Kenny Hernandez — OGILVIE

Kenny Hernandez P Springfield Cardinals

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%20.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	0	9	43	4	5	0	0%	1.6	9.3%	11.6%	-2.3%	0.0%	1.93	3.79	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	0	9	43	4	5	0	0%	1.6	9.3%	11.6%	-2.3%	0.0%	1.93	3.85	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	14	5	60	271	61	18	4	36%	4.3	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	2.1%	3.90	3.99	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	14	5	60	271	61	18	4	36%	4.3	22.5%	6.6%	15.9%	1.5%	3.90	2.83	—
2019	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	30	1	96	405	83	31	1	3%	3.2	15.2%	9.0%	6.1%	0.4%	1.88	3.16	—
2019	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	30	1	96	405	83	31	1	3%	3.2	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	0.2%	1.88	2.48	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	17	102	443	88	34	17	71%	4.2	15.6%	9.0%	6.6%	4.0%	5.12	5.15	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	17	102	443	88	34	17	71%	4.2	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	3.8%	5.12	4.54	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	12	96	416	81	37	12	38%	3.0	15.4%	10.0%	5.4%	3.4%	4.48	4.95	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	12	96	416	81	37	12	38%	3.0	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.19	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	15	14	74	329	67	32	5	93%	4.9	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	1.7%	5.96	3.99	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	15	14	74	329	67	32	5	93%	4.9	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	1.7%	5.96	3.99	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	15	14	74	329	67	32	5	93%	4.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	1.5%	5.96	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	STL	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	STL	47	0	49	207	42	21	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.70	4.76	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	STL	44	0	46	195	39	20	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.90	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	STL	41	0	43	182	36	19	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.7%	9.1%	3.5%	4.96	5.07	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	0	15	63	13	6	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.70	4.76	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	STL	23	0	24	101	20	11	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.90	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	STL	27	0	28	118	23	13	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.7%	9.1%	3.5%	4.96	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	56	30	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	90	27	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.3%	4.85	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		121	49	438	1907	294	181	45	40%	3.6	15.4%	9.5%	5.9%	2.4%	4.17	4.29	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	22	200	871	134	83	21	40%	3.6	15.4%	9.5%	5.9%	2.4%	4.17	4.29	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenny Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	20.0%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.90	19.9%	9.6%	138	+0.24	—	—	—
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	77
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	77
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	76
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	74
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	73
Andy Oliver L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP-	3.93	19.9%	9.9%	2.3%	.321	7.12	16.6%	2.7%	21	+3.19	3.93	165	73
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	72
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	70
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	70
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	70
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	69
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	69
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	68
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	67
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	67
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	66
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	65
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	64
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	20.0%	10.3%	1.23	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86