Alejandro Chiquillo

Alejandro Chiquillo P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%21.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	7	6	27	103	30	10	0	86%	3.9	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	0.0%	0.67	2.96	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	7	6	27	103	30	10	0	86%	3.9	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	0.0%	0.67	2.96	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	7	6	27	103	30	10	0	86%	3.9	29.1%	9.7%	19.4%	0.0%	0.67	1.99	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	9	4	29	136	37	12	3	44%	3.3	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	2.4%	6.75	4.24	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	9	4	29	136	37	12	3	44%	3.3	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	2.4%	6.75	4.24	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	9	4	29	136	37	12	3	44%	3.3	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	2.2%	6.75	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	17	13	56	241	56	26	7	76%	3.3	17.2%	12.9%	4.3%	4.2%	4.79	5.56	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	17	13	56	241	56	26	7	76%	3.3	17.2%	12.9%	4.3%	4.2%	4.79	5.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TEX	2	1	5	22	5	2	0	50%	2.4	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	0.0%	3.86	2.33	—
2026	23	A RAW	TEX	15	12	52	219	51	24	7	80%	3.4	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	57	239	53	24	7	100%	5.7	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.48	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	57	242	55	23	7	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.44	4.38	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	57	242	55	23	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	56	238	55	23	7	100%	6.3	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	24	101	22	10	3	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.60	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	38	160	36	15	5	100%	6.3	22.7%	9.6%	13.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.50	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	45	190	44	18	6	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.47	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	46	20	6	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.2%	4.51	4.51	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	26	156	657	149	64	21	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	3.1%	4.55	4.13	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	82	27	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.7%	13.1%	3.1%	4.55	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		33	23	113	480	87	59	13	70%	3.4	18.1%	12.2%	5.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.63	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	852	155	104	24	70%	3.4	18.1%	12.2%	5.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.63	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Chiquillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.4%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.40	22.6%	12.8%	171	-0.26	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	82
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	81
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	76
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	76
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	76
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	76
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	76
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	22.6%	9.8%	1.13	4.46
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81