Alberto Arias

P DSL Orioles Black

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 198 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Orioles B…	1	0	3	0.00	1.10	33.3%	0.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.29
2026	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	11	6	33	2.73	2.55	23.4%	11.3%	—	K 15.9% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.55
2027PROJ	19	MLBBAL	3	3	20	4.95	4.95	20.7%	12.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBBAL	3	3	15	4.78	4.70	21.4%	11.6%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsAlex Ayala Jr. (age 20) · Matt Osterberg (age 22) · Kelvin Rosario (age 17)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%20.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	1	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	15.9%	14.2%	1.7%	0.0%	2.73	3.55	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	15.9%	14.2%	1.7%	0.0%	2.73	3.55	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	6	33	141	33	16	0	55%	3.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	0.0%	2.73	2.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	BAL	3	3	20	84	17	11	2	100%	6.7	20.7%	12.9%	7.8%	2.9%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BAL	5	5	31	132	28	15	4	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	+0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	15	63	14	7	2	100%	5.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	65	14	8	2	100%	5.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	183	104	26	100%	5.8	21.4%	11.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		12	6	36	150	25	20	0	50%	3.0	17.0%	13.3%	3.6%	0.0%	2.50	3.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	833	141	111	0	50%	3.0	17.0%	13.3%	3.6%	0.0%	2.50	3.36	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alberto Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	20.7%	12.9%	2.9%	—	4.70	21.4%	9.7%	31	-0.25	—	—	—
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	82
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	81
Kelvin Rosario L 2024 · 4.69 FIP	17	SP-	4.69	16.7%	11.2%	2.9%	.280	6.63	15.9%	-2.9%	54	+1.94	4.34	126	80
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	78
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	78
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	78
Victor Cabreja L 2022 · 3.79 FIP	20	SW	3.79	17.0%	13.0%	0.9%	.348	4.42	11.2%	1.7%	146	+0.63	3.79	254	77
Hector Acosta L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	19	SP-	5.05	15.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.313	5.38	6.6%	-2.9%	47	+0.33	3.57	123	76
Adam Macko L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	18	SW	3.88	22.4%	14.6%	1.5%	.353	3.64	27.2%	12.4%	72	-0.24	3.40	406	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	75
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	75
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	74
Luis Viloria L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	19	SW	4.18	14.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.255	4.83	22.6%	4.3%	39	+0.65	3.16	101	74
Edgardo Ibarra L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	19	SW	5.37	16.2%	16.6%	2.8%	.250	5.26	14.4%	-5.7%	63	-0.11	5.26	142	74
Melkis Hernández L 2024 · 3.78 FIP	19	SW	3.78	17.8%	12.3%	1.2%	.343	4.37	18.7%	2.4%	197	+0.59	3.78	334	74
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	74
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	74
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	73
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.1%	12.1%	1.10	4.85
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19