Kenny Hernandez
P
Springfield Cardinals
+0.6
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.0%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 5 | 60 | 271 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.90 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 30 | 1 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 31 | 1 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 0.4% | 1.88 | 3.17 | +2.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 24 | 17 | 102 | 443 | 88 | 34 | 17 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.12 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 32 | 12 | 96 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 12 | 15.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 15 | 14 | 74 | 329 | 67 | 32 | 5 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 5.96 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 69 | 29 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 68 | 29 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 65 | 28 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 59 | 27 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 44 | 23 | 8 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 49 | 438 | 1907 | 294 | 181 | 45 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.28 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 22 | 200 | 871 | 134 | 83 | 21 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenny Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 22.3% | 12.7% | 208 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 87 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 86 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 84 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 81 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 80 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.33 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | .329 | 4.33 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.00 | 2.70 | 230 | 80 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 79 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 79 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 79 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 78 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.36 | 2.22 | 286 | 78 |
| Jordan Mills L 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 77 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 76 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.19 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .306 | 3.76 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 96 | +0.57 | 2.82 | 414 | 76 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 75 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.