Jay Thomason

3B Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 25 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#995ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AMIN85.213/.306/.3202129—.154/.224/.244
202523A+/A/ROKMIN247.244/.402/.477102884—.188/.307/.376
202624AA/A+MIN347.297/.401/.454112791—.244/.326/.362
2027PROJMLE25MLBMIN1.227/.307/.36900910.0
2028PROJ38% MLB26MLBMIN89.230/.310/.38233950.2
2029PROJ52% MLB27MLBMIN139.230/.309/.38044950.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wOBA77
Z-Con%75
wRC+69
Whiff%55
K%53
BB%42
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsDustin Harris (age 25) · Joey Loperfido (age 25) · Austin Wells (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†91
AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .307 / .369
PA1
HR0
K%27
BB%9
BABIP291
ISO148
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER60
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202422 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8575 16202 10160 11 213306320626 107246 1912 289 29 — — — — — —
202523 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 6860 10212 5221 30 167242333576 167211 327 251 17 — — — — — —
202523 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 161121 36818 34385 191 2984695791.047 281368 2421 454 121 — — — — — —
202523 ROKFCL Twins — 1812 1100 660 61 83389167556 83167 3333 304 13 — — — — — —
202624 AAWichita Wind Surge — 136119 36304 13333 96 303385429814 126390 2410 365 91 — — — — — —
202624 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 211174 51627 33542 183 293411471883 178383 2616 391 91 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202422 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8578 12102 7220 11 154224244467 90195 268 211 29 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 6861 8112 4291 30 131197279476 148180 436 194 17 — — — — — —
202523 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 161133 30617 22525 191 226356444800 218302 3214 347 121 — — — — — —
202523 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 1814 1100 490 61 71278143421 71118 5022 187 13 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 136123 32303 9403 96 260326358684 98359 297 302 91 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 211184 43525 23692 183 234325364689 130322 3311 302 91 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8578 12102 7220 11 154224244467 90185 268 211 29 — — — — — —
202422 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8575 16202 10160 11 213306320626 107246 1912 289 29 — — — — — —
202523 A MLE3 teams — 247209 39829 29896 282 187303373676 187263 3612 293 85 — — — — — —
202523 A RAW3 teams — 247193 4711210 45666 282 244402477878 233308 2718 387 85 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE2 teams — 347307 75729 321095 279 244326368694 124346 319 302 91 — — — — — —
202624 A+ RAW2 teams — 347293 879211 46875 279 297401454855 157386 2513 381 91 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8578 12102 7220 11 154224244467 90195 268 211 29 — — — — — —
202523 A MLE3 teams — 247210 39829 29896 282 186303371675 186255 3612 293 85 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE2 teams — 347307 75729 321095 279 244326368694 124337 319 302 91 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 8578 12102 7220 11 154224244467 90195 268 211 29 — — — — — —
202523 A MLE3 teams — 247210 39829 29896 282 186303371675 186255 3612 293 85 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE2 teams — 347307 75729 321095 279 244326368694 124337 319 302 91 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIN 0% 380338 7712211 341045 124 227307368675 142291 279 303 91 -4 +1 +0 +1 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 227307369676 142291 00 304 91 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIN 38% 235209 48817 21643 72 230310381691 151291 279 309 95 -1 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.5
202927 MLB MLEMIN 52% 267238 54918 24723 83 229309380689 150290 279 308 95 -2 +0 +0 +1 +6 0.6
203028 MLB MLEMIN 60% 286255 591019 26773 83 228308376684 148289 279 306 93 -2 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.5
203129 MLB MLEMIN 62% 290259 581018 26783 62 227305371677 145288 279 303 91 -3 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.3
203230 MLB MLEMIN 63% 290259 581018 26783 52 224302365667 141286 279 300 89 -4 +0 -2 +1 +6 0.2
203331 MLB MLEMIN 63% 276247 54917 24763 32 220297354652 135282 289 293 85 -5 -0 -3 +1 +6 -0.1
202826 MLB CTXMIN 38% 8980 18303 8241 31 230310382692 152291 279 310 95 -0 +0 +0 +0 +2 0.2
202927 MLB CTXMIN 52% 139123 29514 13372 41 230309380690 151291 279 309 95 -1 +0 +0 +0 +3 0.3
203028 MLB CTXMIN 60% 171152 35615 15462 52 229308377685 148289 279 307 93 -1 +0 -0 +1 +4 0.3
203129 MLB CTXMIN 62% 179159 36615 16482 41 227305372677 145288 279 304 91 -2 +0 -1 +1 +4 0.2
203230 MLB CTXMIN 63% 182162 37615 16492 31 224302366668 141286 279 300 89 -2 +0 -1 +1 +4 0.1
203331 MLB CTXMIN 63% 175156 35615 15482 21 220297355652 135282 279 294 85 -3 +0 -2 +1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 935832 19032527 8325211 217 228307376683 148292 279 303 88 -10 +1 -4 +3 +20 1.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 13222319 581758 155 228307375683 147292 279 303 88 -7 +1 -3 +2 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 25302244 499791173 23472132 10028 222305365670 143291 289 299 88 -19 +2 -7 +7 +40 2.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 12820319 601858 267 222304366670 144290 289 299 88 -7 +1 -2 +2 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 211 PAwOBA .385 → .302 (−83)K% 25.6% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.59%÷1.000×1.270——32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.64%÷1.000×0.710—×0.98810.97%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.790—×0.9880.74%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.000×0.920×0.958×0.98826.13%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.810×0.958×0.9883.83%
Triples /BIP1.67%÷1.000×0.850×0.958×0.9881.34%
Home runs /BIP5.83%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9884.61%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .385 → .302; ISO .178 → .138; BABIP .383 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 136 PAwOBA .356 → .302 (−54)K% 24.3% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.26%÷1.000×1.220——29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.56%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0126.77%
HBP% /PA2.21%—×0.870—×1.0121.94%
Singles /BIP33.72%÷1.000×0.920×1.006×1.01231.59%
Doubles /BIP3.49%÷1.000×0.840×1.006×1.0122.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×1.006×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP4.65%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0123.77%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .356 → .302; ISO .126 → .101; BABIP .390 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 161 PAwOBA .446 → .347 (−99)K% 23.6% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.60%÷0.994×1.360——32.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.12%÷1.054×0.690—×0.99013.68%
HBP% /PA3.11%—×0.780—×0.9902.40%
Singles /BIP22.89%÷1.029×0.920×0.965×0.99019.56%
Doubles /BIP9.64%÷1.032×0.830×0.965×0.9907.41%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷1.000×0.910×0.965×0.9901.05%
Home runs /BIP9.64%÷0.898×0.800—×0.9908.50%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .446 → .347; ISO .281 → .240; BABIP .368 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 68 PAwOBA .252 → .194 (−58)K% 32.4% → 42.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.35%÷0.979×1.270——41.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.35%÷0.989×0.710—×0.9985.27%
HBP% /PA1.47%—×0.790—×0.9981.16%
Singles /BIP13.16%÷0.990×0.920×0.984×0.99812.01%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷1.088×0.810×0.984×0.9983.85%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.943×0.850×0.984×0.9982.33%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷0.962×0.800—×0.9984.37%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .252 → .194; ISO .167 → .126; BABIP .211 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 18 PAwOBA .299 → .187 (−112)K% 33.3% → 48.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷0.998×1.440——48.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA33.33%÷0.981×0.620—×0.96520.34%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷1.028×0.820—×0.9650.00%
Doubles /BIP16.67%÷0.979×0.720—×0.96511.83%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.006×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .299 → .187; ISO .083 → .056; BABIP .167 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 85 PAwOBA .282 → .211 (−71)K% 18.8% → 25.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.82%÷0.994×1.360——25.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷0.976×0.690——8.32%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP20.34%÷1.096×0.920×0.957—16.33%
Doubles /BIP3.39%÷1.019×0.830×0.957—2.64%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.962×0.910×0.957—0.00%
Home runs /BIP3.39%÷0.962×0.800——2.82%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .282 → .211; ISO .107 → .083; BABIP .246 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).