Cameron Nohos — OGILVIE

Cameron Nohos P ACL Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'8" / 235 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%23.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	1	4	22	3	2	0	33%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	1	4	22	3	2	0	33%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	1	4	22	3	2	0	33%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	0.0%	6.75	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	12	62	296	93	32	10	63%	3.3	22.1%	13.2%	8.8%	4.4%	7.40	5.34	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	12	62	296	93	32	10	63%	3.3	22.1%	13.2%	8.8%	4.4%	7.40	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	SD	12	7	38	179	58	20	1	58%	3.1	32.4%	11.2%	21.2%	0.6%	6.21	2.09	—
2026	23	A RAW	SD	7	5	24	117	35	12	9	71%	3.5	29.9%	10.3%	19.7%	7.7%	9.25	6.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	62	263	62	27	8	100%	5.7	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.45	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	63	266	64	26	8	100%	5.7	24.1%	9.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.34	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	63	266	64	26	8	100%	6.3	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	62	262	63	26	8	100%	6.2	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.36	4.36	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	27	114	27	12	4	100%	5.4	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.55	4.49	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	42	177	43	17	5	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.45	4.38	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	50	211	51	21	7	100%	6.2	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.40	4.36	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	54	22	7	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	171	723	174	71	22	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.02	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	83	26	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		22	13	66	318	68	41	13	59%	3.0	21.5%	12.9%	8.5%	4.1%	7.36	5.19	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	39	200	964	207	125	40	59%	3.0	21.5%	12.9%	8.5%	4.1%	7.36	5.19	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cameron Nohos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	23.1%	11.2%	3.1%	—	4.37	24.0%	14.0%	188	-0.26	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	89
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	87
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	87
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	81
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	80
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	78
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	78
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	23.9%	10.1%	1.17	4.44
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68