Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 15 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 49 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 2.5 | 21.0% | 13.4% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 3.62 | 3.02 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 15 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 49 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 2.5 | 30.8% | 10.7% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 3.62 | 1.84 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 49 | 202 | 55 | 19 | 3 | 67% | 4.1 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 1.65 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 49 | 202 | 55 | 19 | 3 | 67% | 4.1 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 1.65 | 2.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 17 | 8 | 50 | 233 | 49 | 24 | 3 | 47% | 3.0 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.83 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 77 | 346 | 75 | 35 | 6 | — | — | 21.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.89 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 87 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 16 | 137 | 594 | 108 | 73 | 8 | 36% | 3.1 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 3.83 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 23 | 200 | 869 | 158 | 106 | 11 | 36% | 3.1 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zuher Yousuf (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.27 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 28 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.28 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.86 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.58 | 4.28 | 128 | 83 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 82 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 82 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .262 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.42 | 3.58 | 271 | 81 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 80 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 80 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 78 |
| Antonio Jimenez L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 248 | +0.94 | 3.31 | 422 | 78 |
| Denny Roman L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.24 | 25.6% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .348 | 5.24 | 15.7% | -1.0% | 21 | +2.00 | 3.24 | 109 | 78 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.18 | 3.82 | 396 | 78 |
| Steven Pérez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.56 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 5.01 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 116 | +0.45 | 3.80 | 329 | 77 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 76 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 76 |
| Sam Long L 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .371 | 4.18 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 97 | +0.92 | 3.08 | 446 | 75 |
| Johan Simon L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 75 |
| Francisco Villegas L 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.55 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .256 | 5.57 | 17.9% | 3.1% | 59 | +1.02 | 4.55 | 131 | 75 |
| Franklin Dacosta L 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.9% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .274 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 118 | -0.09 | 2.83 | 247 | 75 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 75 |
| Oscar Rayo L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.46 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .316 | 3.25 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 244 | -0.21 | 2.50 | 362 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 1.10 | 4.36 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |