Kellan Oakes
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 201 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%23.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 14 | 6 | 50 | 220 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 43% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 86 | 369 | 95 | 38 | 12 | — | — | 25.6% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 37 | 158 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 34 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 0 | 175 | 739 | 183 | 64 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.75 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 73 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 6 | 50 | 220 | 45 | 28 | 9 | 43% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 24 | 200 | 874 | 179 | 111 | 35 | 43% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kellan Oakes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 24.4% | 15.7% | 112 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Brett Gillis R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 80 |
| Rico Garcia R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 79 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 79 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 79 |
| Geno Encina R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 79 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 78 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 78 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 78 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 77 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 77 |
| Travis Herrin R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 76 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 37 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 1.16 | 4.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |