Kenny Hernandez
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 9.3% | 11.6% | -2.3% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.79 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 9.3% | 11.6% | -2.3% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.85 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 36% | 4.3 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.90 | 3.99 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 36% | 4.3 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 15.9% | 1.5% | 3.90 | 2.83 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 30 | 1 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 31 | 1 | 3% | 3.2 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 0.4% | 1.88 | 3.20 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 30 | 1 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 31 | 1 | 3% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 0.2% | 1.88 | 2.48 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 17 | 102 | 443 | 88 | 34 | 17 | 71% | 4.2 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 4.96 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 17 | 102 | 443 | 88 | 34 | 17 | 71% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 4.54 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 12 | 96 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 12 | 38% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 12 | 96 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 12 | 38% | 3.0 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 15 | 14 | 74 | 329 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 93% | 4.9 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 5.96 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 15 | 14 | 74 | 329 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 93% | 4.9 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 5.96 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 62 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.32 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 84 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 121 | 49 | 438 | 1907 | 294 | 181 | 43 | 40% | 3.6 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 22 | 200 | 871 | 134 | 83 | 20 | 40% | 3.6 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenny Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.66 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 138 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 78 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 75 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 73 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 72 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 72 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 71 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 68 |
| Chris Reed L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 67 |
| Andy Otero L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 67 |
| Onelki Garcia L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.07 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 164 | 67 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 66 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 66 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 66 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 66 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 64 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 64 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 64 |
| Zach Logue L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 700 | 64 |
| Eric Wooten L 2023 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 64 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 325 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |