Victor Cabreja — OGILVIE

Victor Cabreja P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%10.0%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%-0.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL5050

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	14	6	35	144	36	15	1	43%	2.5	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	0.9%	4.67	3.79	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	14	6	35	144	36	15	1	43%	2.5	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	0.7%	4.67	2.70	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	13	4	35	138	32	16	1	31%	2.7	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	1.0%	2.34	4.18	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	13	4	35	138	32	16	1	31%	2.7	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	1.0%	2.34	4.18	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	13	4	35	138	32	16	1	31%	2.7	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	0.7%	2.34	3.01	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	5.0%	4.43	5.54	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	5.0%	4.43	5.54	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	3.3%	4.43	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	9.3%	8.6%	0.7%	1.6%	2.89	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	9.3%	8.6%	0.7%	1.6%	2.89	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	12.7%	7.2%	5.5%	1.5%	2.89	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	14.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.3%	5.99	6.26	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	14.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.3%	5.99	6.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PIT	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	19.0%	10.3%	8.8%	4.2%	5.99	5.12	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	6	24	2	3	1	0%	1.1	10.0%	10.8%	-0.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.53	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	79	355	65	37	15	—	—	18.4%	10.3%	8.1%	4.1%	5.95	6.21	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	86	0	91	383	49	40	11	0%	1.1	12.8%	10.4%	2.4%	2.8%	5.30	5.24	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	86	0	91	383	56	39	11	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.1%	4.4%	2.8%	5.13	5.07	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	85	0	89	377	56	38	11	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.1%	4.8%	2.9%	5.08	5.07	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	83	0	87	366	55	37	11	0%	1.0	14.9%	10.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	79	0	83	350	51	36	11	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.4%	4.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	74	0	78	328	54	33	11	0%	1.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	5.18	5.17	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	37	0	39	165	21	17	5	0%	1.1	12.8%	10.4%	2.4%	2.8%	5.30	5.24	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	57	0	60	253	37	26	7	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.1%	4.4%	2.8%	5.13	5.07	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	66	0	69	291	43	29	8	0%	1.0	14.9%	10.1%	4.8%	2.9%	5.08	5.07	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	70	0	73	308	46	31	9	0%	1.0	14.9%	10.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	69	0	72	304	45	32	9	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.4%	4.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	67	0	70	296	48	29	10	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	5.18	5.17	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	384	1621	240	165	48	0%	1.0	14.8%	10.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.15	4.78	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	125	86	25	0%	1.1	14.8%	10.2%	4.7%	3.0%	5.15	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		97	29	263	1105	143	117	31	30%	2.7	12.9%	10.6%	2.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.89	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	22	200	840	109	89	24	30%	2.7	12.9%	10.6%	2.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.89	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Cabreja (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	10.0%	10.8%	2.8%	—	5.13	14.0%	3.9%	271	-0.40	—	—	—
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	85
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	78
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	74
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	74
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	73
Nestor Bautista L 2016 · 5.98 FIP	24	SU	5.98	6.9%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	3.53	21.7%	17.6%	92	-2.45	1.76	108	73
Helmis Rodriguez L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SW	4.92	11.0%	12.3%	2.2%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	336	73
Luis Moncada L 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SW	4.88	13.2%	12.7%	2.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	296	71
Ben Sheckler L 2018 · 4.53 FIP	23	SW	4.53	11.2%	7.6%	2.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	133	70
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	70
Kenny Hernandez L 2022 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	15.4%	10.0%	3.4%	.332	3.99	16.5%	5.8%	74	-0.96	3.16	424	70
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	70
Nick Dombkowski L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	13.2%	8.0%	4.0%	.243	5.19	17.1%	8.5%	260	+0.01	3.71	420	70
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2019 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	13.5%	6.9%	3.2%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	184	70
Ronnie Glenn L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	13.1%	11.4%	2.9%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	212	69
Elniery García L 2018 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	11.4%	10.8%	2.3%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	325	69
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	69
Dan Lietz L 2018 · 5.82 FIP	24	SU	5.82	11.1%	13.2%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	188	69
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	68
Cameron Ming L 2019 · 5.54 FIP	23	SU	5.54	14.3%	9.4%	4.5%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	111	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	84	14.1%	10.3%	1.14	5.21
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25