Kellan Oakes — OGILVIE

Kellan Oakes P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 201 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%21.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	13	76	355	88	40	13	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	21	13	76	355	88	40	13	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	9	1	35	141	41	9	1	11%	3.9	29.1%	6.4%	22.7%	0.7%	3.57	1.84	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	12	12	41	214	47	31	12	100%	3.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	5.6%	9.52	6.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	326	73	34	10	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.64	4.57	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	79	334	77	32	10	100%	5.6	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.42	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	80	338	79	32	10	100%	5.7	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.39	4.33	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	80	338	80	31	10	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	333	85	28	10	100%	6.1	25.6%	8.5%	17.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.07	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	76	323	82	28	10	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	3.1%	4.17	4.16	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	309	78	28	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	3.3%	4.24	4.29	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	69	290	72	27	10	100%	6.2	24.9%	9.2%	15.6%	3.5%	4.37	4.46	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	271	66	26	10	100%	5.8	24.4%	9.6%	14.9%	3.7%	4.55	4.67	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	36	17	5	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.52	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	55	232	53	23	7	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	65	274	64	26	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.28	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	70	27	9	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	77	26	9	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.5%	17.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.02	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	75	26	9	100%	5.8	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	3.1%	4.12	4.11	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	72	26	9	100%	6.2	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	3.2%	4.19	4.24	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	67	25	9	100%	5.8	24.9%	9.2%	15.6%	3.4%	4.32	4.41	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	61	258	63	25	9	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.6%	14.9%	3.6%	4.49	4.61	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	563	2379	579	219	74	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.1%	4.31	3.91	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	206	78	26	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.2%	15.1%	3.1%	4.31	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		21	13	76	355	67	46	16	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	34	200	934	175	122	43	62%	3.6	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	4.6%	6.75	5.69	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kellan Oakes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.5%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.44	22.9%	13.1%	236	-0.36	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	81
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	79
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	77
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	77
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	70	24.1%	9.4%	1.23	4.39
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59