47	3.80	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	51	200	837	159	98	13	76%	3.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	1.5%	3.47	3.80	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Tolbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.9%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.31	23.8%	14.1%	154	-0.24	—	—	—
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	77
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	77
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	76
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	75
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	75
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	74
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	74
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	73
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	42	23.9%	9.8%	1.14	4.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84