Mason McConnaughey

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1047ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	8	7	21	3.48	4.31	19.5%	7.3%	—	K 11.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 6.92
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.76	4.76	18.2%	8.7%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBTEX	5	5	29	4.73	4.67	20.0%	8.4%	0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBTEX	9	9	52	4.61	4.54	21.1%	8.2%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 4.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsIan Bedell (age 23) · Logan Evans (age 23) · Levi Wells (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%18.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	21	82	16	6	3	88%	2.6	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	6.8%	3.48	6.92	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	21	82	16	6	3	88%	2.6	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	6.8%	3.48	6.92	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	21	82	16	6	3	88%	2.6	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	3.7%	3.48	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	97	410	82	34	13	100%	5.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.60	4.54	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	102	432	91	35	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.41	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	109	460	100	37	14	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.35	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	106	446	97	36	14	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.39	4.38	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	101	425	92	35	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.3%	13.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.47	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	395	85	34	13	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.60	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	85	358	75	32	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.77	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	320	66	30	12	100%	5.8	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	3.8%	4.86	4.98	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	283	57	27	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	4.0%	5.07	5.20	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	29	122	25	10	4	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.67	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	52	220	46	18	7	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.61	4.54	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	71	300	65	24	10	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.48	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	77	325	71	27	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.52	4.51	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	80	338	73	28	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.3%	13.3%	3.4%	4.57	4.60	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	77	325	70	28	12	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	65	27	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.8%	4.83	4.92	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	66	279	58	26	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	4.1%	5.02	5.14	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	60	253	51	24	11	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	4.3%	5.24	5.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	586	2474	524	213	90	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	3.6%	4.73	4.39	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	73	31	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	3.6%	4.73	4.39	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		8	7	21	82	10	7	6	88%	2.6	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	6.8%	3.48	6.92	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	68	200	794	93	66	54	88%	2.6	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	6.8%	3.48	6.92	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 14 IPFIP 5.54 → 6.92 (+1.37)K% 15.8% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.740	11.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×1.180	8.28%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.000	×1.300	6.84%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.54 → 6.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Rangers · 7 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.76 (+1.01)K% 28.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.680	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason McConnaughey (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.43	21.0%	12.8%	308	-0.33	—	—	—
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	78
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	78
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	76
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	76
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	76
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	75
Frank German R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	15.3%	8.7%	4.2%	.327	4.11	26.0%	14.2%	58	-1.11	3.10	218	75
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	74
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	74
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	74
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	74
Manuel Espinoza R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP-	4.42	17.7%	9.7%	2.9%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	275	74
Sam Whiting R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.320	4.88	17.1%	3.5%	105	+0.76	4.12	177	73
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	73
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	73
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	73
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	73
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	93	20.9%	8.5%	1.27	4.59
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*