Esteban Mejia

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	10	10	28	3.25	1.55	36.4%	12.4%	—	K 24.7% · BB 15.5% · FIP 2.97
2025	18	MIX2 levels	14	14	52	2.94	2.31	29.5%	13.7%	—	K 20.4% · BB 16.9% · FIP 3.51
2026	19	ABAL	22	22	52	9.80	5.85	21.4%	25.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 29.9% · FIP 6.59
2027PROJ	20	MLBBAL	15	15	80	5.81	5.81	20.3%	20.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBAL	11	11	58	5.62	5.54	20.4%	17.6%	-0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBBAL	21	21	116	5.24	5.04	22.4%	15.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control47Command43FB velo69

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsTanner McDougal (age 20) · Kohl Franklin (age 22) · Nolan Perry (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%20.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.3%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$18M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	24.7%	15.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.25	2.97	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	10	10	28	121	44	15	0	100%	2.8	36.4%	12.4%	24.0%	0.0%	3.25	1.55	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	20.4%	16.9%	3.6%	0.0%	2.94	3.51	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	52	227	67	31	0	100%	3.7	29.5%	13.7%	15.9%	0.0%	2.94	2.31	—
2026	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
2026	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	15.8%	29.9%	-14.1%	1.9%	9.80	6.59	—
2026	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	22	22	52	276	59	70	4	100%	2.4	21.4%	25.4%	-4.0%	1.4%	9.80	5.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BAL	15	15	80	338	68	68	9	100%	5.3	20.3%	20.0%	0.3%	2.7%	5.81	5.81	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	118	497	102	88	13	100%	5.6	20.4%	17.6%	2.8%	2.7%	5.55	5.47	-0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	160	674	151	102	18	100%	5.5	22.4%	15.2%	7.3%	2.7%	5.17	4.97	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	BAL	32	32	175	739	175	100	20	100%	5.5	23.7%	13.5%	10.2%	2.6%	4.84	4.64	+0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	BAL	32	32	179	757	186	94	20	100%	5.6	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.6%	4.59	4.43	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	BAL	31	31	180	760	190	90	20	100%	5.8	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	180	760	192	89	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.6%	4.33	4.27	+1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	177	749	189	89	20	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.31	+1.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	172	726	182	87	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.0%	13.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.39	+1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	164	694	172	85	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.52	+0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	BAL	26	26	154	652	160	82	20	100%	5.9	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.70	+0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	608	146	78	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.3%	4.78	4.90	0.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	133	562	133	75	20	100%	6.1	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	3.6%	4.99	5.13	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	58	245	50	43	7	100%	5.3	20.4%	17.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.62	5.54	-0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	116	490	110	74	14	100%	5.5	22.4%	15.2%	7.3%	2.8%	5.24	5.04	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	148	625	148	85	17	100%	5.5	23.7%	13.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.91	4.71	+0.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	BAL	29	29	160	676	166	84	18	100%	5.5	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	2.7%	4.65	4.49	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	165	697	174	82	19	100%	5.9	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.47	4.35	+1.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	168	709	179	83	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.39	4.33	+1.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	168	709	179	84	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.38	+1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	163	688	173	83	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	12.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	164	80	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	+0.7
2037	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	147	621	152	78	20	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	+0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	137	578	139	74	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	0.0
2039	32	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	127	536	127	71	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	13.3%	10.4%	3.7%	5.08	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	297	1713	7231	1759	922	214	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.29	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	205	108	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		46	46	132	624	120	140	5	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	70	200	945	182	212	8	100%	2.9	19.2%	22.4%	-3.2%	0.8%	5.73	4.77	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Esteban Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	20.3%	20.0%	2.7%	—	4.97	22.4%	7.2%	452	-0.84	—	—	—
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	91
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	82
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	81
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	80
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	80
Justin Lange R 2022 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	20.2%	21.8%	1.5%	.303	4.73	24.7%	5.9%	85	-0.27	4.55	144	80
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	78
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	78
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	77
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	76
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	76
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	75
Matthew Thompson R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP	5.03	17.6%	13.8%	3.0%	.376	5.27	18.2%	3.8%	339	+0.24	5.03	411	75
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	75
Jeter Martinez R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	18	SP	4.72	18.1%	21.1%	0.9%	.282	4.90	15.6%	-0.4%	129	+0.18	3.52	216	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.1	155	24.0%	13.2%	1.09	4.71
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*