Kohl Drake — OGILVIE

Kohl Drake P Reno Aces

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%21.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD5060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	47	217	55	20	4	29%	3.3	16.3%	11.9%	4.4%	2.9%	6.36	4.81	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	47	217	55	20	4	29%	3.3	16.3%	11.9%	4.4%	2.9%	6.36	4.81	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	47	217	55	20	4	29%	3.3	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	1.8%	6.36	3.14	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	26.9%	8.5%	18.5%	2.6%	2.29	3.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	26.9%	8.5%	18.5%	2.6%	2.29	3.32	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	35.4%	7.4%	28.0%	2.2%	2.29	2.29	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.23	4.18	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.23	4.18	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	2.7%	4.23	3.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	5	21	95	17	7	5	100%	4.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	5.3%	6.53	5.62	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	25	23	97	460	81	50	19	92%	3.9	15.2%	9.9%	5.3%	4.5%	7.24	5.54	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	25	23	97	460	81	50	19	92%	3.9	15.2%	9.9%	5.3%	4.5%	7.24	5.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	ARI	20	18	76	365	64	43	14	90%	3.8	17.5%	11.8%	5.8%	3.8%	7.43	5.22	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	ARI	5	5	21	95	17	7	5	100%	4.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	5.3%	6.53	5.41	-0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	ARI	5	5	21	95	17	7	5	100%	4.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	5.3%	6.53	5.41	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	11	45	9	4	1	100%	5.3	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.2%	4.19	4.19	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	11	46	10	4	1	100%	5.5	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.10	4.10	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	108	505	90	54	20	—	—	17.9%	10.7%	7.2%	4.0%	6.94	5.41	-0.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	31	132	90	54	20	—	—	68.4%	40.9%	27.6%	15.4%	23.83	10.95	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	128	541	120	45	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.4%	13.8%	3.5%	4.55	4.57	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	128	541	119	46	19	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.59	4.63	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	122	516	112	45	19	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.1%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	115	486	104	43	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.8%	4.81	4.91	-0.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	453	95	42	18	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	4.1%	4.99	5.11	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	122	515	114	43	17	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.47	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	122	515	113	44	17	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.5%	13.5%	3.3%	4.48	4.52	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	116	490	107	42	17	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.6%	13.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.63	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	109	460	99	41	17	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.6%	4.69	4.79	-0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	102	431	90	40	17	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	602	2549	549	221	90	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.66	4.33	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	182	73	30	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.66	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		82	65	339	1471	305	144	50	79%	4.1	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.78	4.45	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	868	180	85	29	79%	4.1	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.78	4.45	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kohl Drake (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	23.5%	8.6%	3.1%	—	4.65	22.0%	13.5%	378	+0.35	—	—	—
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	82
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	79
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	79
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	76
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	76
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	75
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	74
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	74
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	73
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	73
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	73
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	73
Logan Allen L 2023 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	22.6%	9.0%	2.7%	.312	4.78	19.1%	10.3%	418	+0.94	3.67	808	72
Caleb Smith L 2017 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP-	3.43	21.5%	8.0%	2.1%	.268	4.70	26.3%	16.5%	245	+1.27	3.31	784	72
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	72
Colton Gordon L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	24	SP	4.36	22.1%	10.7%	3.2%	.293	4.51	18.6%	13.2%	399	+0.15	2.73	581	72
Cody Bradford L 2023 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	19.5%	4.9%	3.1%	.291	3.64	19.1%	14.4%	111	-0.13	3.37	456	72
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	72
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.3%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.55	22.1%	15.7%	190	+0.10	2.45	476	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	119	22.0%	8.7%	1.39	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58