Jay Thomason — OGILVIE

Jay Thomason3B Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION273 act + 182 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .317 / .380

PA182

HR6

SB9

K%31

BB%10

BABIP299

ISO158

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$27M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	77	12	2	0	2	8	23	0	1	1	156	235	260	495	104	192	27	9	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	75	16	2	0	2	10	16	0	1	1	213	306	320	626	107	246	19	12	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	3 teams	—	247	208	39	8	2	10	30	94	6	28	2	188	307	389	697	202	271	38	12	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	3 teams	—	247	193	47	11	2	10	45	66	6	28	2	244	402	477	878	233	308	27	18	387	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	MIN	—	273	239	50	5	1	6	28	95	4	21	5	209	303	314	616	105	314	35	10	283	75	-8	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.3
YTD	24	A+	MIN	—	273	228	63	7	2	8	39	71	4	21	5	276	391	430	821	154	364	26	14	369	140	+12	+2	+0	+1	+8	2.4
ROS	24	A+	MIN	0%	182	158	35	5	1	6	19	56	3	9	2	222	317	380	696	158	296	31	10	306	92	-2	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.5
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						297	0	0	296	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	24	A+	MIN	—	274	240	50	5	1	6	28	95	4	21	5	208	301	312	614	104	312	35	10	283	75	-8	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.3
TOT	24	A+	MIN	—	455	397	85	10	2	12	47	151	7	30	7	214	308	340	648	126	308	33	10	292	82	-9	+3	+0	+2	+13	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIN	42%	331	290	66	10	2	11	34	99	4	12	3	228	317	390	707	162	300	30	10	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.2
2028	26	MLB	MIN	62%	380	333	77	12	2	14	39	111	5	14	3	231	321	405	726	174	300	29	10	321	104	+2	+2	+0	+1	+11	1.6
2029	27	MLB	MIN	69%	397	348	81	13	2	14	41	115	5	15	3	233	322	402	725	170	299	29	10	321	104	+2	+2	+0	+1	+11	1.7
2030	28	MLB	MIN	72%	406	356	82	13	2	14	42	118	5	14	3	230	320	396	716	166	298	29	10	320	103	+2	+2	-1	+1	+12	1.6
2031	29	MLB	MIN	72%	403	353	81	13	2	14	42	117	5	13	3	229	320	397	717	167	297	29	10	318	102	+1	+1	-1	+1	+11	1.4
2032	30	MLB	MIN	72%	400	351	81	13	2	14	41	118	5	12	3	231	320	399	719	168	295	30	10	315	99	-0	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.2
2033	31	MLB	MIN	72%	387	339	76	12	2	13	40	115	5	10	2	224	315	386	702	162	293	30	10	311	96	-2	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.9
2034	32	MLB	MIN	72%	370	325	71	11	1	12	38	111	4	8	2	218	308	369	677	151	289	30	10	305	92	-3	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.6
2035	33	MLB	MIN	78%	341	299	63	9	1	10	35	104	4	6	1	211	302	348	650	137	285	30	10	299	87	-5	+1	-4	+1	+10	0.2
2036	34	MLB	MIN	74%	297	262	54	8	1	9	30	93	3	4	1	206	295	347	642	141	278	31	10	290	80	-7	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.2
2027	25	MLB	MIN	42%	141	124	28	4	1	5	14	42	2	5	1	226	314	395	709	169	300	30	10	307	93	-1	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.4
2028	26	MLB	MIN	62%	236	207	48	8	1	8	24	69	3	9	2	232	321	396	717	164	300	29	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.8
2029	27	MLB	MIN	69%	273	240	56	9	1	10	28	79	3	10	2	233	321	404	725	171	299	29	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.9
2030	28	MLB	MIN	72%	293	257	58	9	1	10	30	85	4	10	2	226	316	385	701	160	298	29	10	311	97	-1	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2031	29	MLB	MIN	72%	290	254	58	9	1	10	30	85	4	10	2	228	319	390	709	161	297	29	10	309	95	-2	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.8
2032	30	MLB	MIN	72%	288	252	57	9	1	10	30	85	4	9	2	226	318	389	707	163	296	30	10	307	93	-2	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.6
2033	31	MLB	MIN	72%	278	244	54	9	1	9	29	83	3	7	2	221	312	377	689	156	293	30	10	303	90	-3	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.4
2034	32	MLB	MIN	72%	266	234	52	8	1	9	27	80	3	6	1	222	311	380	691	158	289	30	10	297	86	-4	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.2
2035	33	MLB	MIN	78%	267	235	49	7	1	8	27	82	3	4	1	209	298	349	647	140	285	31	10	290	80	-6	+0	-3	+1	+8	-0.0
2036	34	MLB	MIN	74%	219	193	40	6	1	6	22	68	2	3	1	207	295	342	637	135	279	31	10	282	74	-6	+0	-4	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2552	2241	500	78	10	85	261	758	31	73	16	223	313	381	693	158	295	30	10	303	90	-28	+8	-14	+9	+72	4.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	128	20	3	22	66	193	8	19	4	224	313	385	698	161	295	30	10	303	90	-7	+2	-4	+2	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	4226	3699	818	129	20	143	439	1274	54	146	29	221	313	383	696	162	293	30	10	310	95	-23	+18	-20	+15	+120	11.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	126	20	3	22	68	196	8	22	4	221	314	383	697	162	293	30	10	310	95	-3	+3	-3	+2	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	85	75	16	2	0	2	10	16	0	1	1	213	306	320	626	107	246	19	12	289	79	-2	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	68	60	10	2	1	2	5	22	1	3	0	167	242	333	576	167	211	32	7	251	51	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	23	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	161	121	36	8	1	8	34	38	5	19	1	298	469	579	1.047	281	368	24	21	454	206	+19	+3	—	—	+5	2.8
2025	23	ROK	FCL Twins	—	18	12	1	1	0	0	6	6	0	6	1	83	389	167	556	83	167	33	33	304	91	-0	+1	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,551	85	73	225	311	384	+9	+4	7.5	7.0
	/162	664	22	19	225	311	384	+2.4	+0.9	1.9	pk7: 7
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Thomason (OGILVIE)	24	50	60	60	60	214/308/340	126	308	12	30	33%	10%	82	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	48→49	52→60	55→50	46	248/306/417	168	283	20	19	20%	6%	103	+1.9	237/303/426	189	275	23	15	23%	8%	105	+2.1	227/294/419	192	260	25	15	23%	8%	96	+1.3
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	52→55	57→50	48	219/304/387	168	295	20	14	31%	10%	95	+1.4	216/290/387	171	266	20	8	26%	8%	89	+1.0	209/283/386	177	247	22	5	25%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→51	56→55	54→60	46	243/303/433	190	278	25	19	23%	7%	107	+2.2	226/297/362	136	291	14	29	26%	8%	85	+0.7	236/306/357	121	292	13	33	22%	8%	85	+0.6
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	49→52	51→45	56→50	48	247/333/412	165	303	18	23	24%	8%	114	+2.7	229/320/355	126	286	12	13	23%	9%	94	+1.3	238/326/362	125	285	12	10	20%	9%	95	+1.1
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA	24	46→47	49→60	52→50	47	230/301/375	145	284	16	16	25%	8%	91	+1.1	224/300/390	166	270	20	11	24%	8%	94	+1.3	212/319/414	202	253	29	2	28%	11%	105	+1.0
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	47→57	53→55	58→60	45	239/303/408	169	318	21	25	31%	8%	100	+1.7	251/307/423	172	352	19	28	32%	7%	105	+2.1	252/308/426	174	353	19	33	32%	7%	102	+1.5
●Oneil Cruz 2023 · MLB	24	44→53	57→60	54→60	42	231/290/432	201	300	25	20	31%	7%	101	+1.8	237/308/423	186	317	22	24	31%	9%	105	+2.1	238/321/427	189	324	23	34	32%	10%	106	+1.7
✕Michael Massey 2022 · A	24	42→51	53→55	51→50	44	223/278/397	173	250	21	11	21%	6%	86	+0.8	242/291/412	170	288	20	10	23%	5%	96	+1.5	249/295/423	175	291	22	9	22%	5%	99	+1.3
✕Kevin Melillo 2006 · AA	24	48→51	53→50	51→50	52	248/316/424	176	277	20	13	19%	9%	109	+2.4	234/297/374	140	293	14	10	24%	8%	88	+0.9	224/289/359	134	287	13	8	25%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	55	46	237/301/388	152	305	17	24	28%	8%	94	+1.3	230/296/357	127	295	12	15	25%	8%	83	+0.6	231/293/342	111	293	10	15	23%	7%	76	+0.0
●Edouard Julien 2023 · AA	24	49→54	50	52→50	53	228/337/387	158	353	18	18	36%	13%	109	+2.4	233/335/379	146	347	17	10	33%	13%	106	+2.2	229/333/366	137	338	16	8	33%	13%	100	+1.5
●Dominic Canzone 2023 · AAA	25	46→53	53→60	54→50	42	238/290/407	169	291	21	18	26%	6%	94	+1.3	246/298/424	178	288	23	8	23%	7%	102	+1.9	249/304/429	180	288	24	5	22%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	41→38	54→60	56→55	45	219/278/397	178	254	22	15	24%	7%	87	+0.8	226/291/414	188	257	23	16	22%	7%	97	+1.5	222/292/406	184	249	22	19	21%	7%	92	+0.8
●Will Benson 2023 · MLB	25	44→52	53→55	53→55	52	220/324/398	178	307	20	16	33%	12%	106	+2.2	224/314/406	182	318	20	23	33%	11%	104	+2.0	216/301/403	188	301	21	24	33%	10%	95	+1.0
✕Casper Wells 2009 · AA	24	42→46	56→60	53→50	44	226/297/423	197	271	24	16	27%	7%	102	+1.9	224/293/423	199	289	24	10	30%	7%	100	+1.7	228/301/438	210	281	24	7	27%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Blake Tekotte 2011 · AA	24	46→48	50→55	50→55	46	233/295/392	158	285	18	18	25%	8%	92	+1.2	212/270/365	153	284	17	21	30%	6%	75	-0.0	195/254/339	144	264	15	23	31%	6%	58	-0.8
●Scott Schebler 2015 · AA	24	43→52	54→60	52→50	38	228/282/415	187	287	22	10	29%	5%	93	+1.3	233/290/423	190	279	23	10	25%	5%	98	+1.6	244/314/441	198	281	25	5	23%	7%	109	+2.1
●James Outman 2022 · AA	25	41→51	51→60	54→50	41	209/284/370	161	306	18	16	36%	8%	82	+0.5	234/319/432	198	335	24	14	35%	9%	113	+2.6	232/324/438	205	324	26	14	34%	10%	114	+2.4
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6