Jay Thomason — OGILVIE

Jay Thomason3B Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION347 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP310

ISO163

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$38M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	75	16	2	0	2	10	16	0	1	1	213	306	320	626	107	246	19	12	289	82	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	68	60	10	2	1	2	5	22	1	3	0	167	242	333	576	167	211	32	7	251	56	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	161	121	36	8	1	8	34	38	5	19	1	298	469	579	1.047	281	368	24	21	454	194	+18	+3	—	—	+3	2.5
2025	23	ROK	FCL Twins	—	18	12	1	1	0	0	6	6	0	6	1	83	389	167	556	83	167	33	33	304	92	-0	+1	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	77	13	2	0	2	8	23	0	1	1	169	247	273	520	104	200	27	9	219	34	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	68	61	8	1	1	2	4	30	1	3	0	131	197	279	476	148	178	44	6	188	13	-7	+1	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	161	131	30	7	1	7	24	54	5	19	1	229	369	458	827	229	320	34	15	362	131	+6	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	18	14	1	1	0	0	4	9	0	6	1	71	278	143	421	71	123	50	22	192	16	-2	+1	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	77	13	2	0	2	8	23	0	1	1	169	247	273	520	104	212	27	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	75	16	2	0	2	10	16	0	1	1	213	306	320	626	107	246	19	12	289	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	247	206	38	9	1	9	32	93	6	28	2	184	311	369	680	184	271	38	13	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	247	193	47	11	2	10	45	66	6	28	2	244	402	477	878	233	308	27	18	387	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	77	13	2	0	2	8	23	0	1	1	169	247	273	520	104	200	27	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	247	207	38	9	1	9	32	93	6	28	2	184	311	367	679	184	267	38	13	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	77	13	2	0	2	8	23	0	1	1	169	247	273	520	104	200	27	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	247	207	38	9	1	9	32	93	6	28	2	184	311	367	679	184	267	38	13	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	MIN	—	347	307	73	7	1	9	32	113	5	27	9	238	320	355	675	117	342	33	9	299	89	-5	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ RAW	MIN	—	211	174	51	6	2	7	33	54	2	18	3	293	411	471	883	178	383	26	16	391	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	MIN	—	136	119	36	3	0	4	13	33	3	9	6	303	385	429	814	126	390	24	10	365	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	A+ MLE	MIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		310	30	10	312	97	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	24	A+ MLE	MIN	—	357	316	74	7	1	9	33	116	5	28	9	234	316	348	664	114	337	32	9	300	89	-5	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	42%	319	281	66	10	1	10	31	92	4	13	4	235	320	384	704	149	312	29	10	321	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	62%	371	327	79	12	2	13	36	105	5	15	4	242	326	410	736	168	310	28	10	326	107	+3	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	69%	391	345	84	13	2	14	38	110	5	16	5	243	327	414	742	171	309	28	10	326	107	+3	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	402	354	85	13	2	14	40	113	5	15	5	240	326	407	733	167	308	28	10	325	106	+3	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	401	353	85	13	2	14	40	113	5	14	4	241	327	408	735	167	307	28	10	323	104	+2	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	399	351	83	12	2	13	40	114	5	13	4	236	323	393	716	157	305	29	10	320	102	+1	+1	-2	+1	+9	1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	387	341	79	12	1	13	38	111	5	11	3	232	318	387	705	155	303	29	10	315	100	-0	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.8
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIN	72%	369	326	74	11	1	12	36	108	4	8	3	227	311	377	689	150	299	29	10	310	96	-2	+0	-4	+1	+8	0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIN	78%	340	300	66	9	1	10	33	101	4	6	2	220	306	357	662	137	295	30	10	303	91	-4	+0	-4	+1	+7	0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIN	74%	297	263	56	7	1	9	29	90	3	4	1	213	298	350	648	137	289	30	10	294	85	-5	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	42%	135	119	28	4	1	4	13	39	2	5	2	235	321	387	707	151	312	29	10	312	103	+1	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	62%	230	203	49	7	1	8	22	65	3	9	3	241	325	404	729	163	311	28	10	317	107	+2	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	69%	269	238	57	9	1	9	26	75	3	11	3	239	322	399	721	160	309	28	10	317	107	+2	+1	+0	+1	+6	1.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	290	255	61	9	1	10	29	81	4	11	3	239	326	400	726	161	308	28	10	316	106	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	289	254	60	9	1	10	29	82	4	10	3	236	324	398	722	161	307	28	10	314	104	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	287	253	60	9	1	10	28	82	4	9	3	237	323	399	722	162	306	29	10	311	102	+1	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.7
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	278	245	56	8	1	9	28	80	3	8	2	229	315	380	695	151	303	29	10	307	100	-0	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.6
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIN	72%	265	234	53	8	1	8	26	77	3	6	2	226	312	372	684	145	299	29	10	301	96	-1	+0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIN	78%	266	235	52	7	1	8	26	79	3	5	1	221	307	362	669	140	295	30	10	294	91	-3	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIN	74%	219	193	42	6	1	6	21	66	3	3	1	218	304	352	656	135	289	30	10	286	85	-4	+0	-4	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2528	2229	518	76	10	82	248	726	32	77	23	232	318	386	704	153	305	29	10	308	99	+1	+6	-14	+9	+55	5.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	134	20	3	21	64	187	8	20	6	234	319	389	709	155	307	29	10	308	99	+0	+2	-4	+2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4018	3533	809	123	16	133	402	1176	51	145	38	229	317	386	702	157	301	29	10	314	99	+2	+9	-20	+13	+80	8.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	132	20	3	22	65	190	8	23	6	231	318	392	710	161	302	29	10	314	99	+0	+2	-3	+2	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#4Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.8	2,530	83	77	234	316	389	+9	+4	8.3	7.7
/162	664	22	20	+2.4	+0.9	2.2	pk7: 7
#5Ryan Robertslast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	45	35	248	323	395	+5	+20	7.5	7.5
/162	664	18	14	+2.0	+8.0	3.0	pk7: 7
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Thomason (OGILVIE)	24	50	60	60	60	230/315/371	141	310	7	13	30%	10%	97	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	48→49	50→60	55→50	46	244/303/400	156	281	18	19	20%	6%	98	+1.2	236/302/421	185	275	22	15	22%	8%	103	+1.5	228/296/424	195	260	25	15	23%	8%	98	+1.1
●Oneil Cruz 2022 · AAA	23	49→53	54→60	57→60	41	249/296/432	184	324	21	21	30%	6%	103	+1.5	239/302/428	189	318	23	20	30%	8%	104	+1.6	243/326/440	197	329	25	34	32%	10%	110	+1.8
●Edouard Julien 2023 · AA	24	51→55	49→50	52→50	54	234/342/384	150	351	16	18	34%	13%	109	+2.0	234/336/377	143	346	16	10	33%	13%	105	+1.7	227/332/363	135	334	15	8	33%	13%	99	+1.1
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	51→49	51→60	55→50	46	254/314/422	168	308	18	23	23%	7%	107	+1.8	257/315/455	198	301	27	14	24%	8%	115	+2.4	244/301/432	187	279	27	12	23%	7%	102	+0.9
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→52	50→45	56→50	48	247/334/407	160	304	17	23	24%	8%	112	+2.2	227/319/349	122	285	11	13	23%	9%	93	+0.8	238/326/360	122	287	12	10	20%	9%	94	+0.7
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	46→56	50→55	58→60	45	231/296/387	156	310	18	25	31%	8%	93	+0.8	249/306/414	165	353	17	28	32%	8%	102	+1.5	252/308/421	169	355	18	33	32%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→54	53→50	54→60	47	239/301/409	169	278	21	19	23%	7%	99	+1.3	222/293/348	126	288	13	29	26%	8%	82	+0.0	236/302/353	118	292	12	34	22%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	51→55	57→50	48	219/303/382	163	293	19	14	31%	10%	94	+0.9	215/289/381	166	264	20	8	26%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/381	173	246	21	5	25%	8%	85	+0.2
●Dominic Canzone 2023 · AAA	25	47→53	52→60	54→50	43	243/296/411	168	297	20	18	26%	6%	98	+1.2	249/303/429	180	291	23	8	22%	7%	105	+1.7	251/314/447	196	293	26	5	24%	8%	110	+1.4
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA	24	46→48	47→55	52→50	49	232/305/370	139	284	15	16	24%	8%	92	+0.7	221/298/372	151	270	17	11	24%	9%	91	+0.6	208/314/396	188	250	26	2	28%	11%	99	+0.6
●James Outman 2022 · AA	25	41→51	49→55	54→50	42	207/285/359	152	304	17	16	36%	8%	82	-0.0	231/317/417	186	329	22	14	34%	10%	107	+1.9	227/320/420	193	316	24	14	33%	10%	108	+1.7
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→43	49→55	54→50	48	203/290/352	149	278	16	16	32%	10%	82	+0.0	214/299/386	172	268	20	10	27%	10%	93	+0.8	205/292/383	178	245	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.3
✕Scott Schebler 2015 · AA	24	44→52	53→60	53→50	39	230/284/415	185	289	20	10	28%	5%	95	+0.9	231/289/409	178	279	20	10	25%	5%	95	+1.0	241/312/430	189	280	23	5	23%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Kevin Melillo 2006 · AA	24	48→52	52→50	51→50	52	247/315/419	172	276	19	13	19%	9%	107	+1.8	233/297/368	135	291	13	10	23%	8%	88	+0.4	223/288/350	127	286	11	8	25%	8%	78	-0.2
●Kole Calhoun 2012 · A	24	51→57	51→60	48→50	50	257/326/427	170	313	18	11	24%	9%	112	+2.2	260/322/426	166	313	17	11	21%	8%	110	+2.1	265/328/433	168	310	19	3	20%	8%	112	+2.4
✕Mark Teahen 2007 · MLB	25	55→60	51→55	57→50	52	271/338/452	181	320	17	10	20%	9%	122	+2.9	271/333/420	149	332	13	9	21%	8%	113	+2.3	268/329/404	136	331	11	8	21%	8%	102	+1.5
✕Michael Massey 2022 · A	24	43→53	53→55	51→50	44	227/281/401	174	256	21	11	21%	6%	90	+0.6	241/290/405	164	287	19	10	23%	5%	94	+0.9	246/293/414	168	288	20	9	22%	5%	96	+0.8
●Trent Grisham 2020 · MLB	23	43→49	50→60	53→55	51	219/302/375	156	274	18	13	26%	10%	92	+0.7	231/318/405	174	284	20	14	25%	10%	105	+1.7	212/319/405	193	232	27	6	22%	13%	104	+1.1
●Joey Wendle 2014 · A	24	49→59	49→50	51→50	43	245/300/404	159	301	16	9	24%	6%	97	+1.1	235/275/367	132	291	11	9	23%	4%	79	-0.2	270/331/399	129	323	9	19	18%	6%	103	+0.9
✕Leo Heras 2014 · AAA	24	52→62	47→50	55	48	255/312/396	141	304	14	18	20%	7%	99	+1.3	225/294/339	114	288	9	18	23%	8%	80	-0.2	242/317/373	131	314	11	18	24%	9%	94	+0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps