Kohl Drake
P
Reno Aces
Age 26
LHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%24.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 4 | 47 | 217 | 55 | 20 | 4 | 29% | 3.3 | 16.3% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 6.36 | 4.69 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 4 | 47 | 217 | 55 | 20 | 4 | 29% | 3.3 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 6.36 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 19 | 106 | 418 | 148 | 31 | 9 | 83% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 2.29 | 3.28 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 19 | 106 | 418 | 148 | 31 | 9 | 83% | 4.6 | 35.4% | 7.4% | 28.0% | 2.2% | 2.29 | 2.29 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 89 | 376 | 106 | 36 | 10 | 95% | 4.5 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 89 | 376 | 106 | 36 | 10 | 95% | 4.5 | 28.2% | 9.6% | 18.6% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | 17 | 16 | 66 | 311 | 60 | 31 | 11 | 94% | 3.9 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 6.92 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 131 | 585 | 126 | 56 | 20 | — | — | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 26 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 4 | — | — | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 124 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 119 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 113 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 104 | 43 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 88 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 91 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 89 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 65 | 376 | 1586 | 370 | 146 | 55 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 78 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 58 | 308 | 1322 | 289 | 133 | 41 | 78% | 4.2 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 858 | 188 | 86 | 27 | 78% | 4.2 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kohl Drake (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.47 | 23.5% | 14.4% | 360 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 76 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 75 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 75 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.75 | 3.21 | 372 | 75 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 75 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 73 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 73 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 73 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 73 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 72 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 72 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 72 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 71 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.75 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.03 | 402 | 71 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 71 |
| Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.35 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 302 | 70 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 70 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.85 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 239 | +0.34 | 3.41 | 675 | 70 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.37 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .334 | 4.05 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 209 | +0.68 | 3.37 | 440 | 69 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 110 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 1.30 | 4.46 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |